Patrick Dunleavy

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    How ‘groupthink’ in Theresa May’s Downing Street delivered another round of UK political chaos

How ‘groupthink’ in Theresa May’s Downing Street delivered another round of UK political chaos

The UK’s political turmoil has continued with the Conservatives’ disastrous 2017 campaign. But what led to the multiple miscalculations involved? Patrick Dunleavy argues that it forms part of a wider pattern of mis-governing from the centre of Whitehall that has characterized Theresa May’s leadership style from the outset.

All British Prime Ministers end their careers in failure. Either they are […]

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    Three things we’ve learnt already from the 2017 campaign turnaround

Three things we’ve learnt already from the 2017 campaign turnaround

Thursday’s election is difficult to call in many constituencies; Jeremy Corbyn has mobilised the youth but it is unknown whether he has mobilised them enough to go out and vote; while discussions of a hung parliament were not on the cards when Theresay May confidently called the election in April. With a day left to go in this campaign, […]

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    When on Westminster Bridge people could be mowed down, did we do a good job of ‘expecting the unexpected’?

When on Westminster Bridge people could be mowed down, did we do a good job of ‘expecting the unexpected’?

Parliament’s security is under review following the attack in Westminster. But, when pedestrians could be hit next to Big Ben, there may be more to review than the protection of the building alone. Patrick Dunleavy asks whether our approaches to security are as effective as they could be, considering the constantly shifting terrorist methods. He explains why in combating […]

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    In Scotland, Wales and the London Assembly elections every voter has TWO choices this Thursday. Here’s how to use both votes well

In Scotland, Wales and the London Assembly elections every voter has TWO choices this Thursday. Here’s how to use both votes well

Voters are used to a two-vote electoral system for the Edinburgh Parliament, and the Assemblies in Cardiff and London. But how these systems operate changes a bit every time, with changing party fortunes. And this year some politicians (especially in Scotland) are advising voters to do things that may ‘waste’ one of their votes. Wherever you stand politically, Professor […]

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    Three more years of Cameron – but it will be a rocky road ahead

Three more years of Cameron – but it will be a rocky road ahead

Confounding the pollsters and the pundits, voters in England have given David Cameron another three years as Prime Minister, collapsed the Liberal Democrats to a shell and dashed the Labour elite’s dream of edging back into power via a minority government. Patrick Dunleavy unravels what was and was not historic in the 2015 general election results.
Expatiating on the historic resonance […]

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    Is a British Senate any closer now? Or will the House of Lords still go on and on?

Is a British Senate any closer now? Or will the House of Lords still go on and on?

Labour enters the 2015 election pledged to make creating a British Senate a key part of a new Constitutional Convention. The SNP surge in Scotland gives much greater urgency to the idea, since a new upper House could be one of the most important components for re-binding together a fully federal UK. Richard Reid and Patrick Dunleavy read the runes on a century-old […]

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    The UK election spells the end for the biggest ‘law’ in political science

The UK election spells the end for the biggest ‘law’ in political science

Voters are again looking beyond the traditional two-party system and look set to put paid to a famous proposition of political science, ‘Duverger’s Law’, writes Patrick Dunleavy.

Every election held under “first past the post” (FPTP) voting in the USA produces perfect two-party outcomes – no party except the Democrats and Republicans gets a look-in. Yet elections held under the same […]

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    Political and constitutional turbulence in the UK looks set to continue to 2020

Political and constitutional turbulence in the UK looks set to continue to 2020

Scotland’s ‘No’ vote solves one acute existential threat to the UK, says Patrick Dunleavy, but only for now. The likely narrow results of the May 2015 general election, plus David Cameron’s promise of another referendum on the UK leaving the European Union in 2017, both promise massive constitutional turbulence between now and 2020. For instance, if the UK votes […]