Oliver Heath

Why Theresa May’s gamble at the polls failed

What was the impact of Brexit on the 2017 general election result? What difference did the collapse of UKIP make? And what was the relative importance of factors such as turnout, education, age, and ethnic diversity on support for the two main parties? In a new article forthcoming in Political Quarterly, Oliver Heath and Matthew Goodwin answer these questions.

Theresa May’s […]

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    A tale of two countries: Brexit and the ‘left behind’ thesis

A tale of two countries: Brexit and the ‘left behind’ thesis

Why did Britain vote for Brexit? What was the relative importance of social class, age, and immigration? And to what extent did the vote for Brexit map on to past campaigns by Ukip? Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath use aggregate-level data to analyse the Brexit vote in a paper forthcoming in Political Quarterly. They summarise the findings.

The referendum result is now […]

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    Why the pre-election polls get it so wrong: Is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

Why the pre-election polls get it so wrong: Is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

Many of the lessons from the polling debacle of 1992 have been learned, but it may be time to address the underlying causes of the error rather than just treating the symptoms, writes Oliver Heath.
The last time the pre-election polls got it this wrong was 1992 – when the polls predicted a slight lead for Labour only for the Tories […]

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    Has the rise of middle class politicians led to the decline of class voting in Britain?

Has the rise of middle class politicians led to the decline of class voting in Britain?

How does the social background of MPs and candidates influence voting behaviour? Analysis by Oliver Heath of class voting in Britain between 1964 and 2010 shows that the social cues that parties send voters matter and that working class voters are relatively more likely to vote Labour when the party contains many working class MPs.   

The representation of women […]