The poisonous political climate around the October 2018 elections in Brazil has been brewing since Dilma Rousseff’s first term. Attacks on various institutions from both left and right, combined with massive corruption and fractious culture wars, have allowed Jair Bolsonaro and his millenarian evangelical supporters to expand his personality cult into this political vacuum, writes David Lehmann (Federal University of Bahia).
With Jair Bolsonaro certain to reach the second round of Brazil’s elections in October 2018, the real issue now is which of the other 12 candidates will join him. Mark S. Langevin (George Mason University) analyses the key factors that will shape the prospects of Bolsonaro’s main rivals: Marina Silva, Geraldo Alckmin, Ciro Gomes, and especially Lula’s hand-picked candidate Fernando Haddad.
Mexico has a long history of discretionary application of the law, as demonstrated recently by the government’s failure to prosecute corrupt state governors while they remained in office. Even from their position of political strength, Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his Morena party may find it hard to revert this trend and make good on their promise to root out corruption, writes Rodrigo Aguilera.
El programa de Iván Duque podría resultar en una mayor concentración del poder tanto político como económico. Su énfasis en las industrias extractivas no responde a desafíos claves como la baja productividad, los bajos salarios y la desigualdad extrema, escribe Tobias Franz (Universidad de los Andes).
El hecho de que ambas candidatas a la vicepresidencia sean mujeres representa un avance, pero las trayectorias y agendas disímiles de Marta Lucía Ramírez y Ángela Robledo pueden tener impactos muy distintos para el futuro de Colombia, escribe Diana Gómez (Universidad de los Andes).
Colombia’s pathbreaking presidential election of 2018 will most likely be won by Álvaro Uribe’s protege Iván Duque, which could endanger the peace process and signal a return to a dark past of violence and exclusion. But support for leftist and centrist candidates Gustavo Petro and Sergio Fajardo, as well as the unpredictable role of Germán Vargas Lleras, mean that this is far from […]
The future of the peace agreement faces many significant risks. Since implementation is a game of confidence building, and compliance and noncompliance alike create snowball effects, mitigation of these risks must be a critical priority for any incoming administration, argues Nelson Camilo Sánchez (National University of Colombia).