Matthew Goodwin

Why Theresa May’s gamble at the polls failed

What was the impact of Brexit on the 2017 general election result? What difference did the collapse of UKIP make? And what was the relative importance of factors such as turnout, education, age, and ethnic diversity on support for the two main parties? In a new article forthcoming in Political Quarterly, Oliver Heath and Matthew Goodwin answer these questions.

Theresa May’s […]

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    A tale of two countries: Brexit and the ‘left behind’ thesis

A tale of two countries: Brexit and the ‘left behind’ thesis

Why did Britain vote for Brexit? What was the relative importance of social class, age, and immigration? And to what extent did the vote for Brexit map on to past campaigns by Ukip? Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath use aggregate-level data to analyse the Brexit vote in a paper forthcoming in Political Quarterly. They summarise the findings.

The referendum result is now […]

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    Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain […]

Putting ‘Counter-Jihad’ Groups Under The Microscope

The electorally orientated populist parties which have long dominated the radical right have recently been joined by more chaotic and unpredictable ‘counter-Jihad’ groups. Matthew Goodwin explains how these groups differ from their more traditional party based antecedents, before presenting the findings of his recent project which surveyed 1,666 British adults and 300 supporters of the EDL. Amidst crisis and austerity the radical […]

Party campaigns matter, including for those on the extremist fringe

It is widely accepted that the manner in which a party campaigns will shape its overall performance. Yet Matthew Goodwin observes that this has failed to translate into detailed research on party campaigning by parties on the radical and extremist fringe. In a recent project which focused on the 2010 general election campaign by the extreme right British National Party […]

Immigration and identity: An open letter to Labour

The centre-left has been outflanked on issues of immigration and  identity. Labour must connect with the ‘culturally threatened’, writes Matthew Goodwin or risk undermining the public’s trust in the political system even more. Dear Labour, You know the story well. Beginning in the late 1990s, and then fuelled by accessions to the EU, a new and unprecedented wave of migration encountered […]

We need a better understanding of what drives right-wing extremist violence

Rachel Briggs and Matthew Goodwin explore some of the factors that drive individuals to adopt a right-wing extremist identity and maintain that more research needs to be conducted into why some engage in violent activities.  The trial of Anders Breivik – and its forthcoming conclusion – has sparked a resurgence of interest in one area of research that is often ignored by […]

The British National Party’s modernization strategy didn’t appeal to voters, and its activist and membership base is shrinking by the day. But public hostility toward immigration means the prospects for the far right remain strong

Faced with a climate of public hostility over immigration, the far right British National Party (BNP) could not have chosen a more promising time to launch an electoral strategy than when Nick Griffin took leadership in 1999. Though the party failed to connect with voters over the long term, as Dr Matthew Goodwin discusses, there remains considerable potential for a more […]