• Caroline Lucas rally
    Permalink Gallery

    Though the Green Party’s popularity may continue to rise, it is too ideological to become a ‘UKIP of the Left’

Though the Green Party’s popularity may continue to rise, it is too ideological to become a ‘UKIP of the Left’

There was an air of confidence at the Green Party annual conference last weekend, with keynote speeches painting a clear target on Labour. James Dennison argues that, though the Green Party is likely to see its vote share increase over the next few years, it neither has the anti-elite credentials nor the untapped demographic to enjoy the successes of UKIP.

With attention on […]

  • Election forecast uk
    Permalink Gallery

    Presenting a new model for forecasting the 2015 General Election

Presenting a new model for forecasting the 2015 General Election

With the 2015 General Election approaching in the distance, Chris Hanretty, Benjamin Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan have launched Election Forecast UK. Here they explain their model and the assumptions that underpin it and providing some preliminary predictions: they find another hung parliament is more likely than not (68 per cent) and that the Conservatives will edge Labour in seats (301 to […]

  • Douglas Carswell
    Permalink Gallery

    Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP may have a significant impact on the Conservatives’ 2015 hopes

Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP may have a significant impact on the Conservatives’ 2015 hopes

Today Conservative MP Douglas Carswell announced that he will be leaving the Tories and will call a by-election that he will contest as a member of UKIP. Paul Whiteley writes that it will be a hard fought by-election campaign but UKIP can win it, making it less likely that the Conservatives can win the general election next year if they do so.

Douglas Carswell, the Conservative […]

  • houses of parliament at dusk
    Permalink Gallery

    The widespread belief that politics is broken should not be allowed to go unchallenged

The widespread belief that politics is broken should not be allowed to go unchallenged

That politics is broken and rotten in the UK may well be the defining belief of our time. But is it broken at Westminster? Tony Wright disagrees with the pervasive assessment, writing that, though the system does require a range of political reforms, reform requires a realistic understanding of what is wrong; and a determination to work to put it right.

It is […]

  • Nigel Farage (2)
    Permalink Gallery

    Whither the UKIP vote? The 2014 local elections and implications for 2015

Whither the UKIP vote? The 2014 local elections and implications for 2015

Despite its best showing yet in the local and European elections, many are questioning whether the party can manage a breakthrough in the 2015 general election given past results. However, Steven Ayres finds that there are a number of factors that indicate things may be different this time around.

Some time on from the May 2014 European and local elections, the results may be out of […]

General election 2015: What do the bookmakers say?

Chris Hanretty analyses the current bookmakers predictions for the general election 2015. The odds from Ladbrokes imply Labour will fall short of a majority, he argues.

At the time of writing, bookmakers Ladbrokes offer odds on the winning parties in 449 of the 632 mainland Britain constituencies. Betting odds offer useful information about the probability of events happening. A bookmaker that […]

  • Alex Salmond_2007
    Permalink Gallery

    The Salmond-Darling debate played to the partisans, not the key undecided voters

The Salmond-Darling debate played to the partisans, not the key undecided voters

With the referendum fast approaching, Alistair Darling and Alex Salmond debated the merits of Scottish independence last night. In this article, John Curtice argues that both preferred to talk about subjects that matter to partisans on both sides and missed an opportunity to connect with undecided voters.

The first leaders’ debate was meant to be an opportunity for Scotland’s uncommitted – though not […]

  • Cameron et al
    Permalink Gallery

    Five minutes with John Curtice (part 3): “The problem facing the Conservatives is that so far this is a voteless economic recovery”

Five minutes with John Curtice (part 3): “The problem facing the Conservatives is that so far this is a voteless economic recovery”

Democratic Audit’s Sean Kippin recently interviewed the polling and public opinion specialist John Curtice. Here, he argues that the Conservatives will find it very difficult to win a majority in the House of Commons in 2015, and that Ed Miliband has not succeeded in framing a compelling narrative to justify voting Labour. 

The General Election polls are quite erratic but […]

Bad Behavior has blocked 25293 access attempts in the last 7 days.

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
This work by British Politics and Policy at LSE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.