Economics of Brexit

A mountain to climb: the looming problem of the Northern Irish border

For all practical purposes, writes Filippo Biondi, the border between Eire and Northern Ireland has disappeared. Thirty thousand people cross the 500km line each day just in order to go to work. So what will happen when it becomes the land border between the EU and the UK? He analyses the Democratic Unionist Party’s priorities and looks at possible […]

Unpicking ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’: not just meaningless, but unhelpful

In the last of a series of posts on the Government’s ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ stance, Michael Johnson points to the advantages of a preferential deal with the EU. The ‘no deal’ mantra is meaningless, and serves only to obscure both the practical imperatives and the real possibilities of Brexit negotiations.

It isn’t just trade….
The consequences […]

Unpicking the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ mantra: what does ‘no deal’ look like?

“No deal is better than a bad deal,” says Theresa May. But what is actually meant by “no deal”? In the second of three posts about the ramifications of the Government’s position, Michael Johnson looks at what it would mean for trade.

As regards future UK/EU27 trade relations, the common assumption is that if no form of preferential agreement (such […]

Unpicking the “No deal is better than a bad deal” mantra: what would a ‘bad deal’ look like?

Brexit supporters – including Government ministers – regularly claim that when it comes to UK withdrawal from the European Union and future bilateral relations, “no deal is better than a bad deal”.  This mantra is based on confused thinking, writes Michael Johnson, in the first of three posts.  The issues that will arise respectively if the UK successfully negotiates […]

Investment banks are already leaving London. Other jobs will follow

The Brexit exodus is already happening. Investment banks have announced plans to relocate jobs from London to Frankfurt and Dublin, and Warsaw is also likely to benefit. With 8% of the UK’s GDP coming from banking and finance, warns Simeon Djankov, the knock-on effects on other sectors – retail, education, entertainment and transport – will be considerable.

In May 2017, new […]

Brexit has already started to make UK citizens poorer

Leaving the European Union with no deal in place for future trading arrangements would be the worst-case Brexit scenario for the UK economy. What’s more, just because GDP growth has not declined since last year’s referendum, it would be wrong to think that Brexit is yet to have any economic effects: it has already lowered UK living standards by […]

EU migrants: going home with skills, acumen and higher expectations

Growing numbers of Central-Eastern Europeans are leaving the UK, while new arrivals are falling. This is what Leavers wanted – but it is a boon to the rest of the EU and a loss to the UK, writes Simeon Djankov. The returnees are bringing home skills, business acumen and – most importantly – experience of a society without systemic corruption.

The UK is […]

Economic consequences of limiting migration are shocking

This blog outlines the economic consequences of limiting migration as proposed in the Conservative Manifesto. What it shows is the extent to which the UK economy has become dependent on migrant labour for growth and for tax revenues and the potential adjustment cost if the economy has to be weaned off migrant labour. If this does happen, both the […]

Britain’s farmers get £3bn a year from the inefficient CAP. That has to change

The Common Agricultural Policy is inefficient, and much of British food production is uncompetitive in the absence of tariffs. And free trade deals of the kind the UK plans to pursue outside the Single Market will hurt farmers even more than the loss of subsidies. Dieter Helm says Brexit is a chance to stop subsidising large landowners and spend […]

The interregnum: 11 years without free movement from 1962 to 1973

There was a short period of just 11 years between 1962 and 1973 when free movement of people did not apply in the UK. Other than during that time, businesses and public services have had easy access to workers from other countries, writes Colin Yeo. Following Brexit, the UK will be embarking on a similar period. If the full […]