On Tuesday 30 April 2024, Connor Horsfall, Director of the Young China Watchers (YCW) and a Senior Consultant at Shearwater Global, led a panel discussion to assess China’s space ambitions, the motivations driving Beijing’s space strategy, and how western governments should view these developments. The panellists consisted of Robert Kerby, International Intelligence and Security at Planet Labs, James Kynge, Global China Editor at the Financial Times, Juliana Suess, Research Analyst and Policy Lead on Space Security as part of the Military Sciences team at RUSI, and Dimitrios Stroikos, LSE Fellow in the Department of International Relations and Head of the Space Policy Programme at LSE IDEAS.
L to R: Connor Horsfall, Juliana Suess, Robert Kerby, James Kynge, Dimitrios Stroikos, and Chris Alden (Chair)
To some, this topic may seem absurd. Have we truly entered the space age of geopolitics? If several experts coming together to discuss Chinese space ambitions says anything, it is that we are indeed in a new era. While any discussion surrounding this issue will inevitably be heavily intertwined with the technical aspects of space activity, at its core it is still grounded in the familiar classic debates of International Relations. The range of panellists perfectly reflects the nature of this debate.
Robert Kerby embodied more of the technical part, addressing the ways in which space can be used to achieve policy goals such as security, sustainability and prosperity. He underscores the fact that these are inseparable, and that China recognises this. China’s space capabilities will soon outstrip the United States’, he says, notably with a new satellite constellation that will offer the best Earth observation technology.
Juliana Seuss began by pointing out how reliant we are on space today, from internet access to terrestrial military uses. She brought very interesting questions to the table, such as whether conflict in space is likely, and how we would even define such a conflict. The more reliant we are on space, the greater the deterrent to fighting a space war. China has quickly outpaced Russia as a space power, but has not yet deployed its capabilities for space warfare. It is able to jam signals, but that technology is already commercially available.
All speakers agreed that the politicisation of outer space is under way, and that the stakes are high
Meanwhile, James Kynge brought his own insight to the table as someone who studies China outside the realm of space. China’s domestic manufacturing capability is very efficient, and this is a big boost to its space ambitions. Its “space dream” is parallel to its “China dream”, to achieve the rejuvenation of the Chinese people.
Finally, Dimitrios Stroikos contributed heavily to the IR side of the discussion, mentioning the hierarchy of space powers and how that determines the political dynamics of outer space. He stressed the need to find areas where the US and China can cooperate, such as removing space debris. In order for China to truly become a space power, it must be regarded as such by other countries.
All speakers agreed that the politicisation of outer space is under way, and that the stakes are high. China is seeking to increase its prestige and become the dominant space power, which poses a threat to US space leadership. However, the general consensus was that the two countries could and must still find ways to cooperate, as it is essential to maintaining stability in such a crucial area for humanity.
Event report by Victor El-Khoury, BSc International Relations and Chinese
This article represents the views of the author, and not the position of the Department of International Relations, nor of the London School of Economics.
