Monetary policy has been unprecedentedly very accommodating in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) era, particularly in the developed economies. In the last few years, there has been a debate about the rolling back of some of the actions taken in the wake of the crisis, for which different terms and jargons have been invented, e.g. “exit-strategy” and/or “normalisation” of monetary policy. […]
There is a widespread belief that many of the problems that have recently plagued the EU steel industry can be resolved, or at least alleviated, by increased market concentration. Aligned with this conviction, many analysts and industry executives have positively welcomed the recent merger of the European operations of Germany’s ThyssenKrupp and India’s Tata Steel. The thinking goes that concentrating […]
The European Commission is increasing its pace towards completing the European Banking Union. A European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS) should be the Banking Union’s third pillar. Germans are very sceptical of EDIS, in part because Germany has never had a single deposit insurance scheme. Instead, cooperative banks, savings banks and private banks administer their own deposit insurance systems without […]
In a recent study, we investigate the role that culture and institutions play in creating gender differences in willingness to compete. We compare the competitiveness of women growing up in different periods in the recent history of mainland China and Taiwan. We find that women in Beijing who grew up during the communist regime, when gender equality was emphasised, […]
Fixed income markets are very large. As of 31 December, 2016 there were over $12 trillion of outstanding corporate debt from companies in developed markets. Yet, despite the size of this asset class, little research has explored the role of fundamental analysis in the context of credit markets.
Default risk, i.e., the risk that a debt issuer will not make […]
How to be a Geek: Essays on the Culture of Software. Matthew Fuller. Polity Press. 2017.
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Software is eating the world more than ever before, and we’re all facing the consequences. Airbnb is raising house prices in cities around the world; Uber and Deliveroo are preying on a pool of un- and under-employed workers to create precarious […]
The UK’s financial regulator has recently reviewed the offerings of the ‘robo-advice’ sector. The results, whilst superficially not encouraging, suggest teething problems rather than deeper underlying issues. In the report released in May, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) noted that online discretionary investment managers were not communicating risk in a clear way, lacking transparency on pricing and failing to […]
Has the rise and consolidation of ‘big box’ retailers, such as Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour, undermined the ability of suppliers, especially small ones, to earn sizeable profits? Are small suppliers that bargain with these giants doomed to earn a meagre share of the ‘channel surplus’ – the difference between retail revenues and variable production costs?
While the answer to these […]
News, Numbers and Public Opinion in a Data-Driven World. An Nguyen (ed.). Bloomsbury. 2018.
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In 1954, Darrell Huff published How to Lie with Statistics, a tongue-in-cheek guide for those wanting to use numbers to deceive. The book, now widely distributed to first-year university statistics students, outlines how statistics can confuse and muddle both writers and readers. The […]
The recent IMF and World Bank Spring meetings with finance ministers and central bankers are one key forum where the IMF performs its mandated role as conduit of international economic co-ordination, and its self-appointed role as global arbiter of ‘sound’ economic policy. Christine Lagarde recently set out the IMF’s policy priorities, offering some pointed messages for European policy-makers about […]
Climate change is predicted to bring increased incidence of extreme weather events, rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and changing precipitation patterns. A growing body of literature suggests that the economic costs of climate change may be substantial and far-reaching, impacting agriculture, mortality, labour productivity, economic growth, civil conflict, and migration. Until recently, however, the literature has remained relatively silent […]
With the global economy stuck in a low growth trap, it is crucial to understand the factors behind the weak recovery in potential output growth, and particularly the barriers to productivity growth. In our recent research, we show that this dynamic can be partly understood in terms of the increasing survival of zombie firms – i.e. those firms that […]
Population ageing is one of the most important economic and social challenges in the twenty-first century. With increasing life expectancy and falling fertility, the populations of most countries are growing older. Large cohorts are being replaced by relatively smaller but better educated young cohorts, resulting in substantial shifts in the workforce and its age and education composition.
Although these demographic […]
After the bruising and contentious 2016 US presidential election and the subsequent controversies of President Donald Trump’s first year in office, it’s not surprising that Americans’ evaluations of members of the opposite political party have reached an all-time low. According to data from the Pew Research Center, 45 per cent of Republicans and 41 per cent of Democrats think the other party […]