The defining characteristic of “scientific” journals classified as predatory is that they publish almost anything for a fee. The problem of predatory journals and publishers is neither recent nor geographically limited, but it affects the entire scientific spectrum (Nature, 2017a). J. Bohannon (Science, 2013) conducted an innovative experiment (at the time) that exposed the academically inappropriate practices of predatory journals. Posing as Ocorrafoo Cobange (a fake name) from the Wassee Institute of Medicine (a fake institute), he wrote a “scientific” article claiming miraculous anti-cancer properties for a chemical substance extracted from a symbiotic organism formed by fungi and algae (lichen). The “scientific” content of the article was so flawed that it should have been immediately rejected by any reviewer with basic knowledge of chemistry, as the experiments were egregiously wrong and the findings obviously meaningless.

Furthermore, to avoid doubts about the plausibility of the article, J.Bohannon collaborated with molecular biologists at Harvard University. One of his colleagues noted that the language quality might raise suspicions. Thus, Bohannon revised the article by translating it into French using Google Translate and then back into English, creating a version that displayed all the typical idiomatic expressions of a non-native English speaker. Having done that, by setting a number of criteria, J. Bohannon drew 304 open-access journals (which charge publication fees) from two sources: (i) the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) and (ii)Jeffrey Beall’s list of potentially and/or possibly predatory journals. Specifically, 167 journals were from the DOAJ list, 121 from Jeffrey Beall’s list, and 16 were identified as overlapping. Over a 10-month period, the article with the egregiously wrong experiments and the meaningless findings was submitted for publication in these journals.

The findings? Eye-opening! 82% of the journals indexed on Jeffrey Beall’s list accepted the article, demonstrating that the list is highly effective at identifying publishers and journals with inadequate or non-existent processes for evaluating submitted papers. Even more surprisingly, 45% of the journals indexed on the DOAJ list, which typically includes reputable journals, also accepted the article. Other experiments have produced comparable results (see, for example, Nature, 2017b).

Recent studies indicate that publications in journals of dubious quality (also referred to as predatory or semi-predatory journals) have increased significantly since the mid-2010s. It is estimated that more than 15,000predatory journals are currently active (PLOS ONE, 2023; The Conversation, 2023). Therefore, what is the diachronic penetration rate of publishing in predatory or semi-predatory journals within universities? As a case study, we focus on Greece. A brief search did not reveal estimates regarding the extent of the problem. As such, given the infiltration of such journals in to the Scopus bibliographic database (Scientometrics, 2021), which is extensively used for evaluating institutional research, a small-scale exercise was conducted. From a total of 24 universities in the country, two were randomly selected, and all their journal publications (articles or reviews) indexed in Scopus from 2012 to 2023 were retrieved. After excluding editorials, conference proceedings, book chapters, etc., we ended up with nearly 7,000journal publications for both universities in total (data export:12/7/2024). Then, Jeffrey Beall’s list of potentially and/or possibly predatory publishers was used to identify publications by these publishers for each university over time. The evolution of publications in predatory or semi-predatory publishers as a percentage of the total for the two universities is shown in the figure below.

The results confirm the substantial penetration of potentially and/or possibly predatory journals into Greek scientific output from 2018 onwards. This trend is attributed to two main factors: the escalating pressure on researchers and institutions to publish an increasing number of papers in international journals, often with minimal emphasis on the quality of the work produced(creating a demand for “fast” and “effortless” publications), and the fast growth of these journals (supply adjustment). Moreover, the quantitative nature of the state’s evaluation framework for assessing the scientific output of universities, which partially determines their public funding, indirectly incentives publications in such journals.

Among the various complications caused by the infiltration of predatory journals in academia, two are particularly significant for Greek (and not only) universities. The first pertains to the inefficient allocation of precious and limited public resources for cutting-edge scientific research, while the second addresses the core determinant of quality in science: namely, human capital. In particular, during selection and promotion procedures for academic or research staff, predatory publications can distort the process of identifying the most scientifically competent candidate. There is a need for additional awareness, and emphasis must be placed on the quality of published research. Overall, we cannot remain passive in the face of this globally recognized challenge. Addressing this issue requires a concerted effort by scientists and institutions to safeguard the integrity of scientific research.

References  

Bohannon, J. (2013). Who’s Afraid of Peer Review? Science 342,60-65.

Freedman  E., and B. Kurambayev (2023).The Rising number of ‘predatory’ academic journals undermines researchand public trust in scholarship. The Conversation,19/9/2023.

Marina, T., and I. Sterligov (2021). Prevalence of potentially predatory publishing in Scopus on the country level. Scientometrics 126, 5019-5077.

Moher D. et al. (2017a). Stop this waste of people, animals, and money. Nature 549, 23-25.

Richtig G, et al. (2023) Predatory journals: Perception, impact and use of Beall’s list by the scientific community-A bibliometric big data study. PLOS ONE 18, e0287547.

Sorokowski P. (2017b). Predatory journals recruit fake editor. Nature 543, 481-483.

Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of Greece@LSE, the Hellenic Observatory or the London School of Economics.