Posted by Patrick Dunleavy.
Update on Poll Information and MPs projections for 8:30pm on Polling Day, Thursday 6 May
We have now slightly updated our projections to take account of the final poll of the campaign, published today.
National Votes Shares
There are 8 final opinion polls published this morning and our median score measure below is based on all of them. There is a high measure of agreement that
– the Conservatives are on 35 to 37 per cent,
– Labour are on 27 to 28 per cent,
– the Liberal Democrats are on 26 to 28 per cent, and
– the Other parties are on 7 to 12 per cent.
| Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Other | Con Lead over Lab | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Populus | 37 | 28 | 28 | 7 | + 9 |
| ComRes | 37 | 28 | 28 | 7 | + 9 |
| Ipsos Mori | 36 | 29 | 27 | 9 | + 7 |
| ICM | 36 | 28 | 26 | 10 | + 8 |
| Median Scores | 36 | 28 | 27 | 9 | + 8 |
| Austin Reed | 36 | 24 | 29 | 11 | + 12 |
| Harris | 35 | 29 | 27 | 9 | + 6 |
| YouGov | 35 | 28 | 28 | 9 | + 7 |
| Opinium | 35 | 27 | 26 | 12 | + 8 |
| TNS/BMRB | 33 | 27 | 26 | 14 | + 6 |
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
GB Change of Votes 2005 – 2010
| Votes for the top three parties (and Others) | Labour | Conservatives | Liberal Democrats | Other | Con lead over Lab |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 36 | 33 | 23 | 8 | - 3 |
| 2010 Nationally | 28 | 36 | 27 | 9 | + 8 |
| Change | - 8 | + 3 | + 4 | + 1 | |
| Change in marginal seats | - 11 | + 3 | + 6 | + 2 |
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Projected MPs
1. On a uniform national swing basis, from our votes shares the Conservatives are narrowly the largest party but a Labour + Liberal Democrat coalition is still feasible.
2. If tactical voting by Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters operates this year (as in the last three elections), Labour could gain over 20 more seats and be the largest party. But the Liberal Democrats would see little extra benefit. Both Conservative/Liberal Democrat and Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition governments are viable.
3. If Labour loses more support in its marginal seats than nationwide (see above), the Conservatives would soar ahead in winning MPs, putting Cameron in sight almost of an overall majority. The Liberal Democrats’ seats tally would also grow a lot at Labour’s expense. Labour’s parliamentary representation would reduce by nearly 140 MPs. Hence only a Conservative minority government or a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition are feasible outcomes.
| Projected MPs | LSE seats Projection with Lab/Lib tactical voting | LSE seats Projection Uniform swing | LSE seats Projection add Con lead in marginal seats | BBC Seats Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 277 | 288 | 310 | 284 |
| Labour | 255 | 246 | 211 | 257 |
| Liberal Democrats | 89 | 84 | 97 | 80 |
| Other Parties | 14 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Majority Shortfall (for Cons from 326) | 52 | 38 | 16 | 42 |
| Viable coalitions | Con + Lib Lab + Lib | Con + Lib Lab + Lib | Con + Lib only | Con + Lib Lab + Lib |
Technical note: Our poll tracking methodology is described here. For seats projections we use a uniform national swing from the 2005 adjusted results, with some small tweaks for tactical voting. The working majority level is 326 for Labour, but only 318 for the Conservatives, who can rely on Unionist MPs from Northern Ireland to support them.
4. These differences dramatize how much the electoral system can now behave in a very volatile way in response to very small variations in the balance of parties’ support.
More interesting is the unprecedented level of ‘undecided’ voters – more than a third of likely voters haven’t yet made their minds up, according to most polls. If Ipsos-Mori is right, these people could defy expectation in the ballot box and break overwhelmingly for the Liberal Democrats.
Either way, I think most of the pollsters will be in for a surprise tonight.
JQ has written to ask:
I was hoping that I could impose on you one last time during this campaign to discuss an out-there kind of scenario – in particular, I’m wondering what
would have to happen for the Tories were to win a majority (I know, unlikely!)
Patrick Dunleavy replied:
It’s not at all too out there. If the Conservatives hold their support in Labour-held Con-Lab marginals, but Labour lose more of their voters to the Liberal Democrats and far right parties in these marginal seats than they do in the country as a whole, then our estimates above show that the Tories could win 310 MPs. There is data on this effect.
It would only need the Conservatives to increase their support in Labour held marginsl by around more than 1% above their level in the country as a whole, and they could be in majority territory. We don’t have data showing this yrt though.