Deteriorating relations between Niger and Nigeria threaten to undermine efforts to address a host of regional challenges, writes Abubakar Abubakar Usman.

West Africa is grappling with a wave of inter-state disputes that pose serious risks to the region’s security, diplomacy, and economic stability. A particularly pressing challenge is the growing rift between ECOWAS and three of its member states—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—all of which are now governed by military juntas. In January 2024, these countries formally announced their intention to withdraw from ECOWAS, a decision the organisation recently approved, granting a six-month grace period for the states to reconsider their exit.

Hopes for reconciliation took a sharp turn for the worse following an explosive interview by Niger’s military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, on GTR Hausa TV. In a move likely to deepen the divide, Tchiani accused Nigeria and Benin of colluding with France to destabilise Niger and sabotage its economy. He alleged that these countries, along with France, were working with terrorist groups to destroy Niger’s vital oil pipeline infrastructure. Tchiani even named the locations of the sabotage and named specific government officials allegedly involved.

These incendiary allegations have intensified an already volatile situation, casting significant doubt on the likelihood of repairing relations between ECOWAS and the Sahel Alliance states (Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Chad). The timing of the accusations is particularly notable, coming shortly after Nigeria and France signed a series of agreements during President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s official state visit in late November 2024. These agreements reportedly focused on infrastructure development, renewable energy, transportation, agriculture, healthcare, food security, and solid minerals.

In response to General Tchiani’s allegations, Nigeria’s Minister of Defense, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, and National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, have categorically dismissed the claims as baseless. For these accusations and counteraccusations to carry weight, concrete evidence must be presented.

This situation, however, raises critical questions: What motives lie behind these allegations at this juncture? And what broader implications could these claims have for regional security, economic cooperation, diplomacy, and governance in West Africa? It also invites reflection on the steps that both nations—and ECOWAS collectively—should take to address these escalating tensions.

Behind the curtain

In such scenarios, understanding the motives behind such public statements is crucial. Despite their strained relations, Niger and Nigeria still maintain diplomatic ties, including operational embassies. This begs the question of why General Tchiani chose to make sensitive allegations with significant regional implications in a media interview, bypassing established diplomatic norms? In his interview, Tchiani claimed that Niger initially attempted to coordinate with Nigeria after uncovering France’s alleged sabotage plans, only to later discover Nigeria’s purported involvement.

Among the Sahel Alliance members, Niger’s junta has consistently displayed an uncompromising and confrontational approach, especially in its interactions with ECOWAS and Nigeria. This posture raises the likelihood that such inflammatory rhetoric serves multiple purposes: to justify its withdrawal from ECOWAS, heighten perceptions of external threats to securitise the political landscape, and consolidate its grip on power. The junta’s reluctance to establish a clear timeline for transitioning back to civilian rule further underscores its apparent intent to prolong its authority.

Whether or not the allegations hold merit, General Tchiani’s choice of venue and method for airing them suggests a calculated effort to foster a siege mentality—seeking to rally domestic support and solidify the junta’s grip on power.

The move is likely to have significant ramifications, particularly for Nigeria’s President Tinubu. In northern Nigeria, where there are strong cultural, linguistic, and religious ties with Niger, such allegations could potentially harm Tinubu’s credibility and complicate his domestic standing.

Beyond political optics, these accusations could have severe consequences for regional security and cooperation. With Niger and Nigeria sharing a 1,608-kilometer border and facing mutual threats like terrorism and banditry, trust between the two nations is now at an all-time low. This erosion of relations threatens joint security operations, border management, and other strategic collaborations critical for combating shared threats.

The allegations are likely to have economic and trade implications. Due to their common borders, history, culture, religion and language, the two have economic ties, particularly in the informal sector that are hard to quantify. Some border communities are divided between the two nations, one part in Nigeria and the other in Niger. Nigeria is also the source of electricity for Niger following an agreement the two reached regarding River Niger back in the 1960s. All these economic ties were badly affected when ECOWAS imposed sanctions on Niger after the coup before the sanctions were eventually lifted. And if the ongoing spat continues, there will be more negative effects on these aspects.

ECOWAS has maintained its desire for the Sahel Alliance states to remain within the organisation. Although it approved their withdrawal request on 14 December 2024 the alliance members were granted a six-month grace period to reconsider their decision. However, during his interview, General Tchiani referred to ECOWAS as a “puppet of Western colonial countries,” signalling a slim likelihood of reconciliation or continued membership.

The severed relationships between Nigeria and Niger (and more broadly ECOWAS and the Sahel Alliance members) threaten to undermine collective efforts to address transborder terrorism, organised crime, and the need for coordinated policies in sectors like security, trade, energy and transportation, potentially destabilising the region further and diminishing the effectiveness of shared governance structures.

Both Niger and Nigeria must recognise that no international dispute has ever been effectively resolved through public accusations or media spats. To restore their relationship and address their differences, both nations must prioritise proper diplomatic channels and adhere to established norms of international dialogue. Engaging in further public confrontations will only serve to heighten tensions and deepen mistrust between the two neighbours.

By leveraging peaceful mechanisms, Niger and Nigeria have an opportunity to de-escalate tensions and work collaboratively toward a mutually beneficial resolution. The stakes are too high, not just for the two nations but for the entire region, to allow discord to overshadow constructive dialogue.

Photo credit: Free Malaysia Today