Trade & Globalisation

Brexit is already affecting the British economy

Following the recent Brexit vote, it appears that neither David Cameron nor Tory contenders for the top job like Theresa May are willing to trigger the notorious Article 50 ‘before the end of the year‘. This is ironic because we were repeatedly told by Brexiters that we need to ‘take back control’ of our country as soon as possible. […]

Post Brexit vote, a fresh look at globalisation

There were a lot of dramatic headlines over the weekend suggesting that Brexit signals the beginning of the end of globalization. Surely, it is too soon to understand all the ramifications of the British referendum. But at the same time, today is surely a good day to make the case for multilateralism. While there are plenty of reasons to […]

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    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects

Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects

The economic consequences of leaving the EU have naturally been a central focus of the referendum campaign. As June 23 draws near we bring together the conclusions from our research on the likely consequences, and reflect on some of the claims made.

First and foremost a vote to leave the EU would almost certainly make us financially worse off compared […]

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    Foreign investors love Britain – but Brexit would end the affair

Foreign investors love Britain – but Brexit would end the affair

Foreign direct investment (FDI) comprises investments from outside a country to set up new establishments, expand existing ones or purchase local companies. According to government body UK Trade & Investment, the UK has an estimated stock of over £1 trillion of FDI, and only the United States and China have more. About half of this stock of FDI is […]

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    Brexit could bring a potential catastrophe for the UK financial sector

Brexit could bring a potential catastrophe for the UK financial sector

The June 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) survey of experts asked for views on the impact of the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union for the country’s financial sector. Almost all panel members thought that a vote for Brexit would lead to a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices for several months, which would put […]

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    Less trade and lower living standards in the UK: the price of Brexit

Less trade and lower living standards in the UK: the price of Brexit

There are many issues that will weigh in the minds of UK voters in the run-up to the referendum on membership of the European Union (EU) on 23 June. Many people feel that they are oppressed by a remote, undemocratic super-state that can over-rule UK laws. Others believe that the EU promotes better co-operation between communities that were at […]

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    “A stark choice on 23 June will determine our fate for generations to come”

“A stark choice on 23 June will determine our fate for generations to come”

Even those campaigning to leave the European Union (EU) concede that there will be negative economic consequences in the next few years following a vote for Brexit. CEP researchers have been analysing the long- term effects of Brexit and we conclude that they will be even worse than the short-term damage.

Our best estimate is that GDP per capita will […]

The distributional effects of Brexit: Who bears the pain?

In recent days, pro-Brexiteers have been saying that leaving the EU may hurt the rich but it will help the poor. Although there is now a strong consensus that leaving the EU would damage the overall economy (HM Treasury, 2016; IFS, 2016; OECD, 2016; NIESR, 2016, The Guardian 28 May 2016)  there has been almost no breakdown of what […]

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    Don’t blame the EU for the troubles of the fishing industry in the UK

Don’t blame the EU for the troubles of the fishing industry in the UK

It is indisputable that many ports and coastal communities around the UK have lost many of the boats and fishers that contributed so much to their coastal character. So where did all the fishers go? And what is the right policy response?

Any analysis of UK fisheries needs to begin with a history of overfishing because its legacy, and our […]

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    How do ‘Economists for Brexit’ manage to defy the laws of gravity?

How do ‘Economists for Brexit’ manage to defy the laws of gravity?

The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has generated an unusual degree of consensus among economists. Acrimony and rancour surrounded debates around austerity and joining the euro, but analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia has all concluded that Brexit would make us economically worse off. The disagreement is mainly over the […]

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    India needs to sophisticate and diversify its manufacturing exports

India needs to sophisticate and diversify its manufacturing exports

The expansion of India’s exports of services between 1990 and 2013 has been nothing short of spectacular, putting India on a par with the world’s high-income economies in terms of service-product sophistication and as a share of total exports. This has created unique opportunities for continued growth. By contrast, when it comes to exports of manufactured goods, India has […]

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

Many British people are concerned that high levels of immigration have hurt their jobs, wages and quality of life. This anxiety is understandable as workers have had a rough ride in recent times. Allowing for inflation, average wages fell by 8 to 10 percent in the six years after the global financial crisis of 2008. Such a sustained fall […]

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    Paul Krugman’s criticism of the eurozone can apply to the US

Paul Krugman’s criticism of the eurozone can apply to the US

Mention the euro and even one of the brightest and most original US economists reverts to pop economics.  Paul Krugman’s keynote at a conference of Europeanists in Philadelphia on 15 April 2016 could not have been more packed with the received wisdom on optimum currency areas. It is supposedly a well-developed piece of economic theory, or so the audience […]

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    How Brexit will reduce foreign investment in the UK….and why it matters

How Brexit will reduce foreign investment in the UK….and why it matters

Foreign investors love Britain…

Foreign direct investment (FDI) comprises investments from outside a country to set up new establishments, expand existing establishments or purchase local companies.

According to UK Trade and Investment (UKTI, 2015), the UK has an estimated stock of over £1 trillion of FDI, about half of which is from the European Union (EU). Only the United States and […]

Britain needs the EU much more than vice versa

Britain earns 13 per cent of its GDP by exporting goods and services to the other EU members. In turn, these other EU members earn less than 4 per cent of their GDP by sending goods and services across the Channel. Britain accounts for a mere 17 per cent of the joint GDP of the EU.

As a result of […]

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    The question is not ‘if’ but ‘how much’ Brexit would cost the UK

The question is not ‘if’ but ‘how much’ Brexit would cost the UK

There are many issues that will weigh in the minds of voters in the run up to the 23rd June EU referendum. Many people feel that they are oppressed by a remote, undemocratic super-state that can over-rule British laws. Others believe that the EU promotes better co-operation between communities that were at war for centuries. These views often stem from deeply […]

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    The value of intermediaries in the global market for cloud workers

The value of intermediaries in the global market for cloud workers

A variety of online markets have developed in recent years to facilitate trade in labour services. Upwork – previously known as oDesk-eLance (oDesk was founded in 2005 and merged with eLance in 2014) – is the largest global online market for outsourced work, with revenues of around $1 billion a year, making it the ‘behemoth of the human cloud’ […]

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    As a leading global city, London needs to meet its challenges

As a leading global city, London needs to meet its challenges

Recently the Economist wrote a piece exploring the rise of London. It was interesting for its comparison with New York, both in terms of the proportion of the population who reside there, and the proportion of the economic activity that takes place there. The general thesis was that whilst London was undoubtedly huge, when compared with New York, it should quite […]

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    If the UK leaves the EU, any path it chooses would carry economic costs

If the UK leaves the EU, any path it chooses would carry economic costs

To make an informed decision on the merits of leaving the European Union (EU), UK voters need to know more about what the government would do following Brexit. Just as the parties put forward policy manifestos in the run-up to an election, they should publish their plans for a post-Brexit world before the referendum.

The report notes that it is highly uncertain what the […]

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    Countries with tight social norms innovate less in the international arena

Countries with tight social norms innovate less in the international arena

An increasingly common way to source creative ideas is to ask the crowd for help. Various companies have launched online platforms to source creative ideas from online communities. For example, PepsiCo has set up “Legion of the Bold”, a community website in which the brand asks fans for marketing and advertising ideas. In 2014, Procter & Gamble announced the […]