Jack Blumenau

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    Why party leader approval ratings do not predict election outcomes

Why party leader approval ratings do not predict election outcomes

Ahead of the 2015 general election, Jack Blumenau found a weak relationship between party leader approval ratings and election outcomes. In light of the 2017 election, he re-run the analysis and here he explains why the data confirmed his earlier conclusion.

During the 2015 UK general election I wrote a piece for the LSE election blog which looked at whether […]

What would the election look like under PR?

The further fragmentation of the UK’s party system in 2015 is likely to lead to the most disproportionate outcome of any election in the post-war era. In this post, Jack Blumenau and Simon Hix, along with the team from electionforecast.co.uk, ask what the House of Commons might look like if the election were held under a more proportionate voting […]

Britain’s evolving multi-party system(s)

Throughout the short campaign, this blog will publish a series of posts that focus on each of the electoral regions in the UK. In this post, Jack Blumenau and Simon Hix discuss the overall picture of party competition across these different regions. They show that different regions face different constellations of competitive parties, and that there has been a steady increase in […]

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    New electoral registration rules mean students are likely to be under-represented in the 2015 election

New electoral registration rules mean students are likely to be under-represented in the 2015 election

In this post, Jack Blumenau, Simon Hix, and Tony Travers argue that recent changes to the electoral registration process are likely to have significant consequences for the representation of students in the election in May.

Last week saw the release of the latest electoral registration data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS).  This release is particularly notable, as it […]

First past the post: when you can lose and still win?

In this post, the team at electionforecast.co.uk discuss the likely relationship between seats and votes in the 2015 general election. They show that the geographical distribution of support for smaller parties can lead to large discrepancies in the numbers of votes required to win extra seats. Additionally, they calculate the probability that the largest party in terms of votes […]

Do party leader approval ratings predict election outcomes?

A significant amount of attention is given to opinion polls measuring the popularity of party leaders. The implication of much of this coverage is that the approval of party leaders matters when voters cast their votes. While photos of leaders struggling to eat sandwiches, or wearing inappropriate holiday attire, may make for good copy, what evidence is there to suggest that the popularity […]

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    Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future

Forecasting election results is hard. Forecasting UK election results is even harder. Forecasting in 2015 will be harder still. Over the coming months, this blog will showcase a wide variety of academic research analysing the forthcoming UK general election, with a particular focus on those researchers who are trying to predict the election outcome. In the introductory post to the […]

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    Avoiding talk of the deficit has been a systematic feature of Labour’s contribution to the economic debate

Avoiding talk of the deficit has been a systematic feature of Labour’s contribution to the economic debate

Ed Miliband was roundly mocked for ‘forgetting’ to mention the deficit in his speech to the Labour Party conference. However, as Jack Blumenau shows in this post, avoiding talk of the deficit is a systematic feature of Labour’s contributions to the political debate about the economy over the past four years. In a statistical analysis of parliamentary speeches, he […]