Steven Ayres

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    UKIP came second in 120 constituencies in 2015. Does this point to more seats in 2020?

UKIP came second in 120 constituencies in 2015. Does this point to more seats in 2020?

While UKIP only has one elected MP in the House of Commons, the party came second in 120 constituencies. What do these successes suggest for UKIP’s general election chances in 2020? In this article, Steven Ayres examines the question.

Just under a year ago I published an article taking a retrospective look at the 2014 European Parliament and local elections to consider what UKIP’s 2014 successes […]

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    Voter trends in 2014 reveal important lessons for the 2015 General Election

Voter trends in 2014 reveal important lessons for the 2015 General Election

Using BES survey panel data, Steven Ayres investigates three important trends with implications for 2015: changing attitudes in Scotland, whether UKIP support can be sustained, and perceptions of economic well-being under a Conservative/Labour government. 

Since 1964, the British Election Study (BES) has been surveying voters at each General Election in an attempt to establish who votes for who and why. The study […]

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    The data suggests a connection between UKIP support, skills and immigration

The data suggests a connection between UKIP support, skills and immigration

Looking at data at the ward level on qualifications and immigration, Steven Ayres finds that UKIP support seems to be affected by the interaction effect between accession country diasporas and poorly qualified UK-born residents. Evidence from areas that UKIP have not done quite as well appears to reinforce this idea.

Speculation regarding the how, why, and who of UKIP successes over recent years has continued to amass over […]

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    How regional differences in Scotland impacted on voting results in the independence referendum

How regional differences in Scotland impacted on voting results in the independence referendum

Steven Ayres explores demographic differences and voting patterns in Scotland’s independence referendum. He finds a strong positive relationship between the proportion of ‘Yes’ votes and out of work benefit claimants, and that areas with a high proportion of people born elsewhere in the UK demonstrated the weakest support for ‘Yes’. He also shows that areas with the highest vote share for the […]

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    Whither the UKIP vote? The 2014 local elections and implications for 2015

Whither the UKIP vote? The 2014 local elections and implications for 2015

Despite its best showing yet in the local and European elections, many are questioning whether the party can manage a breakthrough in the 2015 general election given past results. However, Steven Ayres finds that there are a number of factors that indicate things may be different this time around.

Some time on from the May 2014 European and local elections, the results may be out of […]