Lewis Baston

Five wards to watch out for overnight

With the local elections underway and the result coming in overnight, Lewis Baston writes about five wards which we should be looking out for. They are: Waddon ward, Croydon, Silverwood ward, Rotherham; Langdon Hills ward, Basildon; Fratton ward, Portsmouth; and Carshalton Central ward, Sutton. 
At 10pm this evening the voting will stop and the ballot boxes will be sealed. It […]

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    In tomorrow’s 2014 local elections UKIP are likely to poll a lot of votes but win few seats

In tomorrow’s 2014 local elections UKIP are likely to poll a lot of votes but win few seats

The local elections take place this tomorrow, and the seats up for grabs are largely those that were last contested in 2010, at the same time as the general election. The intriguing question this time, as with the European elections, is how far the UKIP tide will reach. Lewis Baston thinks that the most likely result is that UKIP will poll […]

What to watch for in the 2013 local elections

With results from the local elections expected tomorrow, Lewis Baston provides a preview of what to look out for, from key constituencies to the process of forming coalitions in divided councils. In particular, it may be fascinating to see what happens if the Conservatives lose control of some councils but can still govern if they form coalitions with UKIP councillors. There […]

2013 local elections: Votes cast in the sorts of places where general elections are decided are the most accurate indicator of party prospects in 2015

The commonly used yardsticks of how well the national parties are doing in local elections can be confusing or deliberately misleading, and there is likely to be a lot of ‘spin’ after the elections of Thursday 2 May. Lewis Baston argues that studying the votes cast in marginal parliamentary constituencies, particularly in areas where there have been other local elections since […]

There was more to George Galloway’s triumph in the Bradford West by-election than celebrity politics

The shock victory of George Galloway in last year’s Bradford West by-election provoked much media speculation as to its causes. Some pointed to Galloway’s alleged celebrated status, others suggested the campaign’s success was due to its innovative use of social media. Lewis Baston explains how there is an element of truth in both explanations but that there is much more we can learn from these events […]

Another hung parliament? The difference between a Labour or Conservative Government in 2015 may come down to a handful of Midlands’ votes

The Conservatives could lose 100 parliamentary seats if they ignore the rot in their vote share that is spreading across Northern cities and boroughs writes Lewis Baston. Another strong vote for UKIP could also gift Labour some vital Midlands seats. The pattern of votes cast in recent local elections suggests that the northern and southern electorates are continuing to polarise. The […]

The results of the Bradford West by-election indicate that something clearly went wrong with the Labour campaign, and that there is a political space for populists like Galloway

Lewis Baston looks at the results of the by-election in Bradford West and explains how the particularities of the constituency enabled George Galloway’s victory. He argues that the results confirm that there is a big political space for populists and celebrities, and that the Labour party’s vote is clearly soft and vulnerable. The by-election campaign in Bradford West went nearly unnoticed by politicians and the media. The outcome has been […]

Despite Labour’s convincing victory in the Feltham and Heston by-election, there is no strong trend in the party’s favour.

Yesterday’s by-election in Feltham and Heston saw one of the lowest by-election turnouts in recent years. And while Labour’s superior efforts on the ground to increase turnout in the Labour-loyal areas of the constituency were effective, Lewis Baston argues that in light of other recent by-elections, the result does not signify a significant swing back to Labour nationally. Despite Labour’s […]