Economics of Brexit

What are the economic consequences of May’s deal – and of no deal?

What will the economic impact of Theresa May’s deal be? And how does it compare to the no-deal scenario? The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, in association with The UK in a Changing Europe, has modelled both scenarios and examined the effects on migration, fiscal policy, trade and productivity. The authors – Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes  (King’s College London), […]

Trading in higher education with the EU will not be easy post-Brexit

Universities occupy a complicated position in the post-Brexit landscape. Howard Davies says that rolling over existing arrangements, as the government is confident of doing, will not be easy or automatic. The future is unclear and he advises caution.

Anne Corbett (University World News 528 and LSE Brexit) is right to point to the UK’s intention to build higher education service provision into […]

There’s no ‘Left Brexit’ – the EU enhances our sovereignty in building a just society

Three main claims made by advocates of ‘Lexit’ – a ‘Left Brexit’ – are that the EU prevents the UK from ‘wholesale state intervention in the economy’, the EU is bad for workers’ rights, and that it cannot be reformed. All three claims are mistaken, argues Ewan McGaughey (King’s College London), because the EU supports any system of property ownership, […]

Staying in the EU would not be perfect. But it’s the best deal on offer

Is it time for Parliament to compromise and vote through May’s Brexit deal? Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE) argues that ‘no deal’ is not the only viable alternative to a deeply flawed deal. Yes, a second referendum would divide the country – but it is already divided. People are now in a better position to understand the choices on offer and […]

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    Cultural, administrative, and economic proximity between the UK and Canada should be good for trade

Cultural, administrative, and economic proximity between the UK and Canada should be good for trade

Economists place considerable emphasis on the role of (geographic) distance in explaining the pattern of international trading relationships. Using a metaphor from Newtonian physics, trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) between countries are often seen as being driven by the forces of gravity, encapsulated in the relative size of their markets and the distance between their economies. Moreover, as […]

How EU migrants have propped up Britain’s social care

Last week NIESR published new research for the Cavendish Coalition on the implications of Brexit for the health and social care sector.  Their conclusions are stark:  Brexit is likely to lead to a substantial shortfall in nurses and doctors which needs to be urgently addressed by new immigration policy, writes Heather Rolfe (NIESR). However, while the implications of any future immigration […]

Brexit has already hurt EU and non-EU exports by up to 13% – new research

Over the past few months, Terence Huw Edwards (Loughborough University, left), Christian Soegaard (Warwick University) and Mustapha Douch (Aston University) have been investigating how the vote of June 23 2016 has since affected the values and patterns of Britain’s trade with major trading partners inside and outside the European Union. By comparing trade flows with a model of what […]

Universities are a bargaining chip in the Brexit free-trade future

Higher education – although clearly not a government priority – is becoming a bargaining chip as the UK considers its future outside the EU. Anne Corbett (LSE) examines the May government’s proposal to treat higher education as a sweetener for free trade deals, an idea that is likely to have life in it whatever the immediate Brexit outcome.

Spare a thought […]

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    London Calling Brexit: The City of London and the ‘baptist-bootlegger’ coalition

London Calling Brexit: The City of London and the ‘baptist-bootlegger’ coalition

Think of London and Brexit and most will think of what it means for ‘the City’, the heart of the UK’s financial services industry. In this, the second in our London Calling Brexit series, Scott James (King’s College London) and Lucia Quaglia (University of Bologna) examine why London’s financial institutions have failed to wield the influence over Brexit that […]

The effect on foreign multinationals: an under-explored aspect of Brexit

While most of the studies on Brexit have focused on its trade effects, very few have analysed the likely impact on foreign multinationals. Claudia Fernández-Pacheco Theurer (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid), Jose Luis López Ruiz and María C. Latorre (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, left) argue that this is an important omission. They show how data on trade and foreign multinationals affiliates’ sales underlines […]