Patrick Dunleavy

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In Scotland, Wales and the London Assembly elections every voter has TWO choices this Thursday. Here’s how to use both votes well

In Scotland, Wales and the London Assembly elections every voter has TWO choices this Thursday. Here’s how to use both votes well

Voters are used to a two-vote electoral system for the Edinburgh Parliament, and the Assemblies in Cardiff and London. But how these systems operate changes a bit every time, with changing party fortunes. And this year some politicians (especially in Scotland) are advising voters to do things that may ‘waste’ one of their votes. Wherever you stand politically, Professor […]

May 4th, 2016|Featured, Party politics and elections, Patrick Dunleavy|0 Comments|

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Three more years of Cameron – but it will be a rocky road ahead

Three more years of Cameron – but it will be a rocky road ahead

Confounding the pollsters and the pundits, voters in England have given David Cameron another three years as Prime Minister, collapsed the Liberal Democrats to a shell and dashed the Labour elite’s dream of edging back into power via a minority government. Patrick Dunleavy unravels what was and was not historic in the 2015 general election results.
Expatiating on the historic resonance […]

May 8th, 2015|Featured, LSE Comment, Patrick Dunleavy|2 Comments|

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Is a British Senate any closer now? Or will the House of Lords still go on and on?

Is a British Senate any closer now? Or will the House of Lords still go on and on?

Labour enters the 2015 election pledged to make creating a British Senate a key part of a new Constitutional Convention. The SNP surge in Scotland gives much greater urgency to the idea, since a new upper House could be one of the most important components for re-binding together a fully federal UK. Richard Reid and Patrick Dunleavy read the runes on a century-old […]

May 7th, 2015|Electoral and constitutional reform, Patrick Dunleavy, Richard Reid|1 Comment|

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The UK election spells the end for the biggest ‘law’ in political science

The UK election spells the end for the biggest ‘law’ in political science

Voters are again looking beyond the traditional two-party system and look set to put paid to a famous proposition of political science, ‘Duverger’s Law’, writes Patrick Dunleavy.

Every election held under “first past the post” (FPTP) voting in the USA produces perfect two-party outcomes – no party except the Democrats and Republicans gets a look-in. Yet elections held under the same […]

April 29th, 2015|Featured, General Election 2015, Patrick Dunleavy|3 Comments|

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Political and constitutional turbulence in the UK looks set to continue to 2020

Political and constitutional turbulence in the UK looks set to continue to 2020

Scotland’s ‘No’ vote solves one acute existential threat to the UK, says Patrick Dunleavy, but only for now. The likely narrow results of the May 2015 general election, plus David Cameron’s promise of another referendum on the UK leaving the European Union in 2017, both promise massive constitutional turbulence between now and 2020. For instance, if the UK votes […]

September 19th, 2014|Featured, LSE Comment, Patrick Dunleavy, Scotland Independence Referendum|10 Comments|

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Debating Scotland’s transition costs: A response to Iain McLean’s critique

Debating Scotland’s transition costs: A response to Iain McLean’s critique

Iain McLean’s welcome comments can help us to see more clearly where some real uncertainties lie, says Patrick Dunleavy. Underneath the flim-flam of debate, the scope of debate about transition costs has focused down.

I am very grateful to Iain McLean for responding critically and perceptively to our report about the possible transition costs for Scotland in the event of […]

June 26th, 2014|Featured, Patrick Dunleavy, Scotland Independence Referendum|11 Comments|

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How costly would it be for Scotland to transition to independence?

How costly would it be for Scotland to transition to independence?

With the referendum on Scotland’s future fast approaching, Patrick Dunleavy examines how costly it would be to set up an independent Scottish state. Coinciding with an op-ed written in The Sunday Post, this article outlines the main points of a longer report which can be downloaded here.
Voters in Scotland face a momentous choice on 18 September, of what kind of state they […]

June 22nd, 2014|Featured, Patrick Dunleavy, Scotland Independence Referendum|9 Comments|

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Five minutes with Patrick Dunleavy: “The Treasury have woefully misapplied our research estimates”

Five minutes with Patrick Dunleavy: “The Treasury have woefully misapplied our research estimates”

In late May 2014, the UK Treasury released a press release ahead of a major report UK minsters were issuing on the costs of setting up an independent Scottish state. Joel Suss, Managing Editor of British Politics and Policy blog, asks Patrick Dunleavy about the way in which the Treasury used his research findings to arrive at a figure of £2.7 […]

May 28th, 2014|Featured, Interviews, Joel Suss, Patrick Dunleavy|8 Comments|