As the results come in for the 2020 US presidential election, we will be compiling a selection of comments from European academics, journalists and other experts on this page. If you would like to have a short comment included, please email the Managing Editor at europpblog@lse.ac.uk
4 November
Nicholas Vinocur at Politico argues that regardless of the outcome of the election, Europe and the US are drifting apart in their approach to technology. From 5G security to Europe’s plans for digital taxes and the collapse of a transatlantic data protection agreement, the two sides have fundamentally different approaches and a Biden presidency would be unlikely to change this.
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The American people have spoken. While we wait for the election result, the EU remains ready to continue building a strong transatlantic partnership, based on our shared values and history.
— Josep Borrell Fontelles (@JosepBorrellF) November 4, 2020
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This election continues to be a stresstest for American democracy, much more so than Bush v. Gore in 2000. I still want to believe in resilience of its democratic institutions, but am worried about the speech that we just heard from @realDonaldTrump. #Elections2020
— Alexander Stubb (@alexstubb) November 4, 2020
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Biden v Clinton vote share in MI, WI and PA for counties with >98% of expected votes cast. Looks like it's going to be a very tight finish… pic.twitter.com/WFMYvCcEhp
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 4, 2020
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Trump may go down, but it’s clear that Trumpism is massively popular. If US populism had a semi-competent leader, the outcome would have been dramatically different
— Simon Hix (@simonjhix) November 4, 2020
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BREAKING NEWS: Trump did what he has been suggesting and threatening for weeks.
— Florian Bieber (@fbieber) November 4, 2020
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Uri Dadush and Guntram B. Wolff at Bruegel have also previously looked at how the US election may affect US-EU trade relations. They argue that while a Biden win would be unlikely to herald a quick return to comprehensive trade talks with the European Union, there would be areas for EU/US cooperation, not least World Trade Organization reform.
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Had hoped so much for a clear result this morning.
— Guntram Wolff (@GuntramWolff) November 4, 2020
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Trump has declared victory before votes being counted. The worst case scenario and an impending crisis for American democracy
— Lionel Barber (@lionelbarber) November 4, 2020
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What I want to know is why, given we all knew Trump would do this, so many Dems voted by mail?
— Jonathan Hopkin (@jrhopkin) November 4, 2020
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What would a Biden win mean for US-EU trade policy? Sam Lowe at the Centre for European Reform argues that Europeans “should not kid themselves that Biden is a European in disguise. There will be plenty of transatlantic disagreements ahead; and Biden’s priority will be the interests of the US and its voters, not the promotion of freer transatlantic trade.”
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We have just 244 counties at 99%+ of expected vote reporting, but so far it seems that the education divide has increased even further: Trump is beating his 2016 margins in counties with a lower share of college-educated people, but doing worse in more educated counties. pic.twitter.com/cELvWnebz3
— Laura Bronner (@laurabronner) November 4, 2020
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Alongside the presidential elections and the elections to the House and Senate, several states have put proposals to legalise medical and recreational cannabis use on the ballot. The LSE’s USAPP blog previously ran an article on how US cannabis policy might change after today.
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Fabulous coverage of the 3 key states to watch by @NYTimes. All down to GA and NC. FL already gone to Trump. Finding this way too addictive #USElection2020 https://t.co/HurQLg0oy7
— Simon Hix (@simonjhix) November 4, 2020
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Davide Angelucci, Lorenzo De Sio, Morris P. Fiorina and Mark N. Franklin previously wrote for EUROPP on the challenges facing Donald Trump in his bid for re-election. Drawing on a recent survey, they identified a lack of divisive issues on which Trump could win more support from independents and Democrats than he stood to lose from his own support-base, while on issues for which goals are widely shared, Trump lacked credibility compared to Joe Biden.
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Here is another "if" on a night of "ifs". IF this does go Trump's way then it will be the biggest polling failure since newspapers mistakenly ran with the headline "Thomas Dewey beats Harry Truman" in 1948. Which was also before scientific polling.
— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) November 4, 2020
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Our colleagues at the LSE’s American Politics and Policy (USAPP) blog have been pulling an all-nighter to run a live blog on the election in association with the LSE US Centre.
Note: Featured image credit: Dave Lawler (CC BY-SA 2.0)
