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    Does immigration harm the job prospects of the UK-born? Brexit and the UK labour market

Does immigration harm the job prospects of the UK-born? Brexit and the UK labour market

Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, the UK faces a trade-off between retaining access to the Single Market and restricting free movement of labour. Barbara Petrongolo considers the likely impact of tougher immigration controls on the wages and employment prospects of the UK-born and the current stock of immigrants.

Membership of the European Union (EU) has direct […]

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    Who voted Leave: the characteristics of individuals mattered, but so did those of local areas

Who voted Leave: the characteristics of individuals mattered, but so did those of local areas

Individual demographics had a huge effect in determining the outcome of the referendum, but the characteristics of local areas mattered as well, explain Monica Langella and Alan Manning. Immigration, the decline in manufacturing and in other sectors, as well as politics, all played an important role in deciding the outcome.

The UK’s vote to leave the EU on 23 June […]

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    Foreign investors love Britain – but Brexit would end the affair

Foreign investors love Britain – but Brexit would end the affair

Foreign investment brings many benefits to the UK, including higher pay and productivity. But a Brexit vote could end it all, write Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. First, not being in the single market will make the UK a less attractive export platform; second, multinationals have complex supply chains and costs which would be […]

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    Why leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects

Why leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects

The economic consequences of leaving the EU have been a central focus of the referendum campaign. As June 23 draws near, Jagjit Chadha, Paul Johnson and John Van Reenen bring together the conclusions from their research on the likely consequences, and reflect on some of the claims made.

First and foremost a vote to leave the EU would almost certainly […]

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    No one would be spared: how the costs of Brexit would be distributed across households

No one would be spared: how the costs of Brexit would be distributed across households

That leaving the EU would damage the overall economy is now being treated as more of a fact than a speculation. But those for Brexit argue that the rich will be negatively affected while the poor will benefit. This is not the case, write Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Middle and low income households […]

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    The ‘Britain Alone’ scenario: how Economists for Brexit defy the laws of gravity

The ‘Britain Alone’ scenario: how Economists for Brexit defy the laws of gravity

There is a degree of consensus among economists that a Brexit will make us worse off. The exception is recent work by Economists for Brexit. Their forecast of income gains from Brexit contrasts with all other economic analysis, explain Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen.

The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has […]

What is Brexit-related uncertainty doing to UK growth?

The UK will soon vote on whether to end its 43-year membership in the European Union. Opinion polls suggest the vote is too close to call, with the “stay” and “leave” side switching leads on a regular basis, and this uncertainty is reflected in swings in the stock market, explains Nicholas Bloom. Using data from the Economic Policy Uncertainty […]

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    Immigration from the EU is not a ‘necessary evil’ and does not drag down wages

Immigration from the EU is not a ‘necessary evil’ and does not drag down wages

A major argument of the Leave campaign is that Brexit would give the UK more control over the flow of EU immigrants, who have supposedly hurt the jobs and pay of British workers. Research by Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John van Reenen shows that far from EU immigration being a ‘necessary evil’ of being in the […]