Are firms moving investment abroad because of Brexit? Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson (LSE) use a ‘doppelganger method’ to estimate how foreign direct investment would have evolved without the vote for Brexit. They find a 12% increase in the number of new investments made by UK firms in EU countries, and an 11% fall in […]
Long read: Brexit uncertainty must not prevent strategic planning and longer-term economic re-orientation
Brexit is not a simple story of disruption. Policy-makers in the throes of Brexit should not forget another driver of structural economic transformation: the so-called ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’. Analysing the two drivers of labour market disruption together demonstrates the unique challenge of reconciling future planning with handling immediate shocks. Current uncertainties must not prevent strategic scenario planning and longer-term […]
UK households are already suffering the consequences of the vote (close to one week’s wages), and macroeconomic indicators are not looking good. It has become harder to look on the bright side of Brexit, writes Elsa Leromain (LSE). To minimise the economic costs of Brexit the UK should remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union, she argues.
An informal but important meeting […]
The world is amid a global trade war which currently shows no signs of dissipating. How could this global trade dispute affect Britain and the Brexit process? Josh De Lyon (LSE) argues that it is becoming increasingly clear that the UK is beginning to prioritise its future relationship with the EU, and that potential trade agreements with third countries appear […]
Britain imports a lot of dairy produce, nearly all of it from the EU. At home, the industry employs a large number of workers from the rest of the EU. Jan Bakker and Nikhil Datta (LSE) predict that dairy will become more expensive after Brexit. Even if Britons switch to UK-produced dairy, it will take some years for domestic […]
The Brexit debate is intense and continues to dominate the UK policy agenda. It concerns the entire population. Josh De Lyon, Elsa Leromain and Maria Molina-Domene (LSE) use Twitter data to characterise the online discussion. The data shows that politics is the core topic for Twitter users who post about Brexit. Interestingly, the overall sentiment around Brexit appears to […]
The full economic consequences of Brexit will not be realised for many years. But 21 months after the referendum, we can start to assess how the Brexit vote has impacted the British economy. Thomas Sampson (LSE’s CEP) summarises what we know so far.
Brexit is yet to happen, but the economic effects of voting to leave are already being felt. How is it possible for the […]
In this blog, Josh De Lyon (LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance) discusses some of the concerns with the economic forecasts of the effects of Brexit and suggests that the available reports are informative of the likely consequences of Brexit. He also provides an insight into how such research should be interpreted, beyond the headline-grabbing figures reported in the news.
On 29 January, a new government […]
John Van Reenen was disappointed but not surprised by the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Whilst his own research predicts serious economic and political damage in the case of Brexit, he thought a Leave vote was a real possibility ever since David Cameron committed to a referendum in 2013. As he leaves the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, he gives his verdict on the campaigns, […]