Egyptian troops in Somalia could inflame geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa, even if they are sent there to help keep the peace, writes Wubante Dessie.
The Horn of Africa is the far northeast region of Africa. It comprises Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Sudan and South Sudan, with shores bordering the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. In recent years, the countries of the Horn of African have been overwhelmed with border disputes, civil unrest and droughts. These pressures have resulted in economic depression, political violence and widespread instability.
Somalia has gripped by civil war and human right violations for years. Somalia regularly suffers attacks from the terrorist group al-Shabaab, a Sunni Islamist military and political organization active in East Africa.
It is not only Somalia under attack from al-Shabaab. Ethiopia has been engaged in fighting this terrorist group for the last four decades. Ethiopia has deployed more than a thousand troops in Somalia under African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) which was a multilateral force established by African Union.
Egypt has not been involved in the efforts against al-Shabaab. Until recently, when Egypt signed memorandum of understanding with Somalia and reached an agreement to send more than 10,000 troops to Somalia and provide weapons to its government.
Geopolitics of the Horn
On the face of it, this move will help in the fight against a terrorist organisation causing pain and instability across the region. But it could also affect Ethiopia’s national interest and the Horn’s geopolitics.
Egypt and Ethiopia have been busy in hurling insults at each other over Ethiopia’s efforts to utilise the water from the river Nile by building Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The GERD project on the Blue Nile officially started in April 2011 in Guba near the Ethiopia-Sudan border. It will reserve 74 billion cubic meters of water and generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. Egypt is concerned that the project will affect the amount of water that flows into the country, which is vital for agriculture and a booming Cairo. This diplomatic war of words is threatening to develop into a cold war between the two with each side backing proxies in an attempt to undermine the other.
There has been historic enmity and confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia due to Nile River, of which 86 per cent originates from Ethiopia. Egyptian elites and scholars contend that Ethiopia is not allowed to construct any water development projects without consulting Egypt based on previous agreements that Ethiopia says it is not party to.
Ethiopia is currently in the grip of political instability. There is great levels of human suffering, atrocities and material destructions in several parts of the country, which is becoming deeply divided along ethnic and linguistic lines.
Egypt is trying to use Ethiopia’s internal divisions to its’ benefit to maintain its access to Nile water. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government categorises Egypt as a security threat and has accused Egypt of destabilising Ethiopia by supporting insurgent groups in the country.
In Benishangul National Regional State, where the Grand Renaissance Dam is being built, insurgent groups like Gumuz Liberation Front have been organised and supported by Egyptian military deployed in Sudan. In this region, there had been mass killing, displacement and ethnic conflicts produced and supported by Egypt.
Egypt has been engaging in proxy war against Ethiopia to obstruct Ethiopia efforts of utilizing the Nile. It has been claimed that Egyptian intelligence and military have been engaging in training and supplying military equipment to Gumuz Liberation Army in Benshangul Gumuze national regional state (BNRS) for creating hostile environment in the region. This will be replicated there is the eastern part of Ethiopia specifically Somali National Regional Sate (SNRS).
The eastern part of Ethiopia, Somali National Regional Sate, has been a relatively safe and peaceful region. This region shares border with Somalia, but it has been innocuous and nonviolent until now.
The fear is that the arrival of Egyptian troops on the other side of the border will increase the volatility of the region. Troops that have ostensibly been sent to peace keep in Somalia, could also help organise and support insurgent groups like Ogaden Liberation Front in Ethiopia. The group’s aim to separate Ethiopian Somali and establish a greater Somalia. In response to this, the Ethiopian government has indicated that Ethiopia will take appropriate measure against any kind of action by Egypt and Somalia which can affect Ethiopian national interest.
This is another potential security threat in the volatile Horn of African region which can ill afford more instability. The potential actions of Egypt and Somalia against Ethiopia and Ethiopian reaction for maintaining its national interest could further destabilise the volatile region of the Horn of Africa.
The international community should pay attention to this security issue to stop it escalating before it is too late.
Photo credit: United Nations Photo used with permission CC BY-NC-ND 2.0