Party politics and elections

  • Ed-Miliband-1
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    ‘Cash for access’ scandal: What impact will Miliband’s proposals have on MPs and the public?

‘Cash for access’ scandal: What impact will Miliband’s proposals have on MPs and the public?

Jack Straw and Malcolm Rifkind, two senior MPs were snared in a sting by the Telegraph in which they appeared to offer access for cash. The Labour Party leader, Ed Miliband has responded by calling for stringent new limits on MPs extra earnings and work. In this article, Ben Worthy investigates the practicalities of Miliband’s proposals and asks whether they will increase trust in […]

  • money-and-electoral-politics
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    Contact matters: voters like to be asked personally for their support

Contact matters: voters like to be asked personally for their support

Ed Miliband has announced that to counter the Conservative party’s financial advantage during the 2015 election campaign Labour will outnumber them in supporters out on the streets engaging with voters – and will benefit accordingly. Is that a sensible strategy? David Cutts, Ed Fieldhouse, Justin Fisher, Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie have done a lot of research into the impact of local campaigns […]

  • percentage_councillors
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    What do local election results tell us about parties’ prospects in 2015?

What do local election results tell us about parties’ prospects in 2015?

In this post, Tony Travers uses historical data from local elections to analyse the chances of a Labour party victory in 2015. Mirroring the general message from most current forecasting models, he finds that Labour are some way off the level that has been historically necessary for opposition parties to replace the government in UK elections.

The 2015 general election will […]

  • Cameron rose garden
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    Electoral cycles in fiscal policy: Cameron’s pre-election pledges are aimed at solidifying support

Electoral cycles in fiscal policy: Cameron’s pre-election pledges are aimed at solidifying support

David Cameron and the Conservatives have made a number of spending pledges, most notably proposing to reduce income taxes in the next parliament. In this article, Vincenzo Bove and Georgios Efthyvoulou present research on ‘political budget cycles’ and the tendency of incumbents to engage in budget manipulations at election times. 

In the last few months, in a bid to persuade voters in next year’s general election, Prime […]

  • Belfast
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    Northern Ireland is suddenly relevant for Westminster elections and Westminster is relevant for Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland is suddenly relevant for Westminster elections and Westminster is relevant for Northern Ireland

What happens in the 18 constituencies of Northern Ireland next May could well be of profound importance both for the outcome at Westminster and for the stability of Northern Ireland. In past elections, MPs from Northern Ireland have been largely irrelevant to the legislative arithmetic of government formation in Westminster. However, in 2015, as Matthew Whiting shows in this […]

Anger and fear: how do they shape our vote?

‘Angry voters turn to anti-politics of Nigel Farage’, the FT reports. Scotland’s ‘No’ campaign tried to scare people into voting against independence, Alex Salmond argued. Such statements are not rare. When explaining how people vote, we often turn to emotional explanations, and usually we don’t mean this as a compliment. Instead, saying that people’s decisions are emotional is used […]

  • support for Labour party by religion
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    Religion is an important predictor of party choice in UK general elections

Religion is an important predictor of party choice in UK general elections

Political elites often down play the importance of religion in UK elections. In this post, however, James Tilley uses survey data to show that religion remains an important predictor of party vote choice, even when controlling for a host of other voter characteristics. He argues that religious voting stems from religious divisions of the 19th and 20th century, and explores […]

  • forecasters1
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    Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future

Forecasting election results is hard. Forecasting UK election results is even harder. Forecasting in 2015 will be harder still. Over the coming months, this blog will showcase a wide variety of academic research analysing the forthcoming UK general election, with a particular focus on those researchers who are trying to predict the election outcome. In the introductory post to the […]

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Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
This work by British Politics and Policy at LSE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.