Economics of Brexit

The Common Agricultural Policy is dead: long live the BAP

We have had 45 years of the Common Agricultural Policy. What will the BAP (British Agricultural Policy) look like? Richard Byrne (Harper Adams University) looks at how the CAP outgrew its original purpose of ensuring food security to become a wider land management programme. In fact, it was the UK’s 1986 Agricultural Act that led the way in agri-environmental […]

Sub-national government can only watch and wait as Brexit grows nearer

Brexit negotiations are conducted in London and Brussels. With so much uncertainty about the final shape of any Brexit deal, and no clear immigration policy yet, local and sub-national government is finding it very hard to plan, writes Tony Travers (LSE). The trade deals the government hopes to do will affect regions in different ways – but none can […]

Why won’t the UK get a good Brexit deal on financial services? One word: Norway

When it comes to financial services, the UK will not be able to negotiate better access than Norway currently enjoys, writes Morten Kinander (Norwegian Business School). It is simply not in the EU’s interest to create a parallel equivalence regime for Britain. That is why the ‘Norway’ (EEA) model should not be ruled out. Claims that it would turn […]

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    How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?

How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?

In this blog, Josh De Lyon (LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance) discusses some of the concerns with the economic forecasts of the effects of Brexit and suggests that the available reports are informative of the likely consequences of Brexit. He also provides an insight into how such research should be interpreted, beyond the headline-grabbing figures reported in the news.

On 29 January, a new government […]

What a CETA (or CETA+) free trade agreement would mean

The UK seems to be aiming for a CETA or CETA+-type free trade agreement with the EU. Steve Woolcock (LSE) takes a detailed look at the European Commission’s negotiating position and explains some of its implications for trade. Significantly, the inclusion of ‘most favoured nation’ clauses effectively limits the UK’s scope to negotiate deals with other countries, and means the EU is […]

How the economics profession got it wrong on Brexit

Some of the most widely cited predictions of the economic effects of Brexit rely on flawed analysis, particularly of the performance of the UK after it joined the EEC, and on the link between trade and productivity, write Ken Coutts (left), Graham Gudgin (University of Cambridge) and Jordan Buchanan (right) (Ulster University Economic Policy Centre). In order to restore public confidence […]

The EU legal system is not a thing you can leave

The rules of free trade are undeniably complex, and are the product of many decades of agreements negotiated by numerous bodies. That is why extricating the UK from the EU is so very difficult, writes Philip Allott (University of Cambridge). He sets out why the ‘Norway option’ holds little appeal. 

The level of ignorance that surrounds the effort to withdraw the UK […]

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    Many multinationals may pull out of the UK if it leaves the Customs Union

Many multinationals may pull out of the UK if it leaves the Customs Union

As March 2019 draws closer, the UK government remains divided over the type of trade relationship it wants to achieve in the ongoing negotiations with the EU. Paola Conconi (ULB/LSE) explains why Japanese multinationals may pull out of the UK in case of a hard Brexit, one which would mean there is no kind of customs union with the EU.

Some […]

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    Brexit threatens the City’s future in European payment systems

Brexit threatens the City’s future in European payment systems

Future UK-EU relations are about to be negotiated in Brussels. While there are signs of improvement in many important policy areas such as citizens’ rights, the financial settlement, and the impact of Brexit on the island of Ireland, little progress has been made on the role of the City as the location of Europe’s major clearing house, which is represented by […]

Why distance matters in trade

Despite the notion of hyper-globalisation, most trade happens with countries in close geographic proximity. A tendency towards regionalisation and the UK’s strong dependence on EU imports seem to have been forgotten in the Brexit debate, argues Patrick Kaczmarczyk (University of Sheffield).

A persistent feature of the Brexit debate is the conviction among Brexiteers that the UK will be able to offset any […]