Nils Hernborg

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    The battle for Europe’s future: The next European Parliament will be more fragmented independently of Brexit

The battle for Europe’s future: The next European Parliament will be more fragmented independently of Brexit

This week’s European Parliament elections are a battle for Europe’s future. In this blog, Thierry Chopin, Nicolò Fraccaroli, Nils Hernborg and Jean-Francois Jamet examine the evolution of political cleavages ahead of the vote and the potential impact of Brexit on their result. They argue the next European Parliament will be more fragmented independently of Brexit.

Political cleavages – that is, the key dividing […]

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    European Parliament election projections may be underestimating support for Eurosceptic and Green parties

European Parliament election projections may be underestimating support for Eurosceptic and Green parties

Predicting the outcome of European Parliament elections is an exceptionally difficult task, not only because the vote covers multiple countries, but also because voters may vote differently to the way they would in national elections. Nicolò Fraccaroli and Nils Hernborg present a model that can compensate for deficiencies in European election polling, noting that current election projections could be […]

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