Economics of Brexit

Rule-takers and rule-makers: why TBTs are so crucial to Brexit

At the heart of the wrangling over Brexit is the question of how much regulatory autonomy the UK is prepared to concede in exchange for access to the Single Market. It is these technical barriers to trade (TBTs) that inhibit countries from exporting to each other. Hayden Goudy and Elisa Kempe (LSE) set out what the UK can realistically hope for and predict […]

A soft Brexit is a compromise that would please no one

The outcome of most negotiations is a compromise in which all sides cede some ground. But Iain Begg (LSE) argues that ‘soft’ Brexit cannot offer an enduring compromise between ‘Brexiteers’ and ‘Remainers’ because both will be so uncomfortable with it.

Split the difference. In most negotiations it is the three-word formula most likely to be adduced, obliging both sides to […]

Post-Brexit immigration policy: Scotland wants to go its own way

Britain does not yet have a post-Brexit immigration policy, and a likely shortage of lower-skilled workers poses a particular challenge. Sarah Kyambi (University of  Edinburgh) looks at how governments try to meet labour shortages and why Scotland is exploring ways to encourage migrants to settle permanently.

Despite the likelihood that free movement will end when the UK leaves the European […]

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    Brexit is still a hot topic on Twitter, but public sentiments remain largely unchanged

Brexit is still a hot topic on Twitter, but public sentiments remain largely unchanged

The Brexit debate is intense and continues to dominate the UK policy agenda. It concerns the entire population. Josh De Lyon, Elsa Leromain and Maria Molina-Domene (LSE) use Twitter data to characterise the online discussion. The data shows that politics is the core topic for Twitter users who post about Brexit. Interestingly, the overall sentiment around Brexit appears to […]

Latin America is a natural fit for Britain’s post-Brexit trade

Visiting South America, Boris Johnson has spoken of his optimism about a post-Brexit trade deal and co-operation with the region. Thomas Mills (Lancaster University) argues that the UK now has an important opportunity to realise its ‘Global Britain’ ambitions by building closer links with Latin America.

Boris Johnson’s recent tour of South America elicited rare media interest in Britain’s relations with Latin America. Speaking ahead of his […]

“Read my lips”: no Brexit dividend

After all the debunking it has had, including the admission from prominent ‘leave’ supporters that it was phoney, the continuing hold on British public debate of the claim of £350 million per week for the NHS is an abiding mystery. In this blog, Iain Begg (LSE) explains that there is no such thing as a Brexit dividend.

Few doubt the need for increased […]

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    Mission impossible: calculating the economic costs of Brexit

Mission impossible: calculating the economic costs of Brexit

Much of the 2016 referendum debate focused on the costs involved in a potential Brexit. The ‘fatalists’ claimed that the losses would be huge and felt immediately after the UK had taken the decision to leave the EU. As time progressed, a more ‘moderate’ view prevailed postulating that the costs would not be instantly perceptible, but would crystallise only over […]

Keeping zero tariffs is good economics, but the EU’s political interest matters too

Tariffs are a key element in any trade deal negotiated between the EU and the UK. Ozlem Taytas Ozturk (LSE) explains why and writes that while a zero tariff arrangement is in the economic interests of all the business sectors involved, the final deal may be swayed by politics. The EU may impose some tariffs in order to discourage […]

Clean break? Why the Sanitary and Phytosanitary framework matters

After Brexit, Britain wants to be able to diverge from the EU’s Sanitary and Phytosanitary frameworks so as to negotiate new trade deals. But to sell into the Single Market, the UK will have to continue to meet EU standards. Nazlı Gül Uysal (LSE) examines how the government has tackled this conundrum.

Trade in agri-food between the UK and the EU is a […]

Outside the Single Market, what kind of deal can Britain’s services sector hope for?

Professional and business services account for more than a tenth of the UK economy. Leaving the single market means it will no longer enjoy the passporting rights that give the financial sector smooth access to EU markets. John Catalfamo and Laura Arts (LSE) look at the limited options available to Theresa May as she tries to reconcile Brexiters’ demands for regulatory autonomy with […]