China is spending more on its military than ever before and is using that newfound power to exert influence in Africa, writes Isaac Nunoo.

China’s economic boom has transformed its military force. It can now rub shoulders with traditional great powers like the US and Russia. Beijing now has an increased military and economic presence in Africa, where it has invested heavily and shares a trade volume of a record £230 billion in 2023.

As China’s economy grows, its security apparatuses have also witnessed significant expansion and modernisation. As observed by Eswar Prasad, formerly the top China specialist at the International Monetary Fund, “They [Beijing] do intend to become very dominant in the region,’ and ‘They see economic, political and military issues as all intertwined in terms of trying to obtain their longer-term objectives.”

Since the commencement of China’s ‘opening policy,’ its economy has witnessed tremendous hikes and currently ranks second in the world. The Economist predicted in 2012 the possibility of the Chinese defence expenditure outrunning that of the US after 2035 if current trends persisted. It has also shown a strong motivation to establish a foothold in Africa where great powers have historically scrambled for resources. China does not only transfer military technology, and engage in military drills on the continent, it has established its first overseas military base on the continent.

China is positioning itself as a country that can combine military and economic expansion. It now projects power and influence beyond its region through its military and economic engagements and Africa has become its litmus test. Africa hosts the largest deployed People’s Liberation Army (PLA) force beyond China’s borders. China champions multilateral forums such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and the China-Africa Peace and Security Forum. It is also garnering influence with military and nonmilitary regimes in Africa via long-term professional military education programmes. Since 2000, African military officers have been educated in China. Around 500 officers have been trained at PLA Naval Medical University. Akin to this is the training of approximately 2000 police and law enforcement personnel from Africa at the People’s Armed Police (PAP) schools between 2018 and 2021.

Increased spending

Chinese real output has increased progressively since 1988, ‘from less than $750 billion in 1989 to over $8500 billion in 2013’. Its economic growth has spurred China’s military expenses, which surged around the same time: from £15 to £139 billion in 2013.

Data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, suggest Beijing has increased its defence spending nearly fivefold over the last two decades hopping from £53 billion in 2003 to £251 billion in 2023. China has overtaken Japan as the largest spender on defence in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s expenditure on defence in 2023 eclipsed ‘the next 22 Indo-Specific economies combined.’

As part of the PLA’s strategy in Africa and China’s geostrategic vision, China has conducted military drills with Mozambique and Tanzania. This marks a momentous expansion of the PLA’s relationship with Africa. The exercise which was dubbed the ‘Peace Unity-2024’ demonstrated the PLA’s increasing capability ‘to project infantry, armour, artillery, and support units across vast distances’.

China’s military diplomacy in Africa

China has adopted military diplomacy to project its influence globally. This has led to the establishment of military stations and pacts with some African countries. Military diplomacy simply refers to all diplomatic efforts involving ‘national security’ and ‘military diplomatic’ actions. China started asserting its military footmark in Africa in the 1990s, mainly through the UN peacekeeping missions. The transformation began in the 2000s with Sudan and Darfur, which harbour significant investments of Chinese oil companies. Subsequently, amity and security, and particularly ‘peacekeeping,’ featured significantly in the Forum on China – Africa Cooperation documents and agreements.

China has intensified its bilateral military engagement in Africa, and is now ‘the third-largest provider of small arms to Africa.’ There has been an increase in Chinese presence in the private security sector, where the PLA personnel are rehatted as private security officers to defend Beijing’s ‘commercial interests.’ The African maritime security sector has also seen an increase in China’s navy contributions, commencing with the global naval patrols to ward off Somali pirates in 2008. China has stepped up its backing for the African Union’s peacekeeping and peacebuilding exertions.

China-Djibouti military base

Beijing seems to have entered a new era not confined by its classical ‘hands-off’ principle of non-interference in other states’ internal affairs to a period where manipulating or even employing hard power, is no more considered a sacrilege. For instance, China established a military base in Djibouti in 2017. Djibouti is a model of stability in a highly volatile region. The country’s proximity to unstable regions in Africa and the Middle East gives it leverage over others as an important site of stations for the great powers. The region is not only plagued by political instability, but also piracy, drug trafficking, terrorism, and militancy. Somalia, to the southeast, for example, has seen all sorts of political and security unrest, with global ramifications.

Chinese officials claim that ‘The Djibouti base has nothing to do with an arms race or military expansion, and China has no intention of turning the logistics centre into a military foothold.’ They argue that during UN operations, their officers encounter herculean tasks in terms of escorting, providing food and fuel, however, Djibouti often served as a central pillar where logistical support had been offered on numerous occasions.

Some view China’s security manoeuvres following its economic agility as a move geared toward maximising internal security rather than for global aspiration. Offensive realists, however, assert that states have the propensity to seek expansionism as conterminous with their power and influence. Global Fire Power ranked China second in military spending in 2018; it is among the top three major submarine powers and ranks third in global military strength. China’s Ministry of Defence makes it clear that:

‘The Chinese economy has grown rapidly, laying a solid material foundation for consolidating national defence and strengthening the military.’ Thus, sounding more realistic, both realists and Chinese leaders, at least, appreciate a reflex of economic-military expenditure relations.

Africa has become a major ground for China’s attempt to show to the world its economic-induced modernised and expanded security systems, projecting power and influence beyond its region. It is also an attempt to defend the legitimacy of the communist leadership largely and balance against America and other great powers’ impact across the region. However, what is problematic to forecast is whether China will be an offensive rising power or an ambitious but disciplined great power.

The blog is based on a journal article by the author: China’s economic boom and military advancement: realist perspective of the Dragon’s global power and presence in Africa.

Photo credit: Digi_shot used with permission CC BY-NC-ND 2.0