Costas Milas

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    Brexit assessments: ignorance isn’t bliss — quantitative forecasts do matter

Brexit assessments: ignorance isn’t bliss — quantitative forecasts do matter

When questioned about the government’s Brexit sectoral impact assessments, David Davis said there were none, because “economic forecasts do not work”. Costas Milas explains why this excuse does not hold up.

Quizzed at a hearing of the Exiting the European Union Committee, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis stated that there are no sectoral impact assessments […]

Budget 2017 and the economy: bad news all round

Following the 2017 Budget, Michael Ellington and Costas Milas offer some first comments on why, regardless of whether one supports Britain’s exit from the EU or not, the current situation is not good news.

To keep Brexiteers off his back, Chancellor Hammond did not spell it out, but Brexit-related uncertainty is taking its toll on the economy: anaemic GDP growth […]

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    Why the Bank of England should change how it publishes the future path of interest rates

Why the Bank of England should change how it publishes the future path of interest rates

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee should revisit the issue of publishing its own future path of interest rates, argue Michael Ellington and Costas Milas. They review the current process and explain why it is not very effective.

It was widely expected and indeed happened. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided, by a 7-2 majority, to […]

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    How will a Bank of England interest rate hike affect the economy?

How will a Bank of England interest rate hike affect the economy?

In anticipation of the Bank of England’s interest rate hike, Michael Ellington and Costas Milas consider the Monetary Policy Committee’s options, and suggest that a hike be avoided until the direction of the Brexit negotiations becomes clearer.

Greek philosopher and mathematician Pythagoras of Samos famously said that “Silence is better than unmeaning words”. This is something that the Bank of […]

Brexit and the Gordian knot of the UK productivity puzzle

Economic uncertainty following the EU referendum, as well as additional political uncertainty stemming from the recent High Court decision to allow Parliament to vote on the deal, might delay the government’s preferred timing for triggering Article 50 by March 2017. There is therefore potential for fuelling investment uncertainty and delaying a steady recovery in UK productivity, explain Michael Ellington […]

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    Let Mark Carney do his job – why this is not the time to replace the Governor of the Bank of England

Let Mark Carney do his job – why this is not the time to replace the Governor of the Bank of England

With Brexit and a period of increasing economic uncertainty upon us, this is not the time to replace the Governor of the Bank of England. Indeed, it is Mark Carney himself who should seek certain reassurances from the government before he confirms his Governorship for another five years, writes Costas Milas.

A series of Halloween monetary policy stories emerged over […]

To raise or not to raise interest rates?

The current economic outlook in the UK as well as global market conditions justify a policy rate of 0.5 per cent. In fact, if we are looking at the international environment for policy rate “hints”, financial volatility rather than the federal funds rate is the variable to keep an eye on. Starting with small and carefully implemented Monetary Policy Committee […]

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    How monitoring online ‘Brexit’ talk can weigh the EU referendum result

How monitoring online ‘Brexit’ talk can weigh the EU referendum result

The UK electorate will vote on whether to exit the EU in a referendum before the end of 2017. Costas Milas writes that it is important that for David Cameron and the government to monitor closely whether ‘Brexit’ talk continues to receive, in coming months, the attention of the EU public. This will help form a set of realistic demands while also ensuring that […]