All the available evidence suggests that Brexit will be chaotic and debilitating, but the answer is not necessarily to force a halt – unless it is the hard Brexit devotees themselves who are forced to do it, writes Conor Gearty. He explains that a sudden reversal of Brexit would become the new casus belli. Equally, the government’s current exit plan, […]
The two-year time limit stipulated in Article 50, argues Philip Allott, is wildly unrealistic: its drafters never anticipated that a large member state would ever leave the EU. In this legal opinion, he sets out how the ECJ could extend the withdrawal period, thereby allowing the UK to leave in an orderly fashion.
The UK’s scheduled withdrawal from the EU next […]
The UK’s coalition government, which entered power in 2010, adopted a policy of spending cuts in the aftermath of the financial crisis. As Thiemo Fetzer writes, the resulting ‘austerity shock’ had a clear political impact, with districts that received the average austerity shock seeing increased shares for UKIP compared to districts with little exposure to austerity. He argues that the tight […]
Mona Ali argues that the UK’s financial position is reflected in its ‘balance of payment’ dynamics. Here she compares the UK’s external balance sheets with those of the US, and explores the potential implications of Brexit for the country’s politico-economic future. She explains why Brexit is likely to leave the economy adrift for quite some time.
Few nations have been […]
What will a ‘no deal’ Brexit mean for road transport? Dmitry Grozoubinski explains that come 30 March 2019, UK firms may not be able to transport goods between European Union countries. This means that many British lorry drivers will not be able to work in the EU, and many UK firms will urgently need to become permanently established somewhere in the EU to operate across […]
In The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked its Way Out of the European Union, Steve Buckledee analyses and compares the linguistic features of both sides of the UK ‘Brexit’ debate, placing these discursive techniques in wider social and historical context. Combining an accessible writing style and thoughtful analyses, the book will help open up and advance the academic discussion of Brexit […]
Britain imports a lot of dairy produce, nearly all of it from the EU, while at home, the industry employs a large number of workers from the rest of the EU. Jan Bakker and Nikhil Datta predict that dairy will become more expensive after Brexit. Even if Britons switch to UK-produced dairy, it will take some years for domestic herds […]
A simple metaphor captures the dilemmas around Brexit: some want white, others want black. To state the blindingly obvious, the two are mutually exclusive. In this post, Iain Begg considers the two logically coherent positions on EU membership. It is hard to see how any in-between solution – any shade of grey – can prevail.
Leaving the EU means, well, Brexit […]
The UK government has proposed maintaining a ‘common rulebook’ with the European Union following Brexit, which would in principle prevent non-tariff trade barriers from developing. But if this proposal fails and the UK leaves without a deal, how would British manufacturers be affected? Robert Basedow draws lessons from the South Korean car industry, noting that manufacturers based outside of […]
Developments in London’s financial district help us understand the precise form that Brexit will take, argues Sarah Hall. She explains why London is distinct to the rest of the UK and writes that, as companies threaten to move to other European cities in anticipation of a ‘no deal’, the government’s decision making is still not reflecting the City’s strategic […]
The British government’s White Paper has been portrayed as an important step towards avoiding a ‘hard’ border in Ireland. However, as Jan van Zyl Smit writes, sustaining the rule of law in the Irish border region will depend on institutional co-operation.
By proposing a free trade area in goods with the EU, the UK Government White Paper published on Thursday 12 July 2018 has taken […]
The UK is set to leave the EU in March next year, but many of the key issues remain unresolved and there is now perceived to be a very real prospect of the country leaving without a deal in place. For Helmut K Anheier, the answer is not a second referendum given another vote would do little to resolve the […]
The EU has been popularly derided as ineffectual, but it has shown remarkable co-ordination and unity in its Brexit negotiations with the UK. Dermot Hodson and John Peterson explain how Michel Barnier has outflanked the UK, with both the Commission and the Council presenting a united front.
Before British voters went to the polls in June 2016, the institutions of the European Union […]
In a customs union, goods cross borders seamlessly, but in a free trade agreement, border checks are needed to ensure conformity with rules of origin. Paola Conconi explains why a customs union is key for multinationals wishing to stay in the UK after Brexit.
Some members of Theresa May’s cabinet are pushing for a ‘soft’ Brexit, which would allow the UK to remain […]
How does the rest of Europe see Brexit? In this extract from a Reuters Institute report, Alexandra Borchardt, Diego Bironzo and Felix M Simon examine what preoccupies the UK’s neighbours. They find trade and the economy have been central to the coverage, with Irish media focusing on the Northern Irish border issue, but there has been relatively little interest in […]
What impact will Brexit have on UK manufacturing? As Bob Hancké points out, the domestic economic effects of Brexit are dynamic, not static. While some industries will be devastated by Brexit, resources may switch to other areas which, in theory, could thrive. But for this to happen, the UK needs to revamp its industrial supply chains, which are dependent on close links […]
Book Review: Brexit and Beyond: Rethinking the Futures of Europe edited by Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger
In Brexit and Beyond: Rethinking the Futures of Europe, editors Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger bring together contributors to consider the possible implications of Brexit for the futures of Europe and the European Union. Available to download here, the book’s interdisciplinary approach makes clear the difficulties of predicting the potential outcomes of an unfolding process while nonetheless outlining a number of different scenarios and possibilities in […]
Britain has made numerous mistakes over Brexit, but the European Union’s record also needs to be analysed. Tim Oliver addresses some of the things the EU has been accused of getting wrong about Brexit. In this post, he looks at how the EU has misinterpreted Brexit.
Brexit has been a learning experience for all involved. British and EU negotiators have found […]
A number of things were wrong with the 2016 referendum, including the disenfranchisement of key stakeholders and the extent of misinformation by both sides. Given that referendums should be informed exercises in democratic decision-making, Bruce Ackerman and Sir Julian Le Grand explain what a referendum on the deal should look like.
We are moving to a world where the decisions […]
Mutually assured destruction? Understanding the UK and Ireland’s standoff over the Northern Irish border
Time is rapidly running out in the Brexit negotiations and there is still no agreement in sight on the issue of the Irish border. Gavin Barrett explains that despite the ultimatums emanating from each side, a no-deal Brexit would be catastrophic for both the UK and Ireland.
Tony Blair once famously compared then British Prime Minister David Cameron’s (badly miscalculated) […]