On 20 March 2025, the Department of International Relations at LSE hosted the event “The future of Europe’s security after three years of war in Ukraine: approaching crunch time?”, featuring insights from Ambassador Pierre Vimont, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Europe Foundation and a former French Ambassador to the USA, Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform, and Armida van Rij, a Senior Research fellow at Chatham House. The session was chaired by Professor Karen E Smith from LSE’s Department of International Relations.
L to R: Karen E Smith (Chair), Pierre Vimont, Armida van Rij, and Charles Grant
The war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, Trump’s second term is unfolding, and Europe finds itself in a fragile and highly unpredictable security environment. With all the challenges, including internal EU divisions, uncertain NATO’s future and other concerns, the future of European security seems to be an existential question worth in-depth discussion.
Charles Grant started by listing Donald Trump’s presidency consequences, where the negative implications, as he highlights, prevail. They include the weakening of the liberal international order, a stall in globalisation efforts, and a fall of trust in US-led alliances, all of which would satisfy autocracies like Russia or China. Among the positive aspects: Trump’s presidency pushes Europe toward greater defence cooperation, but it also brings risks of Ukraine’s isolation and diminishes NATO’s credibility. As Charles Grant noted, if the US signals a retreat, Europe must be fully ready to “take over” NATO’s core functions.
Europe’s “coherent response is needed”, where the priority of supporting Ukraine both militarily and diplomatically is respected and Europe’s ability to withstand the external pressures is preserved.
Armida van Rij highlighted that, while EU unity surged in 2022, it is now declining. Though most states push forward on defence integration and Ukraine support, others, like Hungary and Slovakia, block these efforts. Meanwhile, Europe’s reliance on US military tech, Russia’s energy imports and Chinese markets leaves it geopolitically divided and economically vulnerable. Thus, Europe’s “coherent response is needed”, where the priority of supporting Ukraine both militarily and diplomatically is respected and Europe’s ability to withstand the external pressures is preserved.
Ambassador Pierre Vimont emphasised that the situation with European and global security may be even more complicated than it seems. Ceasefire talks in Ukraine may be fragile, US and Russia may go for a relations reset, NATO’s role in sustaining nuclear security may shift, and Europe’s long-term security strategy is already in question.
Nevertheless, disregarding the rising uncertainty, a window opens for the EU to lead on Ukraine, leverage its sanctions, and shape a post-war order. In the final part of the discussion, the Ambassador also noted the approaching militarisation of Europe, which, for EU countries, may mean cutting a social sector and setting war economies – just like Russia already has.
Europe stands at a crossroads, where decisive unity can secure its stable future in an increasingly unstable world.
From my point of view, the main takeaway from this fruitful and engaging discussion is the following: Europe stands at a crossroads, where decisive unity can secure its stable future in an increasingly unstable world.
Event report by Mariia Dovbysh
MSc International Political Economy
LinkedIn: Mariia-dov
Instagram: @mardj.do
This article represents the views of the author, and not the position of the Department of International Relations, nor of the London School of Economics.
