On 13 August 2024, the UN chief António Guterres called for the inclusion of Africa in the permanent seat of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). In his address, Mr Guterres noted that, “the world has changed since 1945, but the composition of the Council, despite a few changes, has not kept pace.” Similarly, on 12 September 2024, the United States announced its support for the African continent to be allocated two permanent seats at the UNSC, but with no veto power. The move by the US was to repair its diplomatic relations with Africa, where criticisms have been levelled against Washington’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Also, the attempt by the US was also to back the proposition viewed as a trade-off for democracy deficit in Africa, and reaffirming the power and commitment of the UN to democratic values, and to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the global south.

On 12 September 2024, the United States announced its support for the African continent to be allocated two permanent seats at the UNSC, but with no veto power.

However, as Africa continues to battle with the myriad challenges – deadly conflicts, hunger, democratic deficit, terrorism, military coups, underdevelopment, etc. – which will continue to attract the attention of the UNSC in the foreseeable future, a disturbing record shows that 78 of the UNSC’s annual meetings held in 2023 on issues affecting country or region globally (38.24 percent) were focused on matters affecting Africa, surpassing any other region. Similarly, based on the escalating and protracted conflicts in Africa, of the 49 formal resolutions adopted in 2023 that focused on country or regional matters, more than half (51.02 percent) of the Council’s decisions dealt with Africa, a troubling scenario that has placed Africa in a red spotlight as a continent with unending conflicts.

Which countries will represent Africa in the UNSC’s permanent seat?

The call for equitable representation in the UNSC was made in September 2004, at the UN High-Level Committee’s proposal to increase the number of Security Council members. At this Summit, Egypt and Nigeria volunteered, Senegal proposed a two-tiered solution on a rotatory system between Francophone and Anglophone countries. Others suggested that South Africa is the preferred choice for the position. Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa have the third-largest population in Africa. However, since 2004, there have been dissenting voices and points of disagreement on the right choice for the African Union for the seat at UNSC.

Since 2004, there have been dissenting voices and points of disagreement on the right choice for the African Union for the seat at UNSC.

South Africa

South Africa has strong diplomatic weight and the geostrategic advantage in fostering African interest at the UN.  Since the Republic of South Africa currently belongs to the BRICS, an economic group and alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, one should expect Pretoria to be able to use its diplomatic advantage to advocate the AU’s strategic interests at the UN. On the other hand, the alignment of South Africa with Russia, India, Brazil and China for common currency against the reliance on US dollar poses a challenge for Pretoria’s emergence as Africa’s representative in the UNSC, but with no veto power, as proclaimed by Washington.

Given the strong geostrategic advantage of economic diplomacy wielded by South Africa within and outside Africa, Washington has already considered that South Africa may eventually ascend to the UNSC’s permanent seat. On that basis, Washington would push for Africa’s representation in the UNSC without veto power, as Pretoria’s alignment with BRICS could serve as threats against Washington’s national interests in matters that affect Africa which South Africa could veto.  

Washington would push for Africa’s representation in the UNSC without veto power, as Pretoria’s alignment with BRICS could serve as threats against Washington’s national interests

Nigeria

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, but lacks the credibility and capability to lead and represent Africa in the UNSC because of the full range of security challenges, such as terrorism, cybercrimes, communal clashes, internal socio-economic and political challenges ranging from torture and poor human rights records, poverty, unemployment and democratic deficit. Nigeria does not belong to the BRICS but does have sub-regional influence and clout within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), similar to South Africa’s influence within the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Although Nigeria has strong bilateral economic relations with China it lacks the political legitimacy and economic power to influence China, France, Washington and Russia, to ascend to the UNSC’s permanent seat. Considering the strong relationship between Nigeria, Washington and Britain in the areas of Nigeria’s oil and gas, China is currently asserting its economic influence and dominance, spearheading and building electronic systems of surveillance for 5,000 km along Nigeria’s borders, entrapping Nigeria further in debt servicing with China, a scenario which further heightens Nigeria’s international debt profile at the World Bank.

Nigeria has strong bilateral economic relations with China [but] it lacks the political legitimacy and economic power to influence China, France, Washington and Russia, to ascend to the UNSC’s permanent seat.

Egypt

Egypt’s ascension to the UNSC has some drawbacks. First, Egypt is a transcontinental country spanning the northeast corner of Africa and the Sinai Peninsula in the southwest corner of Asia. Egypt has had quiet diplomacy in African affairs at the level of the AU since its establishment in 2002 until suspension of its membership in 2013, following the removal of Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, from power by the military. This undermines and questions its commitment to the AU and its capability to represent Africa at the UNSC. Although it was reinstated back into the AU in 2014, its transcontinental location in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia dichotomy could serve as hindrance to gaining the support of the AU’s members for Africa’s representation in the UNSC’s permanent seat.

[Egypt’s] transcontinental location in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia dichotomy could serve as hindrance to gaining the support of the AU’s members for Africa’s representation in the UNSC’s permanent seat.

What to watch for

Nigeria and South Africa could face an uphill task in their quests to emerge as Africa’s representatives at the UNSC. If Washington’s campaign and suggestion for two permanent seats to Africa without veto power are backed by the remaining four permanent members – Britain, France, Russia and China – then there is a high chance that South Africa may emerge without much push back from Washington and with the support of the rest of the permanent members. Egypt could fair well for Africa’s representation in the global body, but with some challenges, including its transcontinental origins in the Arab world and Middle East.

Also, as Africa continues to battle with different crises (eg the resurgence of coups in the Sahel, Sudanese conflict, tensions between Rwanda and DRC, militant uprisings in the Sahel etc), it remains unclear and doubtful whether Africa would be able overcome some of its challenges if granted permanent seats in the UNSC. The majority of the problems facing Africa today have been attributed to bad governance, which has historically subjected the people of Africa to poverty and under-development. The inclusion of Africa in the Council might not bring the desired solutions to African problems as envisaged. However, time would tell whether the power politics within the UNSC would allow the calls for reforms of the UN to come to fruition.  

…it remains unclear and doubtful whether Africa would be able overcome some of its challenges if granted permanent seats in the UNSC.

This article represents the views of the author, and not the position of the Department of International Relations, nor of the London School of Economics.