#LSEThinks

By LSE authors

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    A global trade war is one more reason for the UK to prioritise its future relationship with the EU

A global trade war is one more reason for the UK to prioritise its future relationship with the EU

The world is amid a global trade war which currently shows no signs of dissipating. How could this global trade dispute affect Britain and the Brexit process? Josh De Lyon (LSE) argues that it is becoming increasingly clear that the UK is beginning to prioritise its future relationship with the EU, and that potential trade agreements with third countries appear […]

Hard cheese? Dairy products will be more expensive after Brexit

Britain imports a lot of dairy produce, nearly all of it from the EU. At home, the industry employs a large number of workers from the rest of the EU. Jan Bakker and Nikhil Datta (LSE) predict that dairy will become more expensive after Brexit. Even if Britons switch to UK-produced dairy, it will take some years for domestic […]

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    A paler shade of grey? It is hard to see how any in-between version of Brexit can prevail

A paler shade of grey? It is hard to see how any in-between version of Brexit can prevail

A simple metaphor captures the dilemmas around Brexit: some want white, others want black. To state the blindingly obvious, the two are mutually exclusive. In this post, Iain Begg (LSE) considers the two logically coherent positions on EU membership. It is hard to see how any in-between solution – any shade of grey – can prevail. 

Leaving the EU means, […]

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    ‘New poll suggests…’: How to tell when public opinion has really changed

‘New poll suggests…’: How to tell when public opinion has really changed

On a daily basis we are being presented with new opinion polls on various social and political issues, but do these really represent public attitudes? Using a statistical method called bootstrapping to estimate sampling variance, Patrick Sturgis and Jouni Kuha explain how such an approach can improve the quality of debate about UK public opinion.

The volume and frequency of […]

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    The UK’s industrial supply chains are dependent on European manufacturers

The UK’s industrial supply chains are dependent on European manufacturers

What impact will Brexit have on UK manufacturing? As Bob Hancké points out, the domestic economic effects of Brexit are dynamic, not static. While some industries will be devastated by Brexit, resources may switch to other areas which, in theory, could thrive. But for this to happen, the UK needs to revamp its industrial supply chains, which are dependent on close links […]

LSE Continental Breakfast 10: Brexit and multilateralism

Multilateral institutions – from the EU to NATO to the G-summits – are under strain. How does Brexit fit into this trend? Horatio Mortimer (LSE) reports on an expert discussion held at the LSE under Chatham House rules in June 2018.
Brexit, Germany and the multilateral system
Brexit is bad news for the EU, and perhaps especially for Germany, the EU’s largest and […]

The Brexit dividend: expect a lost decade of economic underperformance and political crisis

Contrary to some predictions, Britain’s economy has not crashed in the two years since the EU referendum. But growth has slowed markedly, productivity is down and investment is on hold. Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE) looks at the effect the prolonged uncertainty about future trade arrangements is having on the economy.

In September 2016, a few months after the UK referendum vote to leave […]

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    Two years after the vote, there is little certainty where the UK-EU relationship is heading

Two years after the vote, there is little certainty where the UK-EU relationship is heading

Two years after the vote, there is little certainty regarding the UK’s political and economic future. Brexiters themselves are split between wanting a Singapore-on-Thames or a Belarus-on-Trent. Simon Hix (LSE) assesses where the UK-EU relationship is heading. He argues that despite persisting uncertainty, a No Deal is the least-preferred option of both the UK or the EU27, and hence the least likely. He suggests […]

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    Might economists be partly to blame for Trump and the prospect of a hard Brexit?

Might economists be partly to blame for Trump and the prospect of a hard Brexit?

The reasons for the Trump phenomenon and Brexit vote are many and various. But have we overlooked ways in which standard economics, by failing to take seriously the radical uncertainty endemic in modern political economies, has contributed to the populist turn? Richard Bronk (LSE) argues that by mischaracterising their profession as able to make precise forecasts of uncertain futures – an […]

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    The devil is in the detail: multinationals favour the customs union

The devil is in the detail: multinationals favour the customs union

In a customs union, goods cross borders seamlessly, but in a free trade agreement, border checks are needed to ensure conformity with rules of origin. Paola Conconi (ULB/LSE) explains why a customs union is key for multinationals to stay in the UK after Brexit.

Some members of Theresa May’s cabinet are pushing for a ‘soft’ Brexit, which would allow the UK to remain close […]