Vuk Vukovic

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    New election prediction: Macron will win, but the race will be closer than opinion polls suggest

New election prediction: Macron will win, but the race will be closer than opinion polls suggest

Opinion polls suggest Emmanuel Macron will win the second round of the French presidential election, but given the surprise results in the UK’s Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election, how certain can we be of the result? Outlining findings from a new prediction model, Vuk Vukovic and Ilona Lahdelma discuss the precision of French pollsters in calling the first […]

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    How a small team of academics correctly predicted a Trump victory

How a small team of academics correctly predicted a Trump victory

Much like the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, few polling experts predicted Donald Trump would win the US presidential election. But this was not the case for all polling companies. Vuk Vukovic outlines a prediction model he developed with a small team of colleagues that proved remarkably accurate in calling the final result of the election and […]

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