With results from the local elections expected tomorrow, Lewis Baston provides a preview of what to look out for, from key constituencies to the process of forming coalitions in divided councils. In particular, it may be fascinating to see what happens if the Conservatives lose control of some councils but can still govern if they form coalitions with UKIP councillors. There […]
Although the Church can be an irritant for the government, there is little appetite amongst politicians for disestablishment of an institution which is part of the fabric of the country
Recent interventions in welfare debates by churches and the new Archbishop of Canterbury have dramatically illustrated the fact that the Church of England is no longer ‘the Conservative Party at prayer’. However Wyn Grant suggests that, in spite of the tendency towards political criticism which has emerged as a consequence, there is little appetite for the complex legislative undertaking of disestablishment. On a […]
While it seemed likely on paper that the Conservatives would have reclaimed Eastleigh at the byelection, in practice it was the Liberal Democrat campaign on the doorsteps which secured their victory. Mark Garnett argues that this shows that local factors can still prevail within British politics but also points to UKIP’s success as testifying to the power of symbolism. The heavily-hyped Eastleigh […]
Conservatives at the Next Election and the Independence of the OBR: Top 5 blogs you might have missed this week
Tim Montgomerie reports on a ConservativeHome survey which finds only 7% of party members feel that Cameron can win a majority at the next election.
However Mike Smithson suggests that this loss of confidence could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Peter Hoskin argues that politicians are yet to adequately recognise the extent to which labels of ‘left’ and ‘right’ do not meaningfully apply […]
In Depth: The Conservatives will suffer electorally from the Liberal Democrats’ revenge over failure to support House of Lords reform
Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie and David Rossiter consider the background to and likely electoral consequences of the delay in implementing agreed changes to Parliamentary constituency boundaries. The Conservatives had anticipated their chances of victory in 2015 would be enhanced by the reduction of the number of MPs and the introduction of new rules for defining equal-sized constituencies. Because of a […]
The Eastleigh by-election might give us some early answers to important questions about the next election
Today’s Eastleigh by-election is widely expected to shed light on some of the most important issues which will shape the next general election. In this post Chris Prosser offers a set of predictions as to the likely outcome, made on the basis of a model he developed and applied to a dataset of previous English by-elections and changes in public opinion. The voters of Eastleigh go […]
To those of a younger generation, it may be a surprise to learn that Scotland was once ‘true-blue’ Tory territory, with widespread support in the first half of the 20th Century. Yet in the second half of that century, as well as the early years of the next, this support dramatically collapsed, with seemingly little likelihood of any revival. Whatever Happened To Tory […]