The continued violence and instability in Ethiopia and Sudan threatens to spill over into strategically valuable locations such as Djibouti which might have knock-on effects for global security and prosperity, writes Wubante Ayalew Dessie.
The Horn of Africa region has been suffering manifold political and security problems in recent years. These problems stem from poor governance and the political dominance of some ethnic and linguistic groups despite the multi-ethnic makeup of the countries in the region.
The Horn of Africa is a triangular body of land bordered by large bodies of water; the Nile River in the West; the Red Sea in the North, and the Indian Ocean in the East.
It is a part of the world where a diverse range of geopolitical interests intersect, including maritime security, counterterrorism, and resource competition.
In the region, there are many insurgent and resurrection groups fighting against the ruling government due to the government’s failure to establish democratic and inclusive governance in the region. Sudan and Ethiopia have been suffering civil wars since 2020.
In Sudan, in mid-April 2023, fighting erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
This conflict was generated by a power struggle between the military leaders Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF and Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF, and it has evolved into a war of survival. The result has been a huge loss of life and displacement of millions of Sudanese people.
Ethiopia has been suffering consecutive civil wars. The most shocking war was between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). This war was concluded by Pretoria’s agreement. But, no sooner had that conflict ended than another civil war broke out between the Amhara Fano and the central government. This constant violence is reinforcing ethnic tensions across Ethiopia.
Implications for global security
The Horn of Africa is one of the most vital and strategic areas of Africa and the global economy. It is a bridge between Africa and the Middle East, as well as a gateway to the oilfields of the Persian Gulf. For 150 years, the Horn has also been a theatre for strategic power struggles. It is situated in a strategic location with ports on the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean has made it a very important place in world politics and security.
The security problems in Sudan and Ethiopia affect the political and security issues in Djibouti which is a strategic trading post.
Djibouti shares most of its land border with Ethiopia and there are strong ethnic, political and economic ties on either side of that line. Ethiopia is a landlocked country and so has had to use Djibouti as a port for its maritime imports and exports. During the recent civil wars, rebel groups in Ethiopia has regularly tried to cut off this connection to thwart the central government in Addis Ababa.
Alongside its trading importance, Djibouti is a strategically valuable military location. It lies at the mouth of the Red Sea so protecting the waterways around it is vital for access to the Suez Canal. Djibouti hosts the US, as well as France, Saudi Arabia, and Japan. China, India, and Russia are also keen to have a presence in the country. Regardless of the messy situation in its neighbourhood, Djibouti offers an excellent position for foreign militaries to project their power.
The political instability, civil unrest and humanitarian crises in the Horn specifically in Ethiopia and Sudan have spillover effects on regional and international stability.
Hence, the adequate response from the international community is required to manage the political and security problems of the Horn. Stop supporting dictatorial political leaders. Promote indigenous conflict resolution institutions for addressing intra-sate conflicts esteemed from resource computation, and ethnic/linguistic rivalry could ensure sustainable peace and security in the horn.
Photo credit: Stuart Rankin used with permission CC BY-NC 2.0
