Scotland’s ‘No’ vote solves one acute existential threat to the UK, says Patrick Dunleavy, but only for now. The likely narrow results of the May 2015 general election, plus David Cameron’s promise of another referendum on the UK leaving the European Union in 2017, both promise massive constitutional turbulence between now and 2020. For instance, if the UK votes […]
It is far from clear that Scotland’s transition to EU membership would be ‘smooth and straightforward’
One of the main issues in the Scottish independence campaign has been whether Scotland would be able to make a smooth transition to EU membership post-independence and what terms it would be obliged to meet to do so. Jo Murkens writes on the legal framework, noting that it is unlikely that using the EU’s Treaty revision procedure (Article 48 […]
The polls have been narrowing in Scotland’s independence referendum debate with the vote less than two weeks away. Alan Renwick reflects on whether the Yes campaign really could pull off an unexpected victory. He argues that while momentum is currently with the Yes side, the most likely result still remains a narrow No vote.
I wrote a piece for the […]
Scotland will hold an independence referendum on 18 September, but what would actually happen if voters opted to back independence from the UK? Norman Bonney assesses how the Scottish and UK governments would seek to negotiate Scotland’s independence, noting that the task would be far from straightforward.
If there is a majority of ‘Yes’ votes on 18 September 2014 in […]
Québec held independence referendums in 1980 and 1995, with voters opting to remain a part of Canada on both occasions. André Lecours assesses what lessons can be learned from Québec in the context of the referendum on Scottish independence due to be held on 18 September. He writes that while there are some striking similarities between the campaigns, there […]
While an independent Scotland would undoubtedly be able to join the EU, the timing and terms of membership remain uncertain
One of the most controversial arguments in the context of Scotland’s referendum on independence is the issue of whether an independent Scotland could make a seamless transition to EU membership and under what terms it would be able to join. Daniel Kenealy writes that while the issue has been the subject of bitter disagreements between the Yes and No […]
Five minutes with John Curtice on Scottish independence: “We’ve had over 65 opinion polls now, and of all of those only one has ever put the Yes side ahead”
Polling and public opinion expert John Curtice recently spoke at an LSE event on the upcoming Scottish independence referendum. In an interview with Democratic Audit’s Sean Kippin, he discusses the prospect of a ‘Yes’ vote, the demographics at play in the election, and an independent Scotland’s political party make-up.
Looking at the upcoming Scottish independence referendum, do you feel the Yes camp can win?
The first obvious thing […]