The US is not a fan of South Africa’s BRICS allies, but it needs South Africa’s raw materials to safeguard its economic future, writes Scott Firsing.
The bilateral relationship between the US and South Africa has come under increased strain in recent years, largely due to South Africa’s increasing ties with countries Washington considers adversaries; China, Russia, and Iran.
On the face of it, you would expect the two countries to work well together. But political tensions between Pretoria and Washington have been a recurring feature since 1994, when South Africa changed from apartheid to democratic rule, led by the African National Congress (ANC).
Many of the old guard of the ANC that fought the apartheid government for freedom, some still in office today, remember the support they were given by Moscow and Tehran, which was not so forthcoming from Washington. They also remember the US continued to label the ANC a terrorist organisation until 2008.
Recent tensions between the two nations have been sparked by concerns among American officials about ANC corruption and growing South African relations with China and Russia. Washington is worried that the growth of the BRICS grouping – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – might affect its global interests. Particularly now that the grouping now includes Iran, with whom the US has a hostile relationship.
In March 2024, the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee passed the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act. The aim is to investigate whether South Africa’s actions are undermining US national security or foreign policy interests. Since March, operative clauses of the initial US-South Africa bill have found their way as amendments into the National Defense Authorization Act and were passed by the full US House. They still need to be adopted by the Senate.
The US relies on South African metals and minerals that are essential for its economy and national security. Along with significant economic and cultural ties between the two nations, this has historically prevented severe actions against South Africa. The two nations also share a mutual commitment to democracy. This should tame possible harsh US actions against South Africa in the immediate future. However, the longer-term future is full of uncertainty and will depend on both South Africa’s domestic and international actions.
Economics
The US’s main economic interest in South Africa is its abundant metals and minerals – resources that are vital for US national security and its future. South Africa has the world’s largest reserves of chrome, gold, manganese and platinum group metals.
As far back as 1981, President Ronald Reagan acknowledged that South Africa was:
“a country that has stood by us in every war we’ve ever fought, a country that strategically is essential to the free world in its production of minerals we all must have.”
Today, with the technological revolution enhancing the demand for the resources South Africa is abundant in, the relationship is arguably more vital to US interests than ever before.
Bilateral trade between the two nations has grown and grown since 1994. In 2023, US trade with South Africa was $7.1 billion worth of exports and $13.98 billion in imports, making South Africa the US’s largest trade partner in Africa.
These numbers have been helped by the 2020 African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). It provides duty free access for certain South African goods into the US. Agoa has helped South Africa push cars, coal, wine and other goods to the US market. It is set to expire in September 2025.
Metals and minerals are the biggest South African exports to the US. In 2021, platinum group metals were almost half of South Africa’s exports to the US; and nearly 100 per cent of the US’s global chromium supply.
The US Department of Defense considers the minerals the “building blocks” of a thriving economy and strong national defence. They can be found in almost every electronic device, and support high paying US jobs.
South Africa dominates platinum and iridium production – both pivotal for the expanding US hydrogen economy. Chromium is used to protect parts of many marine, automobile, aircraft and computer components from corrosion. Many of these uses have no alternative.
Russia is a formidable player in the resources arena, but given volatile US-Russia relations due to the Ukraine war, US imports of Russian platinum dried up completely in 2023, with the exception of palladium.
South Africa is a key destination for US foreign direct investment and is home to over 600 US companies which employ around 148,000 people. As of 2022, US investment in South Africa amounted to $7.4 billion. Many major American corporations, such as Ford and General Electric, maintain a strong presence in South Africa. There are also 22 South African companies operating in the US, employing 6,900 people.
The US is also a major source of tourists for South Africa. US tourist numbers spiked by 39.5 per cent from January to November 2023, compared with the same period in 2022.
Cultural ties
South Africa and the US also share other deep cultural connections. These include educational exchanges that span decades. In the 2022/23 academic year, there were 2,713 South Africans studying in the US, a high for southern African countries.
Washington is trying to jump-start these figures through more targeted initiatives Atlanta Phambili like , which aims to deepen US-South Africa bilateral ties through “Atlanta’s academic institutions, diaspora connections, and economic dynamism”.
The two nations also share a commitment to democracy, which cannot be said of China and Russia
The path forward
The Bilateral Review Act aside, managing South Africa-US bilateral relations going forward will not be simple. An enlarged BRICS complicates the situation, along with the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as Chinese threats to Taiwan.
Politicians on both sides of the aisle will be watching South Africa closely, on the international and domestic fronts. South Africa’s critical resources are vital to the US’s future. South Africa’s worsening energy and water and overall economic crises could affect its continued mining ability and the ability to produce the high-level goods that the US needs.
Many aren’t so sure, and Washington is starting to hedge its bet by building mineral supply chains independent of China, and if it comes to it, South Africa. This includes the US-led Mineral Security Partnership with 14 of its allies and the EU.
Key US institutions must prioritise access to vital metals and minerals, perpetuate further bilateral and multilateral collaborations, and investigate untapped domestic prospects, to boost production and secure critical supply chains.
Unfortunately, multiple events over the past month indicate the South African Government of National Unity, and the ANC in particular, are not going to sway from their close relations with US adversaries.
On 29 August, a Russian naval training ship docked in Cape Town harbour to strengthen bilateral naval ties. Days later, SA President Ramaphosa met with President Xi Jinping where he announced the “elevation of bilateral ties to an all-round strategic cooperative partnership in the new era.” At the same time, back in South Africa, the ANC in the Western Cape confirmed its full support for Hamas. Meanwhile, a senior manager for the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) wrote that South Africa is deeply concerned about efforts underway by some in the US Congress to undermine their country and their foreign policy of active non-alignment and cordial relations with all countries.
The US military was noticeably absent from September’s 2024 Africa Aerospace and Defence Exhibition in Pretoria. South Africa’s Defence Ministry had failed to confirm the application of the 1999 Status of Forces Agreement, which is usually a regular routine occurrence during the past 25 years.
On a positive note, there is a new generation of South African leaders who can help manage tensions over major geopolitical issues and trade initiatives. South African leaders like Parks Tau, South Africa’s new minister of trade recently arguing for an Agoa extension until 2041 at the 2024 AGOA Forum in Washington DC at the end of July. Additionally, DIRCO Minister Ronald Lamola last week had a “productive” visit to Washington DC meeting with important stakeholders including the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Africa, the Congressional Black Caucus, the US Chamber of Commerce, and various bipartisan think tanks.
Continuous dialogue is essential, and various levels of South Africa-US engagement including bilateral commissions, and business and military forums, many in place for decades, must continue. At the end of the day, South Africa’s future actions will speak louder than their words and the country remains a vital partner for the US.
Photo credit: GovernmentZA used with permission CC BY-ND 2.0
