Economics of Brexit

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    Pushing the BoE to the limit: what a no-deal Brexit will mean for UK exchange and interest rates

Pushing the BoE to the limit: what a no-deal Brexit will mean for UK exchange and interest rates

The absence of a trade agreement between UK and EU will yield further depreciations of the pound relative to leading currencies, explain Michael Ellington and Costas Milas. This will then lead to a sharp cut in the Bank of England’s policy rate and to another round of quantitative easing. In other words, a no-deal Brexit will push the Bank […]

A rational backlash against globalisation

The vote for Brexit and the election of protectionist Donald Trump to the US presidency – two momentous markers of the ongoing pushback against globalisation – led some to question the rationality of voters. Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi (University of Chicago Booth School of Business) present a framework that demonstrates how the populist backlash against globalisation is actually a rational […]

Negotiating Single Market access with the EU: institutional lessons from Switzerland

Switzerland is in the midst of negotiating an institutional framework for some of its more important bilateral agreements with the EU. Laura Knöpfel (King’s College London) and Cenni Najy (University of Geneva) look at what institutional lessons can be learned for the UK as it tries to leave the EU while remaining partly in the Single Market.
Chapter 4 of […]

Will the Brexit cloud have a silver lining for conservationists?

Were we starting from a place where nature was fully protected and thriving, dismantling the structures and support provided by the EU would be a more worrying prospect, writes Mike Townsend (Woodland Trust). But while the EU provides many environmental benefits the state of the natural environment remains woeful. We must seize this opportunity to reframe nature conservation.

The UK’s […]

The IEA’s Plan A+ for ‘free trade’ is the product of fanaticism

The Institute of Economic Affairs has produced a document setting out a post-Brexit ‘free trade’ plan which would abandon ‘regulatory barriers’ that, it says, hold back British exports and stymie imports. Sean Swan (Gonzaga University) argues that it would have dangerous consequences for the NHS, manufacturing and food hygiene, and is not what British patients and consumers want.

The hard […]

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    Lessons from South Korea: What would a hard Brexit mean for British manufacturers?

Lessons from South Korea: What would a hard Brexit mean for British manufacturers?

The UK government has proposed maintaining a ‘common rulebook’ with the European Union following Brexit, which would in principle prevent non-tariff trade barriers from developing. But if this proposal fails and the UK leaves without a deal, how would British manufacturers be affected? Robert Basedow draws lessons from the South Korean car industry, noting that manufacturers based outside of […]

What if Britain rejoined the EU? Breaking up may be less hard than making up

If Britain ever sought to rejoin the EU, it could not be on the terms of membership we previously enjoyed, warns Iain Begg (LSE). The UK’s budget rebate, exemption from Schengen and opt-outs from the euro and judicial cooperation will not be on the table again. This would make rejoining a difficult sell to the British public.

A curiosity of […]

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    UK households are already suffering the consequences of the vote. The worst may be yet to come

UK households are already suffering the consequences of the vote. The worst may be yet to come

UK households are already suffering the consequences of the vote (close to one week’s wages), and macroeconomic indicators are not looking good. It has become harder to look on the bright side of Brexit, writes Elsa Leromain (LSE). To minimise the economic costs of Brexit the UK should remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union, she argues. 

An informal but important meeting […]

State aid and Brexit: the temptation for political intervention

State aid is currently regulated by the EU and, after Brexit, the government intends to transpose the rules into UK legislation, with the Competitions and Markets Authority overseeing the issue. Totis Kotsonis (Eversheds Sutherland) explains why future governments could be tempted to allow political intervention that EU membership precludes. 
The UK government has recently indicated its intention to transpose the EU state […]

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    Chequers is deeply flawed: a no deal Brexit is far preferable

Chequers is deeply flawed: a no deal Brexit is far preferable

The Chequers deal is deeply flawed on both economic as well as political grounds – a “no deal” Brexit would be a far preferable solution, argues Ruth Lea. In her opinion, a Chequers-style deal would be economically sub-optimal, tying the UK to the EU’s rulebook, but without any influence. On the contrary, in the event of a “no deal” Brexit, trading under […]