Paul Whiteley

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    Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain […]

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    The division on the right of the UK’s party system is now the defining feature of electoral politics in Britain

The division on the right of the UK’s party system is now the defining feature of electoral politics in Britain

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) won its second seat in the UK’s parliament at a by-election on 20 November in the constituency of Rochester and Strood. Paul Whiteley writes that the victory gives the party national credibility ahead of the 2015 general election, and that a recent increase in the size of UKIP’s membership will improve their ability […]

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