General Election 2015

The last general election was held on 7 May 2015. Here, we’ve compiled all our relevant articles that cover the theme.

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    Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

The British Polling Council recently published their report about what went wrong with the polls in the 2015 general election. The report dismissed problems associated with voter registration, question wording, postal voting and mode of interviewing and opted for unrepresentative samples as the key factor in explaining what happened. Here, Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke make the case for […]

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    The case of the missing marginals: Labour’s task in 2020 is harder than they currently realise

The case of the missing marginals: Labour’s task in 2020 is harder than they currently realise

Few analyses of the election result have got beyond the headline outcome and started to unpick the detail. Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie and David Manley do this for the pattern of marginal seats before and after the contest and cone up with some highly significant findings.

The result of the 2015 general election in Great Britain can be summarised in […]

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    There was no rise in Scottish nationalism: Understanding the SNP victory

There was no rise in Scottish nationalism: Understanding the SNP victory

It is a mistake, committed by many, to equate a substantial SNP vote with an alleged rise in nationalism or nationalist sentiment in Scotland, argues Jan Eichhorn. The evidence indicates the contrary: data from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey suggests that fewer people emphasise their Scottish national identity distinctively. 

The 2015 general election will be memorable for many reasons, a key one […]

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    Why the pre-election polls get it so wrong: Is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

Why the pre-election polls get it so wrong: Is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

Many of the lessons from the polling debacle of 1992 have been learned, but it may be time to address the underlying causes of the error rather than just treating the symptoms, writes Oliver Heath.
The last time the pre-election polls got it this wrong was 1992 – when the polls predicted a slight lead for Labour only for the Tories […]

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    Did Britain’s right-wing newspapers win the election for the Tories?

Did Britain’s right-wing newspapers win the election for the Tories?

In the 2015 election campaign, almost all newspapers were extremely pro-Conservative and rabidly anti-Labour. Bart Cammaerts writes that if almost all media are so enthusiastically choosing the same ideological side, this will inevitably have a profound impact on public opinion which is dangerous for democracy.
The day after the unexpected defeat of the Labour leader Neil Kinnock in the 1992 election, […]

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    The ‘shy’ English nationalists who won it for the Tories and flummoxed the pollsters

The ‘shy’ English nationalists who won it for the Tories and flummoxed the pollsters

Most newspapers concluded that the Tories mainly won over Lib Dem and Labour waverers to score a surprising majority in the general election. However, as Eric Kaufmann shows here, it was really the English nationalist penumbra around UKIP, rather than Lib Dem or Labour switchers, that explains the great polling calamity. 

Like most who watched the election, I was stunned by the […]

Where is the real Manifesto for Growth?

As voters go to the polls in a knife-edge election, Labour’s popularity on the NHS is counter-balanced by the Tory’s reputation for economic competence. But is this reputation deserved? John Van Reenen writes that a real manifesto for growth requires a coherent long-term plan at the heart of government.

Last week, the ONS revealed that growth of national income halved to 0.3 […]

Explaining the Exit Poll

At 10pm on election day, the ballots will close, and the counting will begin. It may be many hours before it becomes clear which party has the most seats in the new parliament, and many days until we know which parties will form the next government. However, shortly after the 10 o’clock deadline, broadcasters will release a forecast based on […]