Economics of Brexit

Keeping zero tariffs is good economics, but the EU’s political interest matters too

Tariffs are a key element in any trade deal negotiated between the EU and the UK. Ozlem Taytas Ozturk (LSE) explains why and writes that while a zero tariff arrangement is in the economic interests of all the business sectors involved, the final deal may be swayed by politics. The EU may impose some tariffs in order to discourage […]

Clean break? Why the Sanitary and Phytosanitary framework matters

After Brexit, Britain wants to be able to diverge from the EU’s Sanitary and Phytosanitary frameworks so as to negotiate new trade deals. But to sell into the Single Market, the UK will have to continue to meet EU standards. Nazlı Gül Uysal (LSE) examines how the government has tackled this conundrum.

Trade in agri-food between the UK and the EU is a […]

Outside the Single Market, what kind of deal can Britain’s services sector hope for?

Professional and business services account for more than a tenth of the UK economy. Leaving the single market means it will no longer enjoy the passporting rights that give the financial sector smooth access to EU markets. John Catalfamo and Laura Arts (LSE) look at the limited options available to Theresa May as she tries to reconcile Brexiters’ demands for regulatory autonomy with […]

The effects of Brexit on UK growth and inflation

The full consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the EU were never going to be immediately perceptible, writes Francesco Papadia (Bruegel). As we approach the second anniversary of the referendum, we can compare the subsequent economic data for the UK and the euro area and see how it diverges from the trends established before the vote.

Ben Bernanke, former president of […]

On Brexit, Transition, Customs Partnership and Max Fac – a drama in four acts

The Brexit process has had its share of surprising twists and turns. But even seasoned observers were taken by surprise recently when the Sun reported: Brexiteers were urging Theresa May to extend the transition period. Experts have long agreed that the transition period currently provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement is unlikely to be long enough to successfully negotiate a […]

LSE Continental Breakfast 8: ‘follow’, ‘unfriend’ or ‘take a break’? Three Brexit scenarios envisaged

‘Follow’, ‘unfriend’ or ‘take a break’? Reporting on LSE Continental Breakfast discussions held under Chatham House rules among Italian and British economists, policy-makers and the public in Rome in early February 2018, Marina Cino Pagliarello (LSE) looks at the economic and political consequences of the three options still open to the UK. She then outlines the possibility of a Brexit that […]

The strong economy: how Brexit dishonesty began

Responding to the latest fall in GDP, the Chancellor described the UK economy as ‘strong’ and said it was making ‘significant progress’, blaming bad weather for the drop. Simon Wren-Lewis (Oxford University) says the media have been too ready to accept dishonesty from the government about the state of the economy.

The first quarter growth figures for the UK are […]

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    The Airbus case sits at the heart of the Brexit industrial equation

The Airbus case sits at the heart of the Brexit industrial equation

The Airbus case sits at the heart of the Brexit industrial equation.
If the EU takes an aggressive stance, the UK can penalise Airbus to bring Brussels back to the negotiating table, writes Nicolas Petit (École de Guerre Économique).

While an agreement on Brexit negotiations is far from being reached between the United Kingdom and the European Union, Brussels seems to […]

What will happen to health and social care for British pensioners living in the EU27?

In an extract from Next Steps: Implementing a Brexit deal for UK citizens living in the EU-27, Meghan Benton (left), Aliyyah Ahad, Michaela Benson (right), Katherine Collins, Helen McCarthy, and Karen O’Reilly (Migration Policy Institute) explain how access for Britons who use health, benefits and social care systems in the EU27 will change after Brexit. In Spain – where many elderly Britons […]

LSE Continental Breakfast 7: the business consequences of a breakdown in exit negotiations

The seventh Continental Breakfast seminar at the LSE, held under Chatham House rules, focused on the potential implications that a breakdown of the Brexit negotiations would have for UK businesses. The overall message was that the consequences of such a breakdown – a “no deal” outcome – would be severe. Angelos Angelou (LSE) reports on the discussion.

A “no deal” outcome […]