Michael S. Lewis-Beck

  • Permalink Gallery

    A political economy forecast of Ireland’s 2020 general election: Will the government lose fewer seats than expected?

A political economy forecast of Ireland’s 2020 general election: Will the government lose fewer seats than expected?

Irish voters will go to the polls today for a general election. Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Stephen Quinlan outline a new forecast model which suggests that Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael will lose seats, but perhaps fewer than opinion polls currently suggest.

Irish voters head to the ballot box today. According to recent national opinion polls, we are on the cusp of a seismic shift, […]

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Although Austria’s grand coalition will continue, the dominance of the country’s two major parties may be nearing its end

Austria held parliamentary elections on 29 September. Sylvia Kritzinger and Eva Zeglovits assess the election results, which saw the country’s two major parties, the SPÖ and ÖVP, maintain a narrow majority. They write that while the results mean the incumbent grand coalition will likely continue, the real story is the growing vote share for smaller parties which may lead to […]

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Left-wing parties in Western Europe gain votes when unemployment rises, but only when they are in opposition.

How does a rise in unemployment affect support for left-wing parties? As Ruth Dassonneville and Michael S. Lewis-Beck write, left-wing parties might be expected to gain support during periods of rising unemployment as they effectively ‘own’ the issue in the eyes of the electorate. However, this effect may be complicated when left-wing parties are in government, as incumbent parties tend […]

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share