General Election 2015 Blog

Would the Conservatives have been better off under AV?

The 2011 Alternative Vote (AV) referendum was rejected by a substantial majority of the British public, and was opposed by the Conservative party. In this post, Chris Hanretty, one of the team at electionforecast.co.uk, investigates whether the Conservatives would have benefitted in the 2015 election from an AV electoral system. He finds that it is likely that the AV […]

Focus on… the Midlands

In this post, the team at electionforecast.co.uk discuss their predictions for the East and West Midlands. They find that the battle between the Conservatives and Labour to become the plurality party is likely to be decided in the Midlands.

See Cherry Miller’s analysis of the campaign in the (West) Midlands here.

The 105 constituencies that comprise the East and West Midlands […]

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    Survey results show a renewed politics of redistribution in the UK

Survey results show a renewed politics of redistribution in the UK

In this article, Bart Cammaerts presents the findings of a representative survey he conducted into people’s attitudes towards the aftermath of the financial crisis and austerity. His results show that the majority of people in the UK do not consider that they are necessarily better off after five years of coalition government, and that there has been a broad shift towards what he calls a […]

In defence of televised debates in UK elections

In this post, Kristi Winters and Edzia Carvalho explain that, for all the criticisms, few participants in the Qualitative Election Study of Britain think that televised debates should be done away with altogether.

There was a lot of debate about the televised debates again. Responding to critiques that the 2010 format only included the three main party leaders, significant changes were […]

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    Citizens forecast a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party

Citizens forecast a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party

Can citizens forecast the outcome of the UK election? In this post, Andreas Murr presents the results of his forecasting model, which predicts constituency level results by asking citizens in each constituency which party they think is likely to win in their area. The forecast suggests that there will be a hung parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest […]

What would the election look like under PR?

The further fragmentation of the UK’s party system in 2015 is likely to lead to the most disproportionate outcome of any election in the post-war era. In this post, Jack Blumenau and Simon Hix, along with the team from electionforecast.co.uk, ask what the House of Commons might look like if the election were held under a more proportionate voting […]

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    Gender and the UK labour market: The evidence on whether ‘family-friendly’ policies can make a difference

Gender and the UK labour market: The evidence on whether ‘family-friendly’ policies can make a difference

While there has been improvement over the last couple of decades, there remains large ‘gender gaps’ in employment and wages. Ghazala Azmat explores the evidence on the key drivers of gender gaps and the effectiveness of ‘family-friendly’ policies to address them, highlighting the policy proposals of the main political parties in this election. 

Differences in the labour market experiences of men and women […]

Voter power to the people?

Of the many indicators of various kinds hosted on the constituency pages of the Democratic Dashboard , none gets such a reaction as the Voter Power Index. In this article, Carl Cullinane explains how, because of the UK’s First Past The Post electoral system, some voters come to wield far more influence than others. Not only is this unfair, but the inequity that comes […]