Ed Miliband has announced that to counter the Conservative party’s financial advantage during the 2015 election campaign Labour will outnumber them in supporters out on the streets engaging with voters – and will benefit accordingly. Is that a sensible strategy? David Cutts, Ed Fieldhouse, Justin Fisher, Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie have done a lot of research into the impact of local campaigns […]
In this post, Tony Travers uses historical data from local elections to analyse the chances of a Labour party victory in 2015. Mirroring the general message from most current forecasting models, he finds that Labour are some way off the level that has been historically necessary for opposition parties to replace the government in UK elections.
The 2015 general election will […]
David Cameron and the Conservatives have made a number of spending pledges, most notably proposing to reduce income taxes in the next parliament. In this article, Vincenzo Bove and Georgios Efthyvoulou present research on ‘political budget cycles’ and the tendency of incumbents to engage in budget manipulations at election times.
In the last few months, in a bid to persuade voters in next year’s general election, Prime […]
Northern Ireland is suddenly relevant for Westminster elections and Westminster is relevant for Northern Ireland
What happens in the 18 constituencies of Northern Ireland next May could well be of profound importance both for the outcome at Westminster and for the stability of Northern Ireland. In past elections, MPs from Northern Ireland have been largely irrelevant to the legislative arithmetic of government formation in Westminster. However, in 2015, as Matthew Whiting shows in this […]
‘Angry voters turn to anti-politics of Nigel Farage’, the FT reports. Scotland’s ‘No’ campaign tried to scare people into voting against independence, Alex Salmond argued. Such statements are not rare. When explaining how people vote, we often turn to emotional explanations, and usually we don’t mean this as a compliment. Instead, saying that people’s decisions are emotional is used […]
Political elites often down play the importance of religion in UK elections. In this post, however, James Tilley uses survey data to show that religion remains an important predictor of party vote choice, even when controlling for a host of other voter characteristics. He argues that religious voting stems from religious divisions of the 19th and 20th century, and explores […]
Forecasting election results is hard. Forecasting UK election results is even harder. Forecasting in 2015 will be harder still. Over the coming months, this blog will showcase a wide variety of academic research analysing the forthcoming UK general election, with a particular focus on those researchers who are trying to predict the election outcome. In the introductory post to the […]
(Re)evaluating Gordon Brown: It’s important to factor context into our assessment of political leaders
Gordon Brown has received many negative evaluations for his tenure as Prime Minister. Jim Buller and Toby James argue that some of this is unfair. When taking into consideration the circumstances and how he responded, a different picture emerges.
Gordon Brown has announced his decision to ‘stand down’ as MP and not contest the next election. Brown had largely stepped back from ‘front-line’ politics after leaving […]