Tim Bale

Truth to tell: populism and the immigration debate

The populist surge that helped propel Brexit isn’t going to help the UK take control of its borders, writes Tim Bale. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have been honest with voters about immigration policy, and that shows little signs of changing after a hard Brexit. The gap between rhetoric and reality has given politicians the opportunity to indulge in populist promises. […]

Explaining the pro-Corbyn surge in Labour’s membership

In the course of a year and a half, Labour Party membership has increased massively. The number of full members has moved from 190,000 in May 2015 to 515,000 in July 2016 – an influx of 325,000 new members. Monica Poletti, Tim Bale and Paul Webb explore how we can explain the pro-Corbyn surge in this growth.

As part of our ESRC-funded […]

Experts react to the European election results

As anticipated by polls leading up to the vote, UKIP has won the European Parliament elections with the highest share of the vote and the most MEPs elected. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have seen a near total wipe-out, going from 11 MEPs to 1 and dropping to fifth place behind the Green Party. Labour has come in second, only […]

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    The Conservatives will face many challenges after the votes are counted in the European Parliament elections

The Conservatives will face many challenges after the votes are counted in the European Parliament elections

With the Conservatives expected to take a drubbing in the European Parliament elections later this month, Tim Bale explains some of the political problems this will present the party on the home front. There is also concern for the Conservatives on the continental front: because it is not a member of any of the big party groups in the European Parliament, the Tory […]

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    The Tories should stop their silly games about a second coalition

The Tories should stop their silly games about a second coalition

Tactically, strategically and constitutionally, it’s utter madness for the Prime Minister rule out another coalition, says Tim Bale in an article that first appeared in the Telegraph. David Cameron’s “big, open and comprehensive offer” to the Lib Dems in May 2010 was for many Right-wing Tories the ultimate confirmation of a long-held belief that their leader really wasn’t “one of […]

Cameron and the Conservatives: A start-of-term report

On virtually every measure that counts, the Prime Minister remains not just an asset to the Tories (in the sense of being more popular than his party) but way ahead of Ed Miliband. Tim Bale writes that there remains at least a reasonable chance that the Conservatives will emerge as the largest single party, giving Cameron first go at forming another government. […]

The Prime Minister is prone to sounding the alarm on immigration when his political fortunes are waning

After David Cameron’s much covered immigration speech earlier this week, Tim Bale questions whether there was anything more to the Prime Minister’s announcements than a desire to head off the advance of UKIP and turn voter’s attention away from issues on which the Government are currently failing to meet public expectations.  The Prime Minister’s Ipswich speech brings to mind the message […]

Asphyxiation Nation? This is not a budget for ‘a Britain that wants to be prosperous, solvent and free’

Tim Bale found yesterday’s budget depressingly ideological, driven by an attempt to stick to a script written by Margaret Thatcher and Geoffrey Howe in the 1980s. However he argues that this script of ‘staying the course’ is inadequate for economic challenges of the scale facing the UK.  ‘We have to hold,’ said George Osborne in his budget speech yesterday, ‘to the right […]