Jun 18 2013

July 2nd: Evidence & Power Conference at LSE

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LSECan evidence really drive development policy, or do power and politics always trump in the end?  Join experts from the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), The Asia Foundation (TAF), ActionAid, the London School of Economics (LSE), Tufts University, Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and the University of Manchester for a day of debate, discussion and workshops on the evolving and contested role of evidence in development policy.

This one-day conference is structured as a solution-oriented conversation between researchers, practitioners and policymakers working at the intersection of evidence and policy.  We’ll discuss examples from the ongoing research collaboration between the LSE’s Justice and Security Research Programme and The Asia Foundation, examining how TAF uses Theory of Change as a planning tool and entry point for better use of evidence in their work in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Philippines,  Timor-Leste and beyond.

The one-day conference will take place on Tuesday, 2 July 2013 from 10:00 to 17:30, in the London School of Economics’ Hong Kong Theatre (Clement House).

Admission is free and open to all but advance registration is required.

Confirmed participants include Alex de Waal (World Peace Foundation and JSRP Research Director), Chris Whitty (Director, Research and Evidence Division, DFID), Tom Parks (Regional Director, Conflict and Governance, The Asia Foundation), Zaira Drammis (International Head of Evaluation and Accountability, ActionAid), Rachel Slater (Research Director, Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium, ODI), David Hulme (Consortium Director, Effective States and Inclusive Development, University of Manchester),  and many more.

Join fellow researchers, practitioners and policymakers for a day of discussion and learning on how cross-disciplinary teams can collaborate to foster a stronger evidence base for future policy and programming.  The full conference programme is available here. Date and location details are below:

Evidence and Power in Development Policy

The Justice and Security Research Programme and The Asia Foundation
Tuesday, 2 July 2013 from 10:00 to 17:30 (BST)
London School of Economics
Hong Kong Theatre, Clement House
WC2A 2AE London
United Kingdom
Free registration for the conference available here.

Questions about the event?  Contact us via intdev.jsrp [at] lse.ac.uk.

Twitter Accounts of Participating Organisations

Justice and Security Research Programme: @jsrp2
The Asia Foundation  @Asia_Foundation
UK Department for International Development (DFID) @DFID_UK
ActionAid: @ActionAidUK
World Peace Foundation: @WorldPeaceFdtn
The Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium: @SLRCtweet

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Jun 13 2013

The NGO-fication of Goma

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The Streets of Goma

The Streets of Goma. Credit: Laura, Flickr.

How does the arrival of nearly 100 humanitarian and development organizations’ logistics headquarters and staff change a developing world capital? In the case of the D.R. Congo’s Goma, the answer is: a lot. And not only in good ways.

In their March article in OpenDemocracy, The humanitarian industry and urban change in Goma, JSRP Senior Researcher Koen Vlassenroot and Dr Karen Büscher argue that the NGO-ificaiton of Goma has transformed the city’s economic and employment landscapes while significantly “re-ordering” its urban spaces.

Vlassenroot and Büscher document a range of effects of the agencies’ arrival nearly 20 years ago, from stimulating the local economy, to the creation of informal “networks of patronage” to serve the agencies, and a real estate boom including new supermarkets, clubs, restaurants and hotels targeted at international clientele.

Goma’s new economies and industries, driven by the humanitarian sector, have literally shaped the city’s economic and social layout. Today, Goma’s central districts are increasingly gentrified and unaffordable to the non-NGO community. New, informal districts in the urban periphery are being created as a result, but they are mostly deprived of essential infrastructure like water and sanitation.

Büscher and Vlassenroot argue that the unintended consequences of the agencies’ presence in Goma may counter their best intentions for the country:

Humanitarian actors’ presence in Goma contributes considerably to the increasing marginalisation and exclusion of the urban periphery, and to the confirmation of a ‘ville duale’ , where, as many perceive, old colonial structures of inequality and social and spatial segregation are being reconfirmed.

Most humanitarian agencies, however, are reticent to see themselves as powerful economic players in their working environments, preferring to focus narrowly on the intended effects of their programs.

The uncomfortable duality is echoed in former aid worker Nora Schenkel’s blunt evaluation of her humanitarian work in Haiti, published in last month’s New York Times:

I understood why people asked me for money, a job, for things. Most Haitians only ever meet Westerners in our capacity as self-appointed helpers. We are never just here because we want to be in Haiti; we claim we are here to better Haitians’ lives.

Meanwhile, they see us leaving the grocery store with bags of food that cost more than what they make in a month. They watch us get into large air-conditioned cars and drive by them, always by them. They see us going home to nice, big houses, shielded by high walls.

And here is what they don’t know: These houses? We could never afford them back home. These houses we have because they don’t. We have a job because they are poor.

In both Goma and abroad, Vlassenroot and Büscher conclude, the humanitarian sector, “seldom pays attention to these issues … thus seriously underestimating their indirect impact.”

The article, available on OpenDemocracy here, is based on material drawn from Büscher, Karen & Vlassenroot, Koen (2010) “Humanitarian presence and urban development: new opportunities and contrasts in Goma, DRC” in: Disasters 34(S2): 256-273.

* * *

Koen Vlassenroot is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Conflict Research Group. He is the JSRP lead researcher for the DRC and for the Central African Republic. His research interests include rebel governance, land issues and the militarization of society in conflict zones. He is also affiliated to the Egmont Institute.

Dr Karen Büscher is a post-doctoral researcher and lecturer at the Conflict Research Group (Ghent University) studying dynamics of conflict-urbanism in Eastern D.R. Congo

Posted by: Posted on by Katie McKenna

May 28 2013

Reflections on Theories of Change in International Development

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Danielle Stein and Craig Valters have recently published Theories in Practice papers on Community Mediation and Social Harmony in Nepal and Sri Lanka. Here they raise some ongoing questions facing those engaging with Theories of Change.

Rubiks cube by keqsIncreasingly, international development NGOs are creating ‘Theories of Change’ to explain how and why their interventions work. Theories of Change commonly take the form of a written document, although the concept can also be part of a reflective approach to development thinking (discussed in our paper here, and in various other places such as here). It has become common for donors to require written Theories of Change as part of monitoring and evaluation, although some organisations use the concept voluntarily. However it is used, Theory of Change is commonly understood as a way to draw out implicit and explicit ‘assumptions’ about change processes. Doing so, it is often argued, signals an increased desire for organisations to plan, describe, explore, monitor and evaluate change in a way that reflects the complexities of development contexts.

Theory of Change has been criticised as simply another development fuzzword and a logframe on steroids. Based on a previous literature review on Theory of Change and research conducted in Nepal and Sri Lanka with the Asia Foundation, we pose some overlapping questions on their use in international development. Continue reading

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May 6 2013

“HIV/ AIDS is Another War” review: “Deeply engaging and fearless.”

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Dr. Hakan Seckinelgin’s new book, International Security, Conflict and Gender: ‘HIV is another war’ has received a rave review in the Global Policy Journal (GPJ).

First published in 2012 and now available in digital formatInternational Security, Conflict and Gender “challenges the conventional security-based international policy frameworks that have developed for dealing with HIV/AIDS during and after conflicts, and examines first-hand evidence and experiences of conflict and HIV/AIDS.”  Drawing on Dr. Seckinelgin’s research in post-conflict Burundi, the book is “a much needed re-conceptualisation of the links between conflict, gendered relations and HIV”, according to the GPJ.

Reviewer Rochelle Burgess calls International Security, Conflict and Gender a “must read for social policy actors” and “an immaculate and welcome contribution” to debates on how and whether local context-specific knowledge should fit into global HIV/AIDS policy formation.

This insistent focus on including the perspectives and experiences of the “end-users” of development and health policies is also a defining focus of the LSE’s DFID-funded Justice and Security Research Programme, where Dr. Seckinelgin is a Senior Researcher and Gender Advisor.

The full review is available here.

 

Posted by: Posted on by Katie McKenna Tagged with: , ,

Apr 8 2013

Advocacy in conflict: “half-truths” on behalf of the powerful?

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Does contemporary western activism speak truth to power — or half-truths on behalf of the powerful?  These questions were the subject of a recent seminar on Advocacy in Conflict hosted by the World Peace Foundation (WP) at Tufts University.

The WP seminar eschewed the traditional conference format of presentations followed by Q&A in favour of frank discussions among a small number of expert participants, “with the goal of generating new avenues of insight and query.” Among the two days of proceedings, JSRP Research Director and WP Executive Director Alex de Waal moderated a panel with Rony Brauman, Director of Research at Doctors without Borders; Laura Seay, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Morehouse College and blogger at Texas in Africa; and Amanda Taub, Adjunct Professor of International Law and Human Rights at Fordham University and blogger at Wronging Rights.

“We didn’t mince words” says WP Research Director Bridget Conley-Zilkic of the seminar’s briefing summary, available in full on the Reinventing Peace blog.  With activism case studies of Burma, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gaza and Uganda, Advocacy in Conflict explored how campaigns portray complex situations, their impact on conflict and foreign policy, and the ethical questions of their legitimacy and accountability.  Excerpts from the seminar’s briefing summary are below.

On the difference between charity and political activism:

… while charity is a depoliticizing activity, stripping political agency away from its beneficiaries, political activism should be an exercise in the political empowerment of subjects.

On the illusory successes of western policy change:

A theme that recurred throughout the seminar was the distinction between two kinds of activism: one, principled solidarity with the people affected, pursuing solutions that they themselves define; and two, advocacy for a U.S. (or other western nation) policy response, that frequently defines success in terms of adopting a policy, rather than resolving the situation in the country concerned.

[…] Led by groups such as the Enough Project, “activism” has been redesigned as an entirely domestic endeavor: changing policies in western capitals by mobilizing constituencies around celebrities and publicity. Success is measured by the extent to which advocates can convince a domestic population that simple actions they can take will produce fundamental change in distant conflict-ridden places.

… activists must be careful not to equate obtaining a tool (a legal measure such as a convention) with success in solving the problem (which requires a deeper shift in morality and behavior, and more resources).

On who gets “empowered” by media and celebrity-driven activism:

Through highly-produced multimedia products, celebrity spokespersons, and simplified narratives, a new set of practices is developing. Invariably, the answers these campaigns propose are framed as apolitical: clothed in ethical absolutes, impervious to critique, and challenging to the activist’s own government only to the extent that it is called upon to do more. The message is one of empowerment—but the empowerment of a domestic constituency, consisting of people not affected by conflict.

[…] Activism defined as solidarity with demands articulated by a conflict-affected population is an honorable commitment. But another term is needed to describe publicity-based awareness campaigns to give American youth a transient and likely illusory sense of empowerment.

On “rescue narratives” vs local experience:

… international NGOs along with western policymakers and the media, have established a dominant human rights framework with an attendant narrative of rescue from evil that has become internalized among many local actors as well. This is particularly the case where those local actors are relatively powerless and lack self-confidence, so they may cling to foreign explanations of their plight, setting aside their own deeper understandings. Local actors’ expectations and demands may follow accordingly.

[…] The greater the distance between the activist and the concerned community, and the greater the discrepancy in power and profile between the two, the more important it is for the activist to ensure that he or she is truly supportive of the agenda of the concerned people and accountable to them.

The entire Advocacy in Conflict briefing summary is available here.  Kate Cronin-Furman of Wronging Rights also wrote about the seminar, with a focus on “evidence and conflict”, here.

Posted by: Posted on by Katie McKenna Tagged with: , , , , ,

Mar 22 2013

UPDATED: Africa in the 2011 Libyan conflict: the inside story

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Libya

Photo: Henry Patton

 “[Intervention] is a high and summary procedure which may sometimes snatch a remedy beyond the reach of law. Nevertheless, it must be admitted that in the case of Intervention, as in that of Revolution, its essence is illegality and its justification is its success.’

- Sir William Harcourt, 1862.
From: African roles in the Libyan conflict of 2011.

JSRP Research Director Alex de Waal’s new article in International Affairs provides an insider’s revealing take on the previously unreported role that African governments and the African Union (AU) played in the Libyan Conflict of 2011.

African roles in the Libyan conflict of 2011 draws on extensive interviews with the AU officials involved in the crisis, offering behind-the-scenes revelations of conflict, deception and dubious alliances in AU members’ negotiations with Gaddafi and the U.S.-led coalition.

 

Divisions within the African Union

Contrary to media depictions of a uniform and “cosy relationship between [Gaddafi] and African leaders”, de Waal describes African governments as divided in their response to the crisis:

While most of the continent wanted Gaddafi gone with minimal disruption, a few leaders were sympathetic to the ‘Brother Leader’. Chad and Niger, fearful of spillover, leaned towards Gaddafi. Algeria took a strict non-interventionist position. Some other African leaders were so antipathetic to Gaddafi that they would have no truck with compromise.

President Jacob Zuma attends African Union meeting on Libya, 26 Jun 2011

AU Ad-hoc High Level Committee meeting on Libya in June 2011. Photo: Government of South Africa.

Despite their divisions,

… the African Union (AU) was able to agree on a political strategy aimed at achieving a negotiated settlement and power transition […] contrary to widespread perception that the AU sought to prop up Gaddafi, it offered a credible and balanced option of a negotiated solution.

The AU’s proposal, de Waal argues, was never considered seriously by the coalition led by France, Britain and the United States. While the African Union’s provisions were included and acknowledged in UN Security Council Resolution 1973, they were selectively omitted upon the Resolution’s implementation by the coalition, who favoured military action over the AU provisions for negotiation and humanitarian aid:

… the intervention stretched the bounds of legality, misleading the African states that voted in favour of Resolution 1973 into believing that their concerns to bring about a ceasefire, humanitarian access and a negotiated settlement would be taken seriously.

 

Sudan: champion of the Responsibility to Protect?

De Waal calls the surprising role that Sudan’s government played in Libya the “untold story [of the] Libyan conflict”:

While the AU was pursuing a negotiated settlement, one member state—Sudan— was actively involved in providing military support to the Libyan opposition, in discreet coordination with Qatar and NATO.

In public remarks praising the coalition, however, Barack Obama declined to acknowledge Sudan’s contribution. The reason?

The most outspoken proponents of US military action against Gaddafi were members of the administration who had also entertained or advocated similar action against the Sudanese government, invoking the principle of the ‘responsibility to protect’.

President Jacob Zuma attends Ordinary Summit of the African Union, 28-31 Jan 2011

South African President Jacob Zuma and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir at the Ordinary Summit of the African Union, January 2011. Photo: Gov of South Africa.

In other words, pending accusations of genocide and war crimes against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir made him an awkward standard-bearer for human rights in the region.

This alliance of convenience between the humanitarian hawks in Washington DC and Sudan’s intelligence chiefs has no small measure of irony attached to it, especially for those who applaud the Libyan intervention as an exemplar of the responsibility to protect. The Libyan campaign may indeed become an exemplar of the practice of R2P, but one that illustrates the limits of the doctrine, not its unalloyed success.

De Waal concludes:

The outcome of the Libyan conflict has left Africa damaged. The AU was not able to convince Libyans, Africans or the world that it was a credible interlocutor for peace in Libya. Africa did not present a united position, and did not provide the financial, military or diplomatic resources necessary for the AU initiative to appear a genuine alternative, let alone to prevail. This is particularly regrettable because the AU’s diagnosis of the Libyan conflict was fundamentally correct. This conflict was both a popular uprising against a dictatorship and a civil war within a patronage-based political order, with regional repercussions.

The full article is available for download here at no charge.

UPDATE: Alex de Waal answers readers’ questions about this article at the Reinventing Peace blog.

Posted by: Posted on by Katie McKenna Tagged with: , , , ,

Mar 4 2013

Africa Seminar Series: The Juba Peace Talks & implications for peacemaking

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We are the underdogs. We are the aggressed, not the aggressors. We are the victims of a political circumstance we did not create. We have been forced out of our homes. We are refugees in our own country.

- Lord’s Resistance Army Manifesto, 1996.

How is the process of peacemaking experienced first-hand by the actors involved, and can a better understanding of their experiences improve the outcomes of future peacemaking processes?

This Wednesday at the LSE, JSRP Consortium Director Dr. Mareike Schomerus will address these questions and more in a seminar titled The Juba Peace Talks with the Lord’s Resistance Army and the implications for peacemaking.

The seminar is part of the Africa Seminar Series run by the LSE’s International Development department, and takes place Wednesday March 6th from 4 – 6.30 pm, at the LSE’s Clement House (CLM) Room 1.02.

LRA leader Joseph Kony (left) and Acholi Paramount Chief Rwot David Onen Acana II met in the bush in Southern Sudan during the Peace Talks in Juba. Photo: http://www.netpublikationer.dk

Dr. Schomerus will draw on research from her PhD dissertation, which chronicles the Lord’s Resistance Army’s experience throughout the Juba Peace Talks to establish how the LRA’s experience of the talks entrenched the fault lines of negotiation and shifted the conflict into its next phase, rather than ending or transforming it.

Contemporary peacemaking, Schomerus argues, needs a radical overhaul in order to be transformative.  Peacemaking processes are as complex as the conflicts they aim to resolve, and a detailed understanding of actors’ motivations and experience during a peace process is necessary to effectively address the conflict.

The seminar takes place Wednesday March 6th from 4 – 6.30 pm, at the London School of Economics’ Clement House (CLM) Room 1.02.  The seminars are open to academics, research students, policy-makers at LSE and beyond.

About Mareike Schomerus

Dr. Mareike Schomerus is a researcher, consultant, and teacher, working on violent conflict, peace, human security and small arms.  She is the Consortium Director of the Justice and Security Research Consortium, and her research interests include the dynamics of conflict resolution, the violence of democratization, civilian security, and the impact of living in militarised situations on personal lives. She further has a particular interest in how knowledge is created, shared and shaped.

Posted by: Posted on by Katie McKenna

Mar 1 2013

Justice in Transition: rule of law, peacebuilding, victims and ex-combatants

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Professor Chandra Lekha Sriram‘s post first appeared on the Global Policy site, where a link to her recent video interview can be found.   Professor Sriram (SOAS) is co-editor of Transitional Justice and Peacebuilding on the Ground: victims and ex-combatants (Routledge 2013) and will be a discussant on 7th March at an LSE event on  ‘The Catalysing Effects of International Justice in Uganda and Sudan: unravelling the paradoxes of complementarity’.

(Cartoon: Davide Cannaviccio, CartoonMovement)peacebuilding

The subtitle of this post is a deliberate mishmash of actors, concepts and activities, reflecting the crowded and often confused landscape in which those who seek to promote peace and/or justice often operate.  I have brought these together to counteract what often appear to be stovepipe approaches to each, resulting in direct competition among one or more, mutual ignorance, or problematic subsumption of one by another.   The discussion of justice in transition is no longer the ‘justice versus peace’ debate of the immediate post-cold war era.  However, it continues to involve two streams of scholarship and practice which evolved alongside one another, but often with insufficient interaction or reflection.  Much of my work in recent years has sought to promote discussion across boundaries of disclipine and practice.

What, specifically, do I mean by boundaries and how do they affect scholars and practitioners alike?  I start with rule of law and peacebuilding.  Traditionally, rule of law promotion activities were the province of development actors, whether the United Nations Development Programme and the World Bank, bilateral actors such as the UK Department for International Development, or international non-governmental organizations.  These actors, however, initially focused largely upon the importance of rule of law in stabilizing investment environments and enabling growth, in both poor countries and post-conflict situations.  It was only with the 2004 UN Secretary General’s report on rule of law and transitional justice in conflict-affected countries that the potential role of rule of law promotion in supporting peacebuilding was recognized by a key international actor, albeit following developments in practice.  UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding missions have increasingly included significant components devoted to rule of law and human rights, as well as transitional justice.  However, it has taken some time for both scholarship and practice in peacebuilding to recognize the central role accorded to rule of law, for better or worse, in conflict-affected countries, and the ways in which law and legal institutions are expected to promote not only specific legal aims but also social and economic aims, ranging from reconciliation to accountability for mass atrocities, to promotion of economic reconstruction.

Yet law and legal institutions are perhaps both too complex, and too narrow, to fulfil all of these goals. This is all the more likely in countries with no (or a limited) history of formal, impartial legal institutions. Where the majority of the population, because of violent conflict or predatory political violence, the failure of state institutions to reach beyond urban centres, or personal or community preference, have had little or no access to formal, state-run legal institutions, external rule of law promotion may be well-meaning but fail to reach the affected populations. In such circumstances, most citizens will rely upon informal or traditional, whether state sanctioned or not, modes of justice and conflict resolution. Those engaged in rule of law promotion from outside affected countries have only relatively recently recognized the need to engage this phenomenon, and remain uncertain how, or how much, to engage “traditional” justice, given that in many contexts such processes have been inconsistent with international human rights standards and particularly known for problematic treatment of women and youths. (I put the term “traditional” in quotation marks because of the diversity of practices, their mutability, and widespread debate about precisely what the term denotes).

At the same time, the use of “traditional” mechanisms has found greater favour amongst some pursuing transitional justice and some engaged in programming or supporting the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) of ex-combatants. In some instances, in fact, there is a convergence, seldom remarked upon by practitioners or scholars, of transitional justice and DDR efforts, utilizing “traditional” mechanisms such as cleansing rituals, to return former child combatants (among others) to their former communities. This can be seen in the use of some traditional Acholi cleansing practices to promote return in northern Uganda, and some cleansing ceremonies in Sierra Leone with the same aim. However, the use of such mechanisms often either sidesteps the preferences of victims, or assumes their consent to or support for processes which may promote community reconciliation but not the needs or interests of victims. Here, my concern is not to suggest that the rights or demands of victims can or should always be paramount, but to observe that these processes, often said to be conducted on their behalf, may be designed to promote other needs and interests such as stabilization and peacebuilding.

I set aside here the myriad debates which are ongoing about the virtues of such “traditional” practices per se, whether they remain socially relevant in the wake of serious conflict, and the abovementioned human rights standards questions. Rather, I wish to query whether those who expect such traditional processes to promote the social reintegration of ex-combatants, in effect serving both DDR and transitional justice aims, are perhaps expecting rather more than the processes can handle. Indeed, at base is the question of whether, or at least how, rule of law and peacebuilding can be combined.

To be clear: I am not arguing that rule of law promotion and peacebuilding are incompatible. I believe that in many instances they might potentially be mutually reinforcing. However, it does appear that in many cases, practitioners of each continue to pursue their own goals with relatively little dialogue, even as they may increasingly rely upon overlapping tools, as with traditional justice, or indeed subsume one within the other, as arguably peacebuilding missions have subsumed rule of law promotion in many countries. What is needed is a more holistic, and dare I say interdisciplinary, approach to conflict-affected countries, which takes the wide range of actors and issues into account: rule of law and peacebuilding, victims and ex-combatants.

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Feb 22 2013

The Meaning of Traditional Justice

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Anna Macdonald is co-author with JSRP Research Director Tim Allen of ‘Post-Conflict Traditional Justice: a critical overview’.

clouds

In his brilliant essay about the historical relationship between the Bantu speaking Bunyoro-Kitara people and the Luo speaking Acholi, the Ugandan writer David Kaiza warns “if you look too much for patterns, even clouds will resemble maps and human faces”.   His gripe is with conventional scholarly classifications which tend to present things such as identity, tradition and custom as absolute.  In a new JSRP paper surveying the current literature and debates on ‘traditional justice’ as a component of post-conflict or transitional justice, we refrain from general statements about traditional justice because it is not clear that a good definition of what is being discussed is either attainable or desirable.

We argue that measures associated with social accountability vary widely within population groups as well as between them.  Other adjectives such as customary, community-based, grass-roots, indigenous and local are all sometimes used interchangeably by external observers.  To a large extent these have become catch-all designations to describe procedures in places where other kinds of justice provision cannot reach and also as an explanation for why more formal judicial mechanisms introduced into post-conflict settings seem to have such limited effects.  In recent years, ‘traditional processes’ have been explicitly linked to the promotion of more relevant and grounded transitional justice, although the desire for a ‘holistic’ approach – one that strikes a balance between meaningful customary practices and universal principles – is essentially an aspiration whose applicability and efficacy has rarely been tested.

Although they may overlap, this paper focuses mainly on the kinds of mechanisms selected to be called ‘traditional justice’ by advocates and less so on the ‘everyday’ practices of social repair (that are the subject of some very interesting articles in the November 2012 International Journal of Transitional Justice).  Aid agencies, human rights activists, and local power brokers are finding in traditional justice ways of furthering their diverse agendas. Yet, despite some grand claims, in reality we still know remarkably little about the role and impact of informal justice processes in post-conflict situations. As so often in discussions of justice, normative notions of what is inherently believed to be right, shape perceptions, rather than evidence about what has actually been occurring.  One consequence of this is a tendency to  generalise misleadingly about traditional justice as if it were some sort of cohesive and homogenised alternative to formal systems.  In our paper we comment on all of the key controversies in the extant literature and conclude, perhaps unsurprisingly, with a plea for much more rigorous, nuanced and systematic research.

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Feb 15 2013

De Waal: Why South Sudan Needs More Than Oil

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Photo: Steve Evans

Photo: Steve Evans

In a new article in Foreign Affairs, JSRP Research Director Alex de Waal argues that while the return of oil production to South Sudan is good news in the short term, the country’s longer-term prospects will depend on diversifying their resource base and making peace with their northern neighbour.

Sizzling South Sudan: Why Oil is Not the Whole Story, is part of a five-part Foreign Affairs series examining the world’s fastest-growing economies. South Sudan ranks among them, with “astonishing” 70 percent economic growth projected for this year, in part due to its rapid recovery from an economically catastrophic 2012.  That year, the shutdown of oil production over conflicts with the North forced a contraction of the country’s GDP by 55 percent, while inflation surged 60 percent.

De Waal argues that South Sudan’s return to oil production is a welcome development, but not a long-term solution for the country.  According to industry estimates, the country’s known oil reserves will last only another decade or so. But shared pipelines and distribution networks with the north mean that even short-term oil developments will depend on ongoing cooperation between the two countries.

De Waal, who served as a senior advisor to the African Union-led negotiations between North and South Sudan between 2009 and 2012, calls prospects for this kind of continued collaboration “grim”, citing ongoing conflicts in two Sudanese states near the border with the South, and disputes over the area of Abyei, which both the North and South claim.

Given these problems with South Sudan’s oil sector, de Waal writes that in the longer term, the country’s most valuable resources will not be oil, but rather agricultural land and water.  Developing the market for these requires opening the country to foreign investors, from international supporters like the U.S., to immediate neighbours, including Sudan.  To move the country forward, de Waal argues, South Sudan must

establish sound internal governance and the basis for a productive economy in the long term. The country has the advantages of some of the world’s best agricultural land, a globalized population, and a tremendous reservoir of goodwill. It also has the opportunity to bank the peace and cooperation agreements with its northern neighbor. … More than any other single factor, South Sudan’s prospects depend on its ability to build a mutually beneficial relationship with its difficult northern neighbor.

You can read the full article here (registration required).

Posted by: Posted on by Katie McKenna