Thomas Sampson

Four principles for the UK’s Brexit trade negotiations

Drill sergeant, by Defence Images, under a CC-BY-SA-2.0 licence
An independent trade policy presents both challenges and opportunities. The most important challenge would be to reach a new trade agreement with the European Union (EU). The UK has yet to decide what relationship with the EU it wants following Brexit. But whatever it chooses, the government’s ability to achieve its goals will […]

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    What kind of relationship with the EU is best for the UK economy post-Brexit?

What kind of relationship with the EU is best for the UK economy post-Brexit?

The UK has voted to leave the EU, but not in favour of any specific alternative to EU membership. This poses a challenge for UK policy makers and the new Prime Minister Theresa May. What should the UK’s relations with the EU be, following Brexit?

It is naïve to expect economic considerations will be the only factor that determines what […]

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    Foreign investors love Britain – but Brexit would end the affair

Foreign investors love Britain – but Brexit would end the affair

Foreign direct investment (FDI) comprises investments from outside a country to set up new establishments, expand existing ones or purchase local companies. According to government body UK Trade & Investment, the UK has an estimated stock of over £1 trillion of FDI, and only the United States and China have more. About half of this stock of FDI is […]

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    Less trade and lower living standards in the UK: the price of Brexit

Less trade and lower living standards in the UK: the price of Brexit

There are many issues that will weigh in the minds of UK voters in the run-up to the referendum on membership of the European Union (EU) on 23 June. Many people feel that they are oppressed by a remote, undemocratic super-state that can over-rule UK laws. Others believe that the EU promotes better co-operation between communities that were at […]

The distributional effects of Brexit: Who bears the pain?

In recent days, pro-Brexiteers have been saying that leaving the EU may hurt the rich but it will help the poor. Although there is now a strong consensus that leaving the EU would damage the overall economy (HM Treasury, 2016; IFS, 2016; OECD, 2016; NIESR, 2016, The Guardian 28 May 2016)  there has been almost no breakdown of what […]

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    How do ‘Economists for Brexit’ manage to defy the laws of gravity?

How do ‘Economists for Brexit’ manage to defy the laws of gravity?

The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has generated an unusual degree of consensus among economists. Acrimony and rancour surrounded debates around austerity and joining the euro, but analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia has all concluded that Brexit would make us economically worse off. The disagreement is mainly over the […]

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    How Brexit will reduce foreign investment in the UK….and why it matters

How Brexit will reduce foreign investment in the UK….and why it matters

Foreign investors love Britain…

Foreign direct investment (FDI) comprises investments from outside a country to set up new establishments, expand existing establishments or purchase local companies.

According to UK Trade and Investment (UKTI, 2015), the UK has an estimated stock of over £1 trillion of FDI, about half of which is from the European Union (EU). Only the United States and […]

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    The question is not ‘if’ but ‘how much’ Brexit would cost the UK

The question is not ‘if’ but ‘how much’ Brexit would cost the UK

There are many issues that will weigh in the minds of voters in the run up to the 23rd June EU referendum. Many people feel that they are oppressed by a remote, undemocratic super-state that can over-rule British laws. Others believe that the EU promotes better co-operation between communities that were at war for centuries. These views often stem from deeply […]

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    If the UK leaves the EU, any path it chooses would carry economic costs

If the UK leaves the EU, any path it chooses would carry economic costs

To make an informed decision on the merits of leaving the European Union (EU), UK voters need to know more about what the government would do following Brexit. Just as the parties put forward policy manifestos in the run-up to an election, they should publish their plans for a post-Brexit world before the referendum.

The report notes that it is highly uncertain what the […]