The US will have a new president in January 2025. Abubakar Abubakar Usman looks back on Joe Biden’s legacy in Africa.

With less than four months remaining until the US presidential elections, the announcement that President Joe Biden is not seeking re-election has sent shockwaves around the world. Regardless of the result of the election, the US will have a new president in the White House next January after four years of Joe Biden. A change in leadership of a major power inevitably carries political, economic, and strategic ramifications worldwide. For Africa, it is crucial to reflect on President Biden’s legacy on the continent and ponder the potential foreign policy changes under either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

Upon becoming the 46th President of the US, Joe Biden declared, “America is back.” His inauguration raised expectations among African nations, that endured derogatory remarks from Donald Trump, who infamously referred to African countries as “shithole countries.” To reinforce these heightened expectations, President Biden quickly promised “mutually respectful relations” and lifted the travel ban on citizens from several Muslim-majority countries, including some in West Africa, which had been imposed by his predecessor.

Fast forward to 2024, we can now assess whether the Biden administration lived up to expectations. It looks like a case of missed opportunities. The US proclaims to be focused on promoting democracy, fighting terrorism, and enhancing security in Africa. Unfortunately, Africa has been made a priority of US foreign policy. As a result, Russia and China, the two biggest US competitors, have grown their influence across the continent.

Promoting democracy

According to the V-Dem project, democracy in Africa has suffered more since 2020 than in any other region. With eight successful military coups in the last four years, Africa has seen as many coups in that time as it did in the entire decade of 2010-2019.

The Biden administration has done little to counter the deterioration of democracy across the continent. In fact, the US was implicated in the military coup in Guinea, with strong evidence that the US military had trained the junta that toppled President Alpha Condé’s government. And the administration has shown neither the desire nor the will to counter the influence of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organisation, that has moved from one African country to another (Burkina Faso, Central Africa Republic, Libya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mali, Niger, Sudan), helping to topple democratically elected regimes.

In December 2022, President Biden held the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit, attended by 49 of the 54 African leaders who discussed the importance of democracy, governance, and human rights. However, two years later, there is no evidence that the Summit has achieved any tangible results. Popular support for democracy has sharply declined, particularly in countries that have experienced a return to military rule, including Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, and Mali. Even South Africa has seen a significant drop in support for democracy.

The military juntas that have taken power since 2020 show no signs of returning their respective countries to democratic rule and continue to enjoy substantial popular support. A survey conducted by Afrobarometer between 2021 and 2022 across 28 African countries revealed that 53 per cent of respondents approved of military intervention if elected officials abuse power. Currently, none of these juntas have committed to any timeframe for a return to democratic governance. Additionally, they have become increasingly aligned with Russia, relying on it for security guarantees and support in their battles against terrorism and insurgencies.

Security and the fight against terrorism

The second main theme of US Africa policy under President Biden is security and the fight against terrorism. Since Biden took office in 2020, there has been a rise in violent extremism, particularly from Islamist movements such as the Islamic State in the West African Province, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, and Al Shabaab. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel region has already seen a significant increase in violence in 2024 even in regions where the US has maintained a substantial security presence.

In many African nations, including Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique, and Sudan, Russia’s Wagner Group has been very active. The group engages in various activities across the continent. It has worked with rebels to destabilise the government in Chad, trained and aided the military in Burkina Faso to execute a coup, and act as security guards to mines and the presidents of the Central African Republic and Madagascar.

In March 2024, Niger’s military junta officially revoked the country’s military cooperation agreement with the US and asked American forces to leave. By May 2024, before US troops had fully withdrawn, Russian forces had already taken over US Air Base 101 in Niamey. Additionally, US troops were forced to withdraw from N’Djamena in April 2024.

These developments highlight the growing influence of Russia in Africa and the challenges faced by the Biden administration in maintaining its strategic foothold on the continent, even in the field of security which is supposed to be an area of focus.

Great power competition

Africa’s increasing significance in the global economic value chain has made the continent a battleground for great power competition, primarily among the US, China, and Russia. Evidence from Africa Monitor shows that Africa’s share in global value chains and economic production has been steadily increasing since 2000. Recently, both China and Russia have gained more influence in Africa, coinciding with a decline in Western power on the continent. This shift may be one of the reasons behind the rising number of military coups in Africa, as China and Russia provide economic, security, and diplomatic cover that frees a country from its previous dependency on the West.

According to the IMF, in 2023, China’s trade with Africa reached £236 billion, four times the US-Africa trade. This economic leverage has allowed China to assert more influence over African countries, which have shown a preference for Chinese investments over US liberal democratic values. This is in contrast to the US and its Bretton Woods institutions that give policy-related conditions before approving loans and aid.

Russia has capitalised on growing anti-French sentiment, especially in former Francophone countries, to reassert its influence in Africa. It has supported the formation of the Sahel Alliance, a new security coalition between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. In recent years, Russia has held two Russia-Africa Summit, with the latest in 2023 despite attempts to deter African participation. The first summit in 2019 was attended by 43 African heads of state, while the 2023 summit saw 17 heads of state and 49 delegations.

President Biden’s administration began with efforts to reshape US-Africa relations. However, four years into his term, Biden has struggled to translate rhetoric into tangible action, leaving US influence in Africa arguably at its lowest point. Vice President Kamala Harris, who visited Africa in March 2023, is set to be the Democratic Party’s candidate in this year’s election. During her visit, she promised deeper and more long-term relations between the US and Africa. Despite these assurances, the Biden-Harris administration’s relationship with Africa has been disappointing. The future of US-Africa relations under a potential Harris presidency remains uncertain. Moreover, with the possibility of Trump’s return, US-Africa relations could face even greater challenges.

Photo credit: Prachatai used with permission CC BY-NC-ND 2.0