What will the economic impact of Theresa May’s deal be? And how does it compare to the no-deal scenario?The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, in association with The UK in a Changing Europe, has modelled both scenarios and examined the effects on migration, fiscal policy, trade and productivity. The authors – Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Peter Levell and Thomas Sampson – also look […]
Much has been made of the potential for a second referendum on Brexit, but have the British public changed their minds since 2016? Drawing on recent polling data, Thiemo Fetzer writes that there is an observable shift away from support for Brexit. This is happening along a key characteristic: how exposed a local authority district was to austerity in […]
Is it time for the British Parliament to compromise and vote through Theresa May’s Brexit deal? Dimitri Zenghelis argues that ‘no deal’ is not the only viable alternative to a deeply flawed deal. Yes, a second referendum would divide the country – but it is already divided. People are now in a better position to understand the choices on […]
Colonialism does connect Britain, the EU and Bosnia – but Britain is not being treated like a colony
The Conservative MEP, Daniel Hannan, responding to the withdrawal agreement reached between the UK government and the EU over Brexit, indicated that the deal could leave the UK facing colonial rule of the sort imposed on Bosnia following the Yugoslav war. Catherine Baker argues that there is indeed a connection between Brexit Britain and post-Dayton Bosnia, but it is […]
In principle, EU law still applies in the UK until the day the country formally leaves. However, as Arthur Dyevre writes, the UK’s impending exit may have already altered the application of EU law in British courts. Drawing on new research, he explains that UK courts have submitted substantially fewer questions to the Court of Justice of the European […]
The Brexit referendum and Trump’s election were each decided by a free and fair vote, yet large proportions of UK and US citizens have trouble accepting them as truly ‘democratic’. Brian Milstein writes that a working democracy requires more than free elections; it requires additional institutions, such as a well-functioning political public sphere and a responsive political party system, […]
Higher education, although clearly not a government priority, is becoming a bargaining chip as the UK considers its future outside the EU. Anne Corbett examines the UK government’s proposal to treat higher education as a sweetener for free trade deals, an idea that is likely to have life in it whatever the immediate Brexit outcome.
Spare a thought for second order policy sectors […]
Contrary to claims of Britain’s enduring political and constitutional distinctiveness, in the period from 1997 to 2016 the UK in fact modernised its polity by following several strong ‘Europeanisation’ trends. British democracy came to increasingly resemble other European liberal democracies in some fundamental ways. Yet now this meta-narrative may be lost following Brexit. Patrick Dunleavy explores some implications of […]
In a recent article, Peter J Verovsek criticised left-wing supporters of Brexit, claiming that they were backing a ‘statist, nationalist initiative’ that could only benefit the right. Peter Ramsay replies, arguing that it is left-wing Remainers who are stuck in the past and that a fetishism of the supranational and the cosmopolitan is the real problem for the left.
Peter Verovsek reminds […]
Brexit has been very divisive for the left in Britain. While some socialist intellectuals claim that it is a prize within reach for the Labour movement, it remains largely a neo-colonial project of a ‘Global Britain’, writes Peter J. Verovšek. He argues that the case for Lexit ignores the right-wing roots of the EU referendum, and that it will be no prize […]
Is there a bright side to Brexit, even for those who voted for the UK to remain in the EU? Nauro F Campos reasons that there is at least one undeniable positive from Brexit: we are now more willing to ask questions about European integration than we were before the referendum. In doing so, our knowledge about economic integration […]
If Britain ever sought to rejoin the EU, it could not be on the terms of membership the country previously enjoyed, warns Iain Begg. The UK’s budget rebate, exemption from Schengen and opt-outs from the euro and judicial cooperation will not be on the table again. This would make rejoining a difficult sell to the British public.
A curiosity of the […]
The Chequers deal is deeply flawed on both economic as well as political grounds and a ‘no deal’ Brexit would be a far preferable solution for the UK, argues Ruth Lea. In her opinion, a Chequers-style deal would be economically sub-optimal, tying the UK to the EU’s rulebook, but without any influence. On the contrary, in the event of a no deal Brexit, […]
All the available evidence suggests that Brexit will be chaotic and debilitating, but the answer is not necessarily to force a halt – unless it is the hard Brexit devotees themselves who are forced to do it, writes Conor Gearty. He explains that a sudden reversal of Brexit would become the new casus belli. Equally, the government’s current exit plan, […]
The two-year time limit stipulated in Article 50, argues Philip Allott, is wildly unrealistic: its drafters never anticipated that a large member state would ever leave the EU. In this legal opinion, he sets out how the ECJ could extend the withdrawal period, thereby allowing the UK to leave in an orderly fashion.
The UK’s scheduled withdrawal from the EU next […]
The UK’s coalition government, which entered power in 2010, adopted a policy of spending cuts in the aftermath of the financial crisis. As Thiemo Fetzer writes, the resulting ‘austerity shock’ had a clear political impact, with districts that received the average austerity shock seeing increased shares for UKIP compared to districts with little exposure to austerity. He argues that the tight […]
Mona Ali argues that the UK’s financial position is reflected in its ‘balance of payment’ dynamics. Here she compares the UK’s external balance sheets with those of the US, and explores the potential implications of Brexit for the country’s politico-economic future. She explains why Brexit is likely to leave the economy adrift for quite some time.
Few nations have been […]
What will a ‘no deal’ Brexit mean for road transport? Dmitry Grozoubinski explains that come 30 March 2019, UK firms may not be able to transport goods between European Union countries. This means that many British lorry drivers will not be able to work in the EU, and many UK firms will urgently need to become permanently established somewhere in the EU to operate across […]
In The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked its Way Out of the European Union, Steve Buckledee analyses and compares the linguistic features of both sides of the UK ‘Brexit’ debate, placing these discursive techniques in wider social and historical context. Combining an accessible writing style and thoughtful analyses, the book will help open up and advance the academic discussion of Brexit […]
Britain imports a lot of dairy produce, nearly all of it from the EU, while at home, the industry employs a large number of workers from the rest of the EU. Jan Bakker and Nikhil Datta predict that dairy will become more expensive after Brexit. Even if Britons switch to UK-produced dairy, it will take some years for domestic herds […]