Decades from now a new generation will look back with stunned disbelief at the chaos that has unfolded with Brexit, writes Gordon Brown. A day away from our most important Parliamentary votes and with only around 400 hours to go until Brexit, the logic of extending Article 50 is now inescapable if we are to avoid an economic cliff-edge on March 29 and prevent an impending national political disaster.
As the Avvaz petition signed in only a day or two by more than 55,000 people illustrates, more and more members of the general public and more and more businesses, trade unions and community leaders – including the former Prime Minister, John Major – are pleading with Parliament to vote for the extension of Article 50 on Thursday.
It is hardly surprising because, disturbingly, jobs are already being lost and money is leaving the country. We have to take seriously one report today that 275 firms – banks, asset managers and insurers – have already moved nearly £1 trillion of their assets out of the UK to other European countries. Sadly this capital flight is the shape of things to come – only a pre-Brexit foretaste of the jobs that will be lost, the businesses transferred and the investments cut.
And despite being utterly fed up with the never-ending rows over Brexit, a clear majority of the public reject no deal, the May deal or even a customs union or Norway style deal.
Parliament has, to my regret, proved incapable of resolving Brexit, causing a mounting distrust between Parliament and the people, and entrenching the bitterness that is dividing us as a country. I believe there is now no exit deal that MPs could agree in the next few days that will be acceptable to the country.
In fact, more favour an extension of the negotiating period than favour any of the deals on offer. And there are very good reasons why: our country is being ill-served by an ill-thought-out Brexit that is leaving not just the country desperately ill at ease, but the economy drastically ill-prepared
So ill-prepared is the economy that if we go ahead on March 29 there is not only business uncertainty, but public confusion – and yet nothing has been solved. There is still no Cabinet agreement on our final destination – whether it is to be similar to Canada’s deal with the EU, or like Switzerland’s or like Norway’s or on WTO terms. As each day passes, reuniting an ever more divided country becomes ever more difficult.
We are so ill-prepared politically that it is practically impossible to pass six Acts of Parliament and 600 statutory instruments by March 29 and in time for Europe to agree the final go ahead.
Last week, I returned from a visit to mainland Europe where I found leaders agree with their chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, that an extension, has ‘become almost inevitable’ and that they have to overcome the technical difficulties of British participation in the European elections and ensure an extension substantially longer than three months.
And if MPs vote on Thursday to extend Article 50, they should do so for around a year, not as a delaying tactic, nor just for MPs to rerun the old arguments within the Westminster bubble, but for a positive purpose: to allow Parliament to reflect and listen to the British people. The harsh truth is that the Brexit problem cannot be solved without consulting the British people on the detailed options.
I suggest a series of region-by-region public hearings on the specifics of the current proposals and alternatives to them. They should be conducted on the model of the recent and successful Irish citizens’ assemblies – representative groups brought together – and in televised events. They should learn from the grand débat launched in France by President Macron. Such hearings would allow us to clear the air on the vexed questions of immigration and sovereignty, but explore the advantages and disadvantages of each of the options on offer, including a renegotiation, with the people having the final say. It is not too late to give the people of this country a greater role – and some pride and some hope.
This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Brexit blog, nor the LSE. It also appeared on The Dahrendorf Forum.
Gordon Brown served as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2007 to 2010.
If Brown hadn’t reneged on New Labour’s promise of UK vote on Lisbon treaty we probably wouldn’t be in this position.
We certainly don’t need lectures from someone with his baggage
It’s an interesting proposal, but I don’t think it would actually bring us any closer to a solution. Remember that the Brexit referendum of 2016 was going to settle the question of EU membership, but it only succeeded into polarising the whole country. “Such hearings would allow us to clear the air on the vexed questions of immigration and sovereignty”. Would they? I haven’t watched Question Time lately but can one really say that televised debates are clearing the air on immigration and sovereignty, or would a second referendum avoid a repeat of the infamous UKIP “Breaking Point” poster?
“They should be conducted on the model of the recent and successful Irish citizens’ assemblies” These have not been around for long. I suppose the most famous example is the one on abortion. But is there any reason to believe that the citizens’ assembly on the abortion question (8th amendment) cleared the air at all?
Another one trying to pull the wool over people’s eyes. The country is divided alright. How many Remainers are Remoaners? The division is between the people who support democracy and the people who don’t. The media and almost all of Parliament are trying to give the impression that half the country doesn’t want Brexit, but the HoC is not game to call for another referendum. If that is because the MPs believe it would be unconstitutional and against the spirit and result of the 2016 referendum? Unlikely. The HoC has been most supportive of the two year theatrical performance by May and her kitchen sink Cabinet, playing along just fine.
Time and again some major or minor political or media figure pipes up and comes with a proposal: “Not to overturn Brexit”, oh no, just to delay if the WA vassalage deal cannot be pushed through.
May has had two and a half years to prepare the country for Leave. Except for some posturing, organising extra ferries, May has not divulged what she has done in that regard, other than in support of project fear.
One thing is certain, if the country descends into chaos we know who to blame.
The author here, a Mr Brown, has some bagage, it is alleged. Let’s not go into that. However, he brings no street cred with his ideas. What’s he done since selling all that gold cheap? Some politicians ought to not die, but fade away after their stint running the nation.
It was the Remainers post-referendum invention of Soft Brexit that got us into this mess. Mind you, a vote before you sheepishly signed the EU Constitution/Treaty of Lisbon might have helped.
I remember when Gordon Brown seened to sneak off to sign the Lisbon treaty, to widespread cries that “he is surrendering British sovereignty”. That’s when the EU should have started preparing for Brexit.
It’s no good having a member state that so despises the European project. Please leave. There’s no reason for an extension. Let’s get this over with.