In the first of a short series on social science and the 2014 World Cup from the LSE Library – we focus upon forecasting the world cup outcome.
Have economists predicted an England flop?
According to a recent article in the Telegraph last week analysis of the group means that it will be difficult for them to win. Here are some sites to explore more the economic science of World Cup football forecasting!
- The Telegraph story was taken from PriceWaterhouseCooper analysis of the ‘Group of Death’ Its full World Cup Index tells you how to win the World Cup.
- The Economist Magazine has articles discussing predicting the World Cup.
- Vox.EU discusses whether Game theory works for football tournaments.
- Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta LSE has also worked on this.References to his research can be found on LSE Research online
- Mathematicians have attempted to predict World Cup winners. See this examples from 2010 from Queen Mary College which is based on an analysis of number of passes. Find out if they predicted the right winner.
- Also from 2010 Freakonomics has economic analysis of home advantages and penalty kicks in predicting sports winners.
Researching Game theory and Sport
Try these recommended databases/ websites to find academic articles and papers.
- RePEc enormous collection of on-line Economics working papers, journal articles and software
- NBER Working papers
- Econlit – references to articles and papers from the American Economic Association.
- ISI Web of Science includes the Social Science citation index and the ability to trace highly cited articles.
Finally not convinced by the Economists?
Paul the Octopus
See some animals predicting the winners. (Via Huffington Post Canada)