Economics of Brexit

What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Britain’s energy markets

Given what is happening at a macro political level, a no-deal Brexit looks increasingly possible. It’s the worst-case scenario for the UK’s energy markets, writes Alex Harrison (Hogan Lovells).

UK electricity and gas trade with the EU27 is worth approximately €6bn annually. Eighty percent of that trade is natural gas. The UK imports gas from the EU27, but the country is […]

No-deal Brexit: the biggest test yet for UK crisis management?

How should the government prepare for a no-deal Brexit? Until now, DExEU has been reluctant to communicate its activities to the public. John Connolly (University of the West of Scotland) and Andrew Judge (University of Glasgow) explain why co-ordinated planning across government departments, and clear communication with the public, are vital.

The news that the UK and EU are stepping up their preparations […]

It’s time for the EU to negotiate seriously

The UK white paper on Brexit should be given serious consideration, writes Guntram Wolff (Bruegel). While it breaks a number of European red lines, it is also an attempt to resolve some issues. The question is whether the EU will be ready to negotiate seriously. Geostrategic considerations suggest that it is time for it to do so.
After the British cabinet […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    The UK’s industrial supply chains are dependent on European manufacturers

The UK’s industrial supply chains are dependent on European manufacturers

What impact will Brexit have on UK manufacturing? As Bob Hancké points out, the domestic economic effects of Brexit are dynamic, not static. While some industries will be devastated by Brexit, resources may switch to other areas which, in theory, could thrive. But for this to happen, the UK needs to revamp its industrial supply chains, which are dependent on close links […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Cabinet resignations and the Chequers proposal could destabilise the economy

Cabinet resignations and the Chequers proposal could destabilise the economy

The stability of UK economy is at a critical stage – now that Theresa May’s leadership may be challenged following high-profile Cabinet resignations, and depending on how the EU reacts to the ‘soft’ Brexit approach agreed at Chequers. Michael Ellington and Costas Milas (University of Liverpool) explain how the pound’s exchange rate and volatility go hand in hand with […]

The Brexit dividend: expect a lost decade of economic underperformance and political crisis

Contrary to some predictions, Britain’s economy has not crashed in the two years since the EU referendum. But growth has slowed markedly, productivity is down and investment is on hold. Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE) looks at the effect the prolonged uncertainty about future trade arrangements is having on the economy.

In September 2016, a few months after the UK referendum vote to leave […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Two years after the vote, there is little certainty where the UK-EU relationship is heading

Two years after the vote, there is little certainty where the UK-EU relationship is heading

Two years after the vote, there is little certainty regarding the UK’s political and economic future. Brexiters themselves are split between wanting a Singapore-on-Thames or a Belarus-on-Trent. Simon Hix (LSE) assesses where the UK-EU relationship is heading. He argues that despite persisting uncertainty, a No Deal is the least-preferred option of both the UK or the EU27, and hence the least likely. He suggests […]

  • trump
    Permalink Photo: <a href=White House. Public domain" />Gallery

    Might economists be partly to blame for Trump and the prospect of a hard Brexit?

Might economists be partly to blame for Trump and the prospect of a hard Brexit?

The reasons for the Trump phenomenon and Brexit vote are many and various. But have we overlooked ways in which standard economics, by failing to take seriously the radical uncertainty endemic in modern political economies, has contributed to the populist turn? Richard Bronk (LSE) argues that by mischaracterising their profession as able to make precise forecasts of uncertain futures – an […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    The devil is in the detail: multinationals favour the customs union

The devil is in the detail: multinationals favour the customs union

In a customs union, goods cross borders seamlessly, but in a free trade agreement, border checks are needed to ensure conformity with rules of origin. Paola Conconi (ULB/LSE) explains why a customs union is key for multinationals to stay in the UK after Brexit.

Some members of Theresa May’s cabinet are pushing for a ‘soft’ Brexit, which would allow the UK to remain close […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Higher inflation, lower wages and decreasing output: Brexit is starting to negatively affect the UK economy

Higher inflation, lower wages and decreasing output: Brexit is starting to negatively affect the UK economy

The full economic consequences of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union will not be realised for many years. But as Thomas Sampson makes clear, two years after the referendum, we can already detect how Brexit is starting to affect the UK economy.

Brexit is yet to happen, but the economic effects of voting to leave are already being […]