Oliver Heath

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    The myth of a classless Britain: the political marginalisation of the working class

The myth of a classless Britain: the political marginalisation of the working class

Drawing on a recent study, Oliver Heath presents an examination of class-based inequalities in turnout at British elections. These inequalities have substantially grown over time. The analysis suggests that the decline in proportion of elected representatives from working-class backgrounds is strongly associated with the rise of working-class abstention.
In recent years there has been a great deal of concern about declining […]

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    A tale of two countries: Brexit and the ‘left behind’ thesis

A tale of two countries: Brexit and the ‘left behind’ thesis

Why did Britain vote for Brexit and what was the relative importance of social class, age, and immigration in determining the result? Using aggregate level data, Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath outline some of the key factors that accounted for the overall Leave victory and the variation in support experienced across different geographic areas.

The referendum result is now well-known. Leave won […]

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    Why the UK’s pre-election polls got it so wrong: is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

Why the UK’s pre-election polls got it so wrong: is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

One of the key stories of the UK’s general election was the extent to which pre-election polling understated the true level of Conservative support in the electorate. Oliver Heath writes that while many of the lessons have been learned from the last major polling debacle in the UK in 1992, it may be time to take probability sampling more […]

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