China and Egypt have conducted their inaugural joint air exercises: “Civilization Eagle 2025”. Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah and Christian Kaunert ask if it is an attempt to counterbalance US military prestige in North Africa.

Between 19 April and 4 May 2025, China and Egypt conducted their first-ever joint air exercises, “Civilization Eagle 2025,” at Egypt’s Wadi Abu Rish Air Base. This marks a significant step in China’s military diplomacy in North Africa. China’s Ministry of National Defence described the exercises as a means to “promote practical cooperation and enhance mutual trust.”

For China, it represents an opportunity to project power 6,000 kilometres from its borders and test the People’s Liberation Army Air Force in a new operational environment.

For Egypt, the exercise offers a chance to benchmark its air force against a rising global power and enhance its strategic autonomy by diversifying its defence partnerships beyond the US. The exercises included mission planning, air combat simulations, and training in areas like aerial refuelling and battlefield search and rescue. These activities not only fostered interoperability but also allowed both nations to exchange tactical expertise.

Challenging US military prestige

The US has long viewed Egypt as a cornerstone of its Middle East and North African strategy. This was cemented by the 1979 Camp David Accords and sustained through approximately £1 billion in annual military aid. This money has equipped Egypt with F-16 fighters, Apache helicopters, and M1 Abrams tanks, reinforcing US military prestige in the region by showcasing its ability to supply cutting-edge technology to key allies. However, restrictions on advanced weaponry, such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles for Egypt’s F-16s or the MBDA Meteor missiles for its Rafales fighter jets, have frustrated Cairo.

These restrictions stem from the US foreign policy and legal commitments, which prioritise Israel’s security by ensuring its technological and military superiority over neighbouring states. This has annoyed Cairo. “Civilization Eagle 2025” capitalises on this discontent, positioning China as a viable alternative partner.

The exercise sends a clear message to Washington: Egypt is diversifying its alliances and is not beholden to US patronage. As one op-ed in Daily News Egypt stated, the drills were “a declaration of sovereignty,” signalling Cairo’s refusal to remain a “second-tier ally.” By hosting Chinese warplanes near the Israeli border, approximately 100 kilometres west of the Gulf of Suez, Egypt underscores its strategic flexibility.

China’s approach contrasts sharply with US policy. Unlike Washington, which often ties arms sales to human rights or political reforms, Beijing offers advanced systems at lower costs with fewer conditions. This “soft military power” resonates with Egypt, which is seeking to modernise its air force while navigating regional instability in Sudan, Libya, and the Red Sea.

The exercise also highlights China’s growing ability to operate in North Africa, a region where the US has scaled back its presence. There are ongoing discussions to subordinate the US Africa Command to the US European Command under the Trump administration.

Geopolitical implications

“Civilization Eagle 2025” is emblematic of a shifting geopolitical landscape in North Africa. China’s expanding military footprint, bolstered by its Belt and Road Initiative and a naval base in Djibouti, positions it as a counterweight to US influence. Egypt’s strategic location, with access to the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Suez Canal, makes it an ideal partner for Beijing to secure maritime routes critical to its energy imports. This hot on the heels of  Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge in September 2024 to increase China’s military support for the African continent with funding amounting to approximately £38 billion over the next three years.

For the US, the exercise raises concerns about eroding influence among traditional allies. Egypt’s frustration with US restrictions, coupled with Washington’s inward focus under President Trump, creates a vacuum that China is eager to fill. The presence of Chinese jets buzzing the pyramids, as noted in social media posts, is a potent symbol of Beijing’s inroads into a US-aligned nation.

Limitations and risks

Despite its significance, “Civilization Eagle 2025” has limitations. China’s military technology, while advanced, remains unproven in combat, unlike US systems that have been tested in conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan. Egyptian pilots, accustomed to Western platforms, may find integration with Chinese systems challenging, particularly given differences in training and maintenance protocols. Egypt is unlikely to abandon its US partnership entirely, given the scale of American military aid per year and the strategic importance of the Camp David framework.

The exercise also carries risks for both nations. For Egypt, deepening ties with China could strain relations with the US, potentially jeopardising military aid. For China, overextending its military presence in a volatile region risks entanglement in local conflicts, a departure from its traditionally cautious Middle East policy. The opacity surrounding the exercise, typical of Chinese military engagements, may also fuel speculation and mistrust among regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Going forward

The “Civilization Eagle 2025” exercise sets a precedent for deeper China-Egypt military cooperation and signals a long-term challenge to US dominance in North Africa. For China, the successful execution of the drills validates its ability to project air power globally, likely encouraging further joint exercises with other African and Middle Eastern nations. This could lead to an expansion of China’s defence exports. Beijing’s condition-free approach to arms sales and military partnerships will continue to appeal to nations frustrated by US restrictions, potentially reshaping defence markets in the region.

For Egypt, the exercise strengthens its leverage in negotiations with the US, signalling that Cairo has alternatives if Washington continues to impose limits on advanced weaponry. This could pressure the US to relax restrictions or offer more advanced systems, such as fifth-generation fighters, to maintain its influence.

Regionally, the exercise may prompt other North African states to explore similar partnerships with China, particularly those with strained US ties, such as Algeria. This could lead to a broader Chinese military presence, potentially including joint exercises or basing rights, challenging NATO and US operations in the Mediterranean and Red Sea.

Globally, “Civilization Eagle 2025” underscores the emergence of a multipolar security order. As China expands its military diplomacy, it will increasingly compete with the US for influence in strategic regions like North Africa. The US may respond by reinforcing its commitments to allies like Egypt through increased aid or fewer restrictions, but its inward focus under President Trump and budget constraints could limit its ability to counter China’s agile diplomacy. Ultimately, the exercise marks a shift toward a more contested North Africa, where China’s pragmatic partnerships challenge the US’s traditional hegemony, setting the stage for a complex and dynamic geopolitical rivalry.

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