David Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership in 2017. Costas Milas argues that talk of an exit from the EU has been a hugely unnecessary distraction that has led to economic uncertainty and higher borrowing costs. He shows this by plotting the 10-year UK yield together with the Google trends search queries index for “Brexit”. Policymakers […]
Falling support for the European Parliament, not the economic crisis, has led to a decline in support for the EU in Spain and Portugal.
In April, a major Eurobarometer study reported that there had been a decline in support for the European Union across Europe, especially in countries where the Eurozone crisis’ effects had been most severe. Mariano Torcal takes a closer look at the reasons behind falling support for the EU in Spain and Portugal. Using panel data, he finds that a significant […]
John Van Reenen reacts to the news this week that the UK has avoided economic contraction in the last quarter. Whilst Osborne may see this as cause to celebrate, there is nothing commendable about an economy that continues to stagnate. This news should not be taken as a sign to continue down the path of austerity. Rather, a policy change, starting […]
John Van Reenen analyses the economic legacy of Margaret Thatcher. In the late 1970s, when the UK was behind other developed nations in terms of material wellbeing, her supply side policies spurred economic revival. There is a substantial body of evidence suggesting that a range of important policy changes initiated by her underpinned these economic gains. Nevertheless, there are many important economic and […]
The uncertainty created by David Cameron’s policy on EU membership may cost the UK’s already troubled economy.
Prior to UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s speech on the country’s relationship with the EU, Michael Emerson set out several hazards that his strategy was expected to face. Revisiting these hazards after the speech, he finds them to be mostly confirmed. He argues that Cameron’s policy is badly defined, politically unmanageable, creates uncertainty for investment, and implies a difficult and clouded […]
Despite rising unemployment and a lack of economic growth, Greece cannot afford to ignore the challenge of controlling inflation.
Since the beginning of the eurozone crisis, Greece has experienced a sharp fall in GDP and a large increase in unemployment. Nicholas Apergis argues that another policy challenge facing Greece is also highly significant: controlling inflation. Assessing the inflation dynamics within the country between 1981 and 2009, he outlines three dynamics important to understanding Greek inflation: inflation persistence, inflation spillovers […]