With 12 October marking 100 days since Kier Starmer entered 10 Downing Street, Tony Travers, Laura Serra and Michael Lerner give their verdict on the new government’s performance so far.
“A stumbling start compounded by ‘gift gate’ and dysfunction in Downing Street”
It is a long-held maxim of British politics that ‘Oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them’. Labour’s victory on 4 July was a clear confirmation of this wisdom. Labour and its leader were not particularly popular, according to opinion polls conducted during early 2024, but the Conservatives were exceptionally unpopular. To use another cliché about UK elections, people felt it was ‘time for a change’.
The seat change that took place, given the vote shares of Labour (33.7%) and the Conservatives (23.7%), was significantly disproportionate to Labour’s popularity. People knew they did not want the Conservatives but were not particularly keen on Labour. The first-past-the-post voting system generated the electoral curiosity of a party with just under 34% of the vote winning 63 per cent of the seats in Parliament.
Thus it has proved: after just over 100 days in power, the government is unpopular and appears rudderless. Labour was, of course, not as liked as its massive electoral triumph suggested. But the party has added to this unhelpful starting-point by being slow off the mark in shaping its outline of how it wants to govern Britain. The stumbling start has been compounded by out-of-control media coverage about gifts to senior members of the government and a dysfunctional Downing Street machine.
Massive weight is now attached to the Budget on October 30, both as a restart and as a roadmap for government. This reality puts the Chancellor in a position which is both powerful and risky. If she gets it right, Rachel Reeves will be personally credited with getting the government back on track. If little is seen to have changed, she will join Keir Starmer in getting the blame for the government’s unpopularity.
It is still early days for a party which has been out of power for over 14 years. But as the Conservatives attempt to pull themselves together under a new leader, Labour will need to offer more than simply not being the former government. Early mid-term local elections next May will be a big test for Labour.
Tony Travers is Professor in Practice in LSE Department of Government, Associate Dean of the LSE School of Public Policy and Director of LSE London. His key research interests include local and regional government, elections and public service reform.
“Labour’s relationship with young voters is far from being repaired”
The Labour party won the 2024 General Election by a landslide and yet a pervasive lack of enthusiasm, reflected in the steep fall in approval ratings since Starmer’s cabinet took office. Overall, it seems as though the main theme in this election was not so much change (the winning party’s motto), rather disaffection.
An aspect where Labour is increasingly struggling pertains to its relationship with young voters. The party has traditionally done well across the youth, but winning the 2024 election came at the expense of leaving behind a considerable number of young voters who did not feel represented by Starmer’s leadership, and particularly by the party’s stance on Israel’s war in the Middle East.
After a hundred days in government, it appears as though this relationship is far from being repaired. Recent polls suggest that Labour’s net favourability stands at 0 across voters aged under 25, and at -16 across voters aged 25-49. The only two parties who enjoy generally favourable views by these voters are the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
The growing preference for smaller parties was already hinted at in July, when the Greens and the Lib Dems both saw huge increases in youth support at the expense of Labour. But this occurred in a context of record-low youth turnout – recently estimated to have been as low as 37%.
Regaining the trust of these voters will be difficult without significant policies aligned with the interests of these cohorts – the fate of the EU youth mobility scheme will provide a first test of this. Motivating them to turn out at the next general election will be even more difficult without a serious conversation about the rules that govern the British electoral system. The motives behind low youth turnout are varied, but a system that hardly rewards their preferences is partly to blame. A ticket built on change can only be so successful when voters feel that what they fundamentally lack is choice.
Dr Laura Serra is a Postdoctoral Research Officer at the Electoral Psychology Observatory, a research unit within the LSE Department of Government. Laura’s research explores how voters’ characteristics, particularly age, and parties’ programmatic outlooks influence political attitudes and behaviours.
“Plenty of work remains, but Labour are making progress on climate policy”
When Labour entered government following the July 2024 General Election, the UK’s position as a climate leader was in peril. Less than 20% of announced emissions cuts were backed by credible policies, and delays and rollbacks made the Tory government’s promises ring hollow. Taking up a formidable agenda—consisting of some 65 key tasks—Labour’s policymakers aim to decarbonize the electricity grid by 2030, update the nation’s net-zero strategy, and relaunch the UK’s climate ambition.
The most significant progress has come thus far in the power sector. To meet newly revised 2030 targets for wind and solar, the Labour government accelerated the planning and approvals process, increased subsidies for renewable energy projects, and created new investment, advisory, and coordination bodies. The party also stuck by its campaign pledge to halt new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea, including walking away from the controversial Rosebank oil field.
However, the power sector is only 14% of UK emissions, behind buildings (20%) and transport (28%). Labour has taken only a handful of meaningful steps in these other sectors, most notably reinstating the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars and strengthening minimum energy efficiency standards for landlords. The government has rejected other, more aggressive steps, such as banning new gas boilers or halting the airport expansion, and remains frustratingly vague about its broader decarbonization plans. Instead, Labour’s leaders tend to emphasize headline-catching, if relatively minor, projects, such as carbon capture and storage.
While plenty of work remains and political distractions abound, Labour spent its first 100 days of climate governance largely focused on the quiet technical work of translating aspirational targets into concrete policies. If this continues, the UK may soon be back among the world’s climate leaders.
Michael Lerner is an assistant professor of public policy and administration in the LSE Department of Government. His research focuses primarily on policy advocacy, including corporate lobbying on climate change, transnational advocacy networks, and the innovation and diffusion of environmental policy.
Note: this article gives the views of the authors, and not the position of the LSE Department of Government, nor of the London School of Economics.