On 15 April, a campaign to hold a referendum on the final terms of the Brexit deal was launched in the UK. But do the public want another vote? And have attitudes toward holding a second referendum really changed in recent months, as some pro-EU campaigners suggest? Sir John Curtice states that there is little reason to think support for a second referendum […]
Five minutes with John Curtice on Scottish independence: “We’ve had over 65 opinion polls now, and of all of those only one has ever put the Yes side ahead”
Polling and public opinion expert John Curtice recently spoke at an LSE event on the upcoming Scottish independence referendum. In an interview with Democratic Audit’s Sean Kippin, he discusses the prospect of a ‘Yes’ vote, the demographics at play in the election, and an independent Scotland’s political party make-up.
Looking at the upcoming Scottish independence referendum, do you feel the Yes camp can win?
The first obvious thing […]
Five minutes with John Curtice: “Almost undoubtedly if Cameron held an EU referendum following a successful renegotiation then the ‘stay in’ side would win”
Early last year, David Cameron proposed a new policy on the UK’s membership of the European Union, in which he would renegotiate a new settlement with his fellow European leaders and put the result to the British people in an in/out referendum, should his party emerge victorious at next year’s General Election. In an interview with Democratic Audit’s Sean […]
The ‘Yes’ side will only make progress if they can win the debate about the economics of Scottish independence
With eight months to go until Scotland’s independence referendum, John Curtice reviews the polls. He finds that most indicators continue to suggest that the verdict will be No. He also argues that although the debate will range far and wide in the coming months, the victory will ultimately go to the side that presents the most convincing economic argument. When […]
The state of the UK’s electoral battle: None of the parties are clearly on course for victory in the next general election
With party conference season under way in the UK, John Curtice looks at the latest polling data and examines the respective fortunes of the parties. For Labour, there can be little doubt that Ed Miliband’s continued failure to make a favourable impression is costing his party. For the coalition parties, polling suggests that the public have begun to become rather […]
If the Conservatives are to counter the challenge of UKIP, they need to turn around the economy rather than fret obsessively about Europe
John Curtice looks at evidence from recent opinion polls to examine the character and sources of support for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), and to consider how the challenge posed by UKIP might best be met by Britain’s mainstream parties. He finds that the party is sapping more support away from the Conservative Party than the other two main parties, […]