CEP

Voting for Brexit has already made the UK poorer

How has voting to leave the EU affected the UK’s economy? The difficulty in answering this question is that we do not know what would have happened to the economy if Remain had won. Consequently, researchers look for ways to estimate what would have happened. For example, how would the UK’s economic output have changed since June 2016 if […]

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    UK economy since the Brexit vote: slower GDP growth, lower productivity, and a weaker pound

UK economy since the Brexit vote: slower GDP growth, lower productivity, and a weaker pound

Evidence of the UK’s economic performance since the EU Referendum is clear: GDP growth has slowed down, productivity has suffered, the pound has depreciated and purchasing power has gone down, and investments have declined. In this blog, Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra (LSE Centre for Economic Performance) argue that the impact of the Brexit vote on the health of […]

Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

Are firms moving investment abroad because of Brexit? Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson (LSE) use a ‘doppelganger method’ to estimate how foreign direct investment would have evolved without the vote for Brexit. They find a 12% increase in the number of new investments made by UK firms in EU countries, and an 11% fall in […]

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    Long read: Brexit uncertainty must not prevent strategic planning and longer-term economic re-orientation

Long read: Brexit uncertainty must not prevent strategic planning and longer-term economic re-orientation

Brexit is not a simple story of disruption. Policy-makers in the throes of Brexit should not forget another driver of structural economic transformation: the so-called ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’. Analysing the two drivers of labour market disruption together demonstrates the unique challenge of reconciling future planning with handling immediate shocks. Current uncertainties must not prevent strategic scenario planning and longer-term […]

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    UK households are already suffering the consequences of the vote. The worst may be yet to come

UK households are already suffering the consequences of the vote. The worst may be yet to come

UK households are already suffering the consequences of the vote (close to one week’s wages), and macroeconomic indicators are not looking good. It has become harder to look on the bright side of Brexit, writes Elsa Leromain (LSE). To minimise the economic costs of Brexit the UK should remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union, she argues. 

An informal but important meeting […]

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    A global trade war is one more reason for the UK to prioritise its future relationship with the EU

A global trade war is one more reason for the UK to prioritise its future relationship with the EU

The world is amid a global trade war which currently shows no signs of dissipating. How could this global trade dispute affect Britain and the Brexit process? Josh De Lyon (LSE) argues that it is becoming increasingly clear that the UK is beginning to prioritise its future relationship with the EU, and that potential trade agreements with third countries appear […]

Hard cheese? Dairy products will be more expensive after Brexit

Britain imports a lot of dairy produce, nearly all of it from the EU. At home, the industry employs a large number of workers from the rest of the EU. Jan Bakker and Nikhil Datta (LSE) predict that dairy will become more expensive after Brexit. Even if Britons switch to UK-produced dairy, it will take some years for domestic […]

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    Brexit is still a hot topic on Twitter, but public sentiments remain largely unchanged

Brexit is still a hot topic on Twitter, but public sentiments remain largely unchanged

The Brexit debate is intense and continues to dominate the UK policy agenda. It concerns the entire population. Josh De Lyon, Elsa Leromain and Maria Molina-Domene (LSE) use Twitter data to characterise the online discussion. The data shows that politics is the core topic for Twitter users who post about Brexit. Interestingly, the overall sentiment around Brexit appears to […]

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    Britain is already paying a price for voting to leave the EU

Britain is already paying a price for voting to leave the EU

The full economic consequences of Brexit will not be realised for many years. But 21 months after the referendum, we can start to assess how the Brexit vote has impacted the British economy. Thomas Sampson (LSE’s CEP) summarises what we know so far.

Brexit is yet to happen, but the economic effects of voting to leave are already being felt. How is it possible for the […]

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    How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?

How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?

In this blog, Josh De Lyon (LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance) discusses some of the concerns with the economic forecasts of the effects of Brexit and suggests that the available reports are informative of the likely consequences of Brexit. He also provides an insight into how such research should be interpreted, beyond the headline-grabbing figures reported in the news.

On 29 January, a new government […]